Jan. 05--Predictions for the will-be hot trends of 2016 are about as common as hangovers on January 1. Sure, food forecasts issued by various industry associations, trend spotters, mass marketers and food companies are sometimes interesting -- but how much weight can we place in them?
"They certainly can matter," says Josh Schonwald, author of "The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food." "They can have an influence on the herd. They can spark interest of other restaurateurs or major consumers."
That said, they can also fall flat. Schonwald tackled the bewildering plethora of year-end predictions a year ago for Time magazine. Faced with winnowing out "The Next Big Thing," he asked six experts to pick "one big food prediction for 2015." The responses ranged from "the rise of fat" to millet as the new quinoa to harissa as the next Sriracha to a growing range of foods made with insects, like insect flour.
Clearly, harissa didn't oust Sriracha, and we don't see Panera introducing millet bowls. As far as insects, though, Schonwald sees "a lot more energy around companies processing insects for food."
People need to "critically examine" the predictions they're seeing, Schonwald said. Is the source of the prediction serving a particular interest? Is what you're reading mere click bait -- provocative items designed to appeal to curious readers?
Also, the most accurate predictions for a new year are already bubbling up in restaurants before the previous year's end. Take Hawaiian food: It's being touted by some as "the next big thing" for 2016, says Bret Thorn, senior food editor at Nation's Restaurant News -- especially poke, which he's already seeing on sushi menus in Denver.
It's less about eating the first arugula leaf or quinoa kernel, said Clark Wolf, a restaurant industry consultant, and "more about public focus to the point where all kind of media and restaurants and food shops simply have to pay attention."
Amid all the speculation and predictions and sources, is there one major theme for 2016?
"The overarching trend is people want to feel more connected with the food," replied Thorn. "They want to know the back story. Is this somebody's grandmother's recipe or an authentic reproduction of what someone ate in a village in Campagna? That's the story you tell."
Other predictions for 2016:
Brett Thorn says: Wine drinkers willing to explore unknown varietals and, generally, "a growing sense of culinary adventure as more people seem willing to try new things." Chefs continuing to "DIY everything," from making their own kimchee and butter to butchering livestock and growing mushrooms in their basements. Also: shake "shooters" -- small, 3- or 4-ounce milkshakes sporting "a couple of hundred calories and costing a couple of bucks."
Clark Wolf says: A growing consciousness about climate change having an impact on the food world. So-called "ancient" grains will be hot because they "are nutritionally powerful," old-fashioned or gluten-free, he said. And the concept of fine dining will be less interesting. "Who cares? Who are we showing off to?"
For even more predictions, scroll through the slideshow above.
wdaley@tribpub.com
Twitter @billdaley
