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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Pat Forde

Forde-Yard Dash: College Football Playoff Scenarios Leave Room for Chaos in Week 14

Playoff (Organization) Football James Madison Oklahoma (Organization) CFP Notre Dame (Organization) SEC SI Texas BYU

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where involving the kickers in actual contact is always a risk:

First Quarter: Nothing in the CFP Is Settled

The regular season will be over Saturday night, and yet as of now exactly one FBS team has cemented a spot in a conference championship game. Take a bow, Sun Belt East Division champion James Madison (1), for being first to the party.

The other 17 spots in championship week remain undecided with just a single week to go. The season has delivered in terms of cliffhanger conference races that are brimming with tiebreaker arcana.

That said, we can at least make several firm suppositions about what’s to come regarding the College Football Playoff.

The straightest shot into the bracket with a prime position guaranteed belongs to Indiana (2), which merely has to beat Big Ten last-place rival Purdue on Saturday. The Hoosiers are favored by four touchdowns in that one. If they’re somehow upset, it would be the worst loss for any playoff team, which could knock them out of a first-round bye. But if they win, the only thing at stake in the Big Ten championship game would be the No. 1 seed (which would come with a Rose Bowl bid, which last happened for Indiana in 1967).

Texas A&M (3) and Ohio State (4) are locks to make the field, no matter what happens the rest of the way. But they both face rivalry games against ranked opponents on the road this week. The Aggies, who have played a relatively light SEC schedule, are favored by just 2.5 points at Texas. The Buckeyes are favored by 11.5 at Michigan, but the entire world knows the recent history of that series, so count on nothing until it actually happens.

Then there are a couple of near-locks (5):

Georgia (10–1) only needs to beat Georgia Tech on Friday to make it a formality. If the Bulldogs lose that game, make the SEC title game and lose that as well, the conversation around a 10–3 team on a losing streak takes on a different tone. If they lose to Tech and don’t enter the double-jeopardy round of a conference championship game, they’re very likely in at 10–2.

Texas Tech (10–1) has steamrolled 10 teams and lost a close one to a good opponent (Arizona State) on the road. Tech is a solid favorite at West Virginia on Saturday, but beware: It would be a bad loss against a 4–7 team that might lead to further scrutiny of the Red Raiders’ pitiful non-conference schedule—not to mention the overall merits of the Big 12. For whoever makes the Big 12 title game—and it’s likely a Texas Tech-BYU rematch—the surest way into the bracket is by claiming the automatic bid.

Those two are followed by a flight of win-and-in teams (6). If they lose, they join a crowded resume contest:

Mississippi (10–1) has to hope the theater-of-the-absurd Lane Kiffin Sweepstakes doesn’t affect its Egg Bowl rivalry game against Mississippi State on Friday. The Rebels are favored by 8.5 points, but the setup could scarcely be worse—facing a hungry home underdog that needs the win for bowl eligibility, while wondering whether their coach is staying or going. Put it this way: If Ole Miss loses and somehow drops out of the playoff, Kiffin had better leave. Or if the Rebels win to finish 11–1 but Kiffin leaves before the playoff, it could impact their seeding—which would also instantly transform him from hero to hated in Oxford.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning yells at Oregon wide receiver Malik Benson — Dan Lanning’s Oregon boosted its CFP chances with a win over USC on Saturday. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon (10–1) certainly helped itself with a 15-point win over USC on Saturday, its first victory over a currently ranked opponent. But the Ducks still must go to Washington on Saturday—and Dan Lanning is winless (0–3) against the Huskies away from Autzen Stadium.

Oklahoma (9–2) needs to defeat an unraveling LSU team at home Saturday. The Sooners have the necessary quality wins (Alabama, Michigan, Tennessee, Missouri) and no bad losses (Texas and Mississippi). But a third regular-season loss would shove Oklahoma down into those under consideration for what look like the last two at-large spots.

For now, those belong to two bluebloods (7) who are probably in with a Saturday win:

Alabama (9–2) plays in its house of nightmares, Jordan-Hare Stadium, on Saturday in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide has several good wins (at Georgia, at Missouri and at home over Tennessee and Vanderbilt). They also have a home loss to Oklahoma and an increasingly bad loss to a 5–6 Florida State team that has been largely forgiven until recently. Beating the Bulldogs in Athens is probably the resume win that gets the Tide in at 10–2, but they need to take care of business at a place where their business historically is difficult.

Notre Dame (9–2) visits a Stanford team that has shown some pluck in recent weeks but will be severely outmanned. The Irish have stomped nine straight opponents to counterbalance close losses in the first two games against quality teams (Miami and Texas A&M). The threats to the Irish come from teams currently outside the bracket. Which we’ll get to.

The other automatic bids (8):

The ACC champion gets in and likely gets a No. 11 seed and a first-round road game. If Virginia beats Virginia Tech and SMU beats California, the Cavaliers and Mustangs are the title-game matchup. Both those things should happen, but Cal rarely performs as expected. The Golden Bears have been blown out twice this year as a favorite and won three times as an underdog. They’ll be a double-digit home ’dog against SMU. There are a variety of other options in the least predictable power conference.

The Group of 5 champion will get the No. 12 seed, with the previously mentioned James Madison (10–1) in a potential résumé contest with any of three teams from the American (North Texas, Tulane and Navy). Most likely American winners this week: Tulane, which hosts last-place Charlotte on Saturday; and North Texas, which hosts Temple on Friday. Hopefully the coaches have their minds on the task at hand, and not other jobs.

James Madison Dukes linebacker Gannon Weathersby celebrates — Could James Madison find its way into the Playoff as the Group of 5 representative? | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Now, the pursuers who are on the bubble (9):

BYU (10–1) is facing a second straight season of disrespect from the CFP selection committee. Last year, the Cougars couldn’t get much love while going 10–2. This year, with a 22-point loss to Texas Tech as the lone blemish, they’re currently one spot out of the bracket. If BYU beats Central Florida to finish 11–1 and plays a closer game against the Red Raiders in the Big 12 title game, would that be enough to win over some hearts and minds?

Miami is 9–2 and lurking. If the Hurricanes clobber Pittsburgh on the road Saturday—in conditions that are not favorable to South Floridians—it will intensify the Notre Dame debate. The Irish won at Pitt by 22 points; if Miami wins by a comparable or greater spread, it could intensify the debate about why the Irish are ranked four spots ahead of a two-loss Canes team it lost to.

Then there is Michigan (9–2), which hasn’t beaten much of anyone but could add the best win of the season for anyone with another upset of Ohio State. That could be enough to vault the Wolverines into a different realm of the conversation than they’ve been in all year.

Vanderbilt (9–2) is currently sixth in the SEC pecking order, but could mount a challenge to that by winning at Tennessee. Among two-loss SEC teams, Oklahoma beat Alabama and Alabama beat Vandy, so the Commodores might need some help to vault past them. In addition to winning in Knoxville, Vandy will be rooting for Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, LSU and Auburn this weekend to bloody its SEC playoff competition.

Texas (8–3) is the lone three-loss team currently in contention, and the working theory is that beating 11–0 Texas A&M would be the launching pad back into the bracket. Still: The Longhorns not only have the most losses of any contender but probably the worst loss, to 3–8 Florida.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a pass — Arch Manning (16) accounted for six of Texas’s touchdowns against Arkansas on Saturday. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Utah (9–2) has lost to two good teams (Texas Tech and BYU) but beaten nobody of note. The Utes’ Hail Mary at-large playoff plan is to make the Big 12 title game (with the help of a major upset) and lose an epic battle there on a walk-off field goal. But they might also slide down from their current No. 13 ranking this week, falling behind some competitors on this list, which could eliminate any at-large hopes.