Food items including potatoes, onions, lettuce, cabbage, fruit and rice are hit by extreme weather that exceeded historical precedent, raising inflation and prices for consumers, a new report shows. The study is released ahead of an important United Nations food summit, to open on Sunday in Ethiopia.
The research, released this Monday, was conducted by an interdisciplinary team including the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), European Central Bank (ECB), University of Aberdeen and the Food Foundation.
It shows that British potatoes, Californian vegetables, South African maize and Indian onions are among many foods affected by recent price shocks driven by climate extremes, according to their team of international scientists.
The study, titled Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks, was led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.
It investigated examples across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024) where price spikes were associated with heat, drought and heavy precipitation that was so extreme it exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.
It shows, for instance, that in Ethiopia, food prices were 40 percent higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought.
In California and Arizona in the United States, vegetable prices increased 80 percent in November 2022 after the extreme drought in western states.
In the UK, potato prices increased 22 percent (from January to February 2024) following extreme winter rainfall that scientists said was made 20 percent heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change.
South Korean cabbage, Japanese rice and Brazilian coffee are also among the many foods that have been hit by price hikes following extreme climate events since 2022, the team of international scientists has found.
Among other examples are a 280 percent spike in global cocoa prices in April 2024, following a heatwave in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and a 300 percent jump in lettuce prices in Australia after floods in 2022.
More expensive, less healthy food
Research by the Food Foundation also shows that, on average, healthy food is twice as expensive per calorie as less healthy food, and that, when prices increase, low-income households are likely to cut back on nutritious foods like fruit and vegetables because they can’t afford them.
Climate change-induced food price shocks could therefore exacerbate a range of health outcomes, from malnutrition to a range of chronic diet-related conditions including coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and many cancers.
There is also growing evidence connecting food insecurity and poor diets with mental health outcomes.
Maximillian Kotz, Marie Curie Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Barcelona Supercomputing Center and lead author of the study, said that “until we get to net zero emissions extreme weather will only get worse, but it's already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world."
Rising food prices are now number two on the list of climate impacts, he added, saying that most people see the impact in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself.
“Sadly, when the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods," he added. "Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease."
According to Shona Goudie, Policy and Advocacy Manager at The Food Foundation, “healthy food shouldn’t be a luxury, but soaring food prices in recent years have made it increasingly difficult for parents to afford to put healthy food on the table for their families. In fact, the latest government data shows that Brits are consuming far below the required minimum of five fruit and veg a day."
Increasingly frequent price shocks due to climate change could see food insecurity and health inequalities deteriorate even further without action from governments, she added.
Call to action
The research comes ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake, which opens on Sunday 27 July in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
World leaders will meet at the summit to discuss threats to the global food system.
The event will be co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy, both of whom have been hit by climate change-induced food price shocks and are featured in the study.
The world has currently warmed by an average of about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, but analysis by the UN has found that the current trajectory is for around 3°C of warming, which it says will be "debilitating".
More killer heat and rising seas likely in next five years, UN warns
2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, then overtaken by 2024. As early as December last year, experts at the UK Met Office predicted that 2025 will be one of the top three hottest years alongside them.
