Leeds v Derby
Away from all of the talk of peering over fences and peeking through bushes, at least 180 minutes of on-field entertainment will separate these bickering teams. Marcelo Bielsa’s side need to stop the rot, and fast, having warmed up for the tail end of the season by losing to the worst team in the division. As for Derby, they should take confidence from their recent run of four wins in six matches. History suggests Leeds, despite flagging, have the best chance of being promoted. Since 1992, the inception of the play-off system in its current four-team format involving the teams between third and sixth, the third-placed team have the most favourable record. In those 27 seasons, that team have won promotion on 10 occasions (37%), compared with fourth four times (15%), fifth eight times (30%), and sixth five times (18%). In the past 10 seasons, the third-placed side have won promotion on five occasions. The worrying thing, as Bielsa said, is that his squad will struggle to “reproduce the same level of performance” again next season.
West Brom v Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s last game was their most meaningless of the season. The next two are anything but. Having sewn up fifth place, Dean Smith rested five players in a narrow defeat by Norwich, including Jack Grealish, John McGinn and Tyrone Mings. They surrendered their 12-match unbeaten run – they won 10 in a row – but have preserved some priceless energy for consecutive West Midlands derbies. Mings has been magnificent since arriving on loan from Bournemouth and McGinn has proved a ubiquitous presence in midfield. For Grealish, 23, will this be his last crack at hoisting Villa, his club since the age of six, back into the big time? “For me personally, I think this is the year we’ve got to get promoted, really,” he said. “I feel like this is going to be our year.” Since being handed the captaincy by Smith in November, Grealish has tasted defeat only twice in the 19 matches he has played. Daring, direct and peerless in possession, Grealish is a class act. If West Brom are to prevent Villa from going one better than last year, when they lost to Fulham in the play-off final, then stopping Grealish will be a necessity.
Portsmouth v Sunderland
Recent history suggests this has the makings of a humdinger. On Saturday these teams will meet for the third time in 41 days, having duelled at Wembley in the Checkatrade Trophy final, which Portsmouth won on penalties, before drawing 1-1 at the Stadium of Light two weeks ago. There are unlikely to be too many surprises for either manager but, for Jack Ross, who swapped St Mirren for Sunderland last summer, it represents the biggest game of his managerial career. Ross must find a way to reinvigorate a flailing squad that has won only one of the past seven matches. When asked whether his players were able to handle the pressure after defeat by Portsmouth in March, Ross said: “If we don’t succeed this season, it will certainly not be anything to do with strength of character because that is there in abundance.” Sunderland have won none of their past nine meetings with Portsmouth, last recording victory in January 2008, in a Premier League fixture. For whichever heavyweight loses, next season threatens to be a real slog.
Charlton v Doncaster
Nineteen years on from being handed his Newcastle debut by Sir Bobby Robson, James Coppinger is more than just making up the numbers. At Doncaster, where he has spent the past 15 seasons, he remains an integral player; Sunday will be his 621st appearance for the club and his 50th of this campaign, during which he has contributed four goals and 14 assists. Last week the evergreen winger signed a new one-year contract with Doncaster, who squeezed into sixth and whose manager, Grant McCann, is one year his senior. “To still be performing is the biggest thing for me and I still feel really good physically,” Coppinger said. “I didn’t really mature until I was 26, 27 and it’s stood in me good stead. I’ve contributed as much as anybody so I think just because I’m 38 it would be a shame to retire.”
Forest Green v Tranmere
Micky Mellon’s side head into the play-offs in unconvincing form – a run of one win in their past seven games put paid to their automatic promotion hopes – but they came up from the National League via this route last season. Tranmere’s wobble includes defeat by Forest Green at Prenton Park last month but, if they can exact revenge on Friday, they will be half way to their second Wembley appearance in 12 months. There is no need for them to panic and the chance of successive promotions should not be sniffed at. “There is no doom and gloom here,” Mellon said. Tranmere have a serial goalscorer in James Norwood (54 goals in his past 96 games) but have won none of their past six meetings against Forest Green, including a National League play-off final defeat two years ago. “We definitely owe them one”, the goalkeeper Scott Davies said. “We’ve got a bit of history with them.”
Newport v Mansfield
That Manchester City were the last team to win at Newport speaks volumes about the task facing Mansfield. The League Two winners Lincoln, as well as promoted Bury, came unstuck at Rodney Parade last month. Mike Flynn’s side may have snuck into the play-offs but they are determined to seize the opportunity. On the final day of last season they were celebrating survival, a year on from the greatest of escapes, staying up despite being 11 points adrift with 12 games to play. It is the sort of context that helps put the superb job Flynn has done into perspective. And that is before factoring in two fine FA Cup runs, overcoming Leicester and Middlesbrough this season after beating Leeds and taking Tottenham to a replay last year. “We have a bottom-three budget, but we have a formula that means we have a group of lads who play above themselves more often than not,” Flynn said. Mansfield slid out of the race for automatic promotion after losing their last three matches but possess several threats, notably the Nottingham Forest loanees Tyler Walker and Jorge Grant.
Play-off schedule
Thursday 9 May: League Two – Newport County v Mansfield Town, 7.45pm
Friday 10 May: League Two – Tranmere Rovers v Forest Green Rovers, 7.45pm
Saturday 11 May: Championship – Aston Villa v West Bromwich Albion, 12.30pm; Championship – Derby County v Leeds United, 5.15pm; League One – Sunderland v Portsmouth, 7.30pm
Sunday 12 May: League One – Doncaster Rovers v Charlton Athletic, 12.15pm; League Two – Mansfield Town v Newport County, 6pm
Monday 13 May: League Two – Forest Green Rovers v Tranmere Rovers, 7.45pm
Tuesday 14 May: Championship – West Bromwich Albion v Aston Villa, 8pm
Wednesday 15 May: Championship – Leeds United v Derby County, 7.45pm
Thursday 16 May: League One – Portsmouth v Sunderland, 7.45pm
Friday 17 May: League One – Charlton Athletic v Doncaster Rovers, 7.45pm
Saturday 25 May: League Two play-off final, Wembley, 3pm
Sunday 26 May: League One play-off final, Wembley, 3pm
Monday 27 May: Championship play-off final, Wembley, 3pm
