Let’s preface this argument by saying Jimmy Garoppolo very likely won’t win the MVP. Players like Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson have been playing at an MVP-level all season, while Garoppolo has played at that level the past month and a half. However, even with his slow start to the season, his play over the last six weeks should be something that puts Garoppolo in the MVP conversation.
Garoppolo started the season with a pedestrian 219 yards per game with seven touchdowns and six interception for a passer rating of 90.8 in his first six games. While the numbers don’t jump off the screen, he was good enough to help lead the 49ers to a 6-0 record.
In the seven games since that point, Garoppolo’s numbers spiked to 275.9 yards per game with 18 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. The 49ers notched wins in five of those seven games. The two losses came on last-second field goals to the Ravens and Seahawks. The increase in production coincided with the addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and the emergence of rookie receiver Deebo Samuel.
In his 13 starts this season, Garoppolo has a completion rate of 69.4, with 3,245 yards for an average of 249.6 per game. He’s tossed 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That’s good for a 103.9 passer rating.
If he can maintain his yards per game, passer rating, and completion percentage, Garoppolo would be the sixth quarterback since the 1970 merger to finish a season with those numbers. He would join Joe Montana, Drew Brees (five times), Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins as the only quarterbacks to finish a season with that stat line.
While numbers play a significant role in deciding who belongs in the MVP discussion, team success and narratives are also key factors. That’s why the 49ers’ 11-2 start after a 4-12 finish a year ago, and Garoppolo’s level of play in the final two months of the season matter. The timing of his elevated play undoubtedly bolsters his case in a way raw numbers don’t.
For example, Garoppolo had an MVP moment Sunday when he led the 49ers to a 48-46 win in New Orleans where he finished 26-of-35 for 349 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. He also gets credit for leading the game-winning drive with a huge assist from George Kittle. Sunday was the 49ers quarterback’s third fourth-quarter comeback and third game-winning drive. He earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for his performance.
It’s extremely unlikely Garoppolo does enough in the remaining three games to earn himself an MVP award over someone like Jackson who’s taken the league by storm. What Garoppolo has earned is the right for his name to be put in with the likes of Jackson and Wilson as a player who should be at least considered for the coveted award.
