Tony Blair's breakfast reading must have been painful this morning, given the widespread view that his Commons defeat represents the beginning of the end for his premiership.
That was the exact headline used by both the Blair-hating Daily Mail and the New Labour-supporting Times and most of the papers opine that his date of departure is drawing nearer.
While our commentariat in the press are paid generous salaries to give us their predictions of his departure date, what about the political betting community, the only observers prepared to risk their own wallets?
A fascinating graph on politicalbetting.com shows how the money has moved massively behind an early Blair departure.
After his black Wednesday seven days ago, when he lost David Blunkett and survived a Commons vote by one, 36% of punters believed he'd still be in No 10 after December 2007. By the weekend, the figure was bumping along at about 32% and even rose slightly on Monday when he overruled Charles Clarke and said the government was sticking by 90 days' detention.
The money men took fright, though, at yesterday's PMQs, where Blair said he'd rather lose doing the right thing than win by doing wrong. By the end of the day only 24% believed he would still be there by December 2007.
A closer look at the betting reveals the odds on Blair going by Christmas have shortened to only 5-1.
Given that they are offering 6-4 on Blair surviving 2006, it's obvious the bookies have now started to look to a Brown premiership - no point betting on that, though, as the odds on Gordon getting his hands on the keys to No 10 are currently 1-8. A wiser outside bet on the next Labour leader might be the young blairite David Miliband, currently at 14-1, especially if David Cameron becomes leader of the Tories, as expected.
The odds on Miliband can only shorten after December 6, the thought being that Labour needs to skip a generation to neutralise the appeal of Mr Cameron. So if you fancy a flutter, now is the time.
