Florida vs Oklahoma: Goodyear Cotton Bowl prediction and game preview.
Florida vs Oklahoma: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Broadcast
Date: Wednesday, December 30
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Network: ESPN
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Florida (8-3) vs Oklahoma (8-2) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
– It’s only the second meeting ever between the two college football powerhouses, with the first a 24-14 Tim Tebow/Urban Meyer-led Gator victory over Sam Bradford’s Sooners for the 2008 national championship. This isn’t that, but the two offenses should put on a show in what could and should be among the highest-scoring firefights of the bowl season … maybe. Oklahoma and Florida each average 42 points per game, but …
– Florida star QB Kyle Trask is missing his phenomenal targets. TE Kyle Trask and receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are all skipping this to preserve the investment for the NFL.
Trask is still great, the Gators have plenty of strong young receivers who should step up, and head coach Dan Mullen knows how to win bowl games. He has won two in a row for Florida, four straight going back to his Mississippi State days and he’s 7-2 overall. Florida is 10-3 in bowls going back to 2004.
– Oklahoma lost late to Kansas State and Iowa State early in the season, matured and improved as the season went on, got a few key parts back in RB Rhamondre Stevenson and DE Ronnie Perkins in the middle of the campaign, and went on a seven-game winning run on the way to the Big 12 title.
QB Spencer Rattler got better and the offensive kept on improving as the team ended up sixth in the final CFP rankings. The program has lost its last three bowl games – all in the College Football Playoff; head coach Lincoln Riley has never won a bowl game – and five of the last six.
Why Florida, Oklahoma Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Florida Will Win, Why Oklahoma Will Win, Florida vs Oklahoma Prediction
Why Florida Will Win
– The offense is going to have to get creative without the top three receivers, but this is hardly a depleted attack with several excellent young weapons getting ready to break out. No, there isn’t a Kadarius Toney or Trevon Grimes quite yet, and there’s no replacing Kyle Pitts at tight end, but Jacob Copeland came through with a big game against LSU and there’s enough speed to keep stretching the field for …
– Kyle Trask. He’s just that good. The Florida offensive front is good at holding up in pass protection, and while he has a few blemishes on the resumé – the pick-sixes against LSU and Texas A&M hurt – he has only five picks on the season and 43 touchdown passes. He’s going to keep bombing away and keep the O moving against a Sooner secondary that just got hit for 322 yards by Iowa State’s Brock Purdy.
– The Florida defense is much-maligned for having problems against the better passing teams, and there just aren’t enough big stops on key downs, but this group can get to the quarterback. The Oklahoma offensive line allows a few too many tackles for loss, and QB Spencer Rattler can get pressured if the O isn’t in rhythm. The Gators came up with 33 sacks on the year and are 6-0 when generating three or more and unbeaten when coming up with six or more tackles for loss.
Why Oklahoma Will Win
– A bowl game with a relatively short time to prepare is no time to lose your three star receivers. Yeah, Florida has talent who’ll catch the ball, and yeah, the offense will keep moving, and yeah, it’s tough to lose 31 touchdown catches of production. And there’s one other key part to this.
The Oklahoma secondary hasn’t been bad. It’ll give up yards, but it only allowed multiple touchdown passes twice – giving up two to both Texas and Texas Tech – and picked off 13 passes on the year, partly because …
– The pass rush has been fantastic. The defense as a whole has been terrific – the Sooners are second in the nation against the run – thanks to an active front line that comes up with a ton of sacks and eight tackles for loss per game. It’s not that Florida can’t run – it just doesn’t. However, it’s not going to move too much against this active front.
– The Oklahoma receivers are going to rip though the Florida secondary. The Gators have only picked off nine passes on the year, and six of them came in two games. Granted, teams kept throwing to try keeping up the pace, but it worked. Florida allowed two or more touchdown passes nine times, and the run defense occasionally struggled when teams committed to the ground attack. Oklahoma can move the offense however it wants to.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Florida vs Oklahoma Prediction, Goodyear Cotton Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen
Here’s a very, very dangerous theory.
Yeah, the Oklahoma defense looked great, and yeah, the offense got better as the season went on as it all led up to a Big 12 Championship.
But that’s partly because the Sooners played a bunch of mediocre Big 12 teams.
Texas was able to give it a run in a 53-45 loss, and Iowa State went splitsies with the Sooners – the opposing passing game worked in all three games. They lost in both games – Kansas State and Iowa State – when allowing more than ten yards per throw.
Kyle Trask averages more than ten yards per throw.
The Oklahoma offense will work to keep this close, but this will be a fantastic fight with both offense trading big punches. The prevailing thought will be that the Sooners will take this because 1) the loss of so may key Gator targets and 2) turnovers. The Gators give up too many key ones.
How did LSU shock Florida? The Tigers were +3 in turnover margin. How did Kansas State shock Oklahoma? The Wildcats were +4 in turnover margin, and threw well.
It’ll be a blast of a game, and mistakes will matter, but expect Florida to overcome the key personnel losses with other parts rising up, and with Kyle Trask playing just a wee bit stronger than Spencer Rattler.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Florida vs Oklahoma Prediction, Line
Florida 38, Oklahoma 34
Bet on Florida vs Oklahoma with BetMGM
Oklahoma -3, o/u: 70
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1
– CFN Experts Picks: Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Must See Rating: 5
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
Goodyear Cotton Bowl History
Dec. 28, 2019 Penn State 53, Memphis 39
Dec. 29, CFP 2018 Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3
Dec. 29, 2017 Ohio State 24, USC 7
Jan. 2, 2017 Wisconsin 24, Western Michigan 16
Dec. 31, 2015 Alabama 38 Michigan State 0
Jan. 1, 2015 CFP Michigan State 42 Baylor 41
Jan. 3, 2014 Missouri 41 Oklahoma State 31
Jan. 4, 2013 Texas A&M 41 Oklahoma 13
Jan. 6, 2012 Arkansas 29 Kansas State 16
Jan. 7, 2011 LSU 41 Texas A&M 24
Jan. 1, 2010 Mississippi 21 Oklahoma State 7
Jan. 1, 2009 Mississippi 47 Texas Tech 34
Jan. 1, 2008 Missouri 38 Arkansas 7
Jan. 1, 2007 Auburn 17 Nebraska 14
Jan. 2, 2006 Alabama 13 Texas Tech 10
Jan. 1, 2005 Tennessee 38 Texas A&M 7
Jan. 2, 2004 Mississippi 31 Oklahoma State 28
Jan. 1, 2003 Texas 35 LSU 20
Jan. 1, 2002 Oklahoma 10 Arkansas 3
Jan. 1, 2001 Kansas State 35 Tennessee 21
Jan. 1, 2000 Arkansas 27 Texas 6
Jan. 1, 1999 Texas 38 Mississippi State 11
Jan. 1, 1998 UCLA 29 Texas A&M 23
Jan. 1, 1997 BYU 19 Kansas State 15
Jan. 1, 1996 Colorado 38 Oregon 6
Jan. 2, 1995 USC 55 Texas Tech 14
Jan. 1, 1994 Notre Dame 24 Texas A&M 21
Jan. 1, 1993 Notre Dame 28 Texas A&M 3
Jan. 1, 1992 Florida State 10 Texas A&M 2
Jan. 1, 1991 Miami 46 Texas 3
Jan. 1, 1990 Tennessee 31 Arkansas 27
Jan. 2, 1989 UCLA 17 Arkansas 3
Jan. 1, 1988 Texas A&M 35 Notre Dame 10
Jan. 1, 1987 Ohio State 28 Texas A&M 12
Jan. 1, 1986 Texas A&M 36 Auburn 16
Jan. 1, 1985 Boston College 45 Houston 28
Jan. 2, 1984 Georgia 10 Texas 9
Jan. 1, 1983 SMU 7 Pittsburgh 3
Jan. 1, 1982 Texas 14 Alabama 12
Jan. 1, 1981 Alabama 30 Baylor 2
Jan. 1, 1980 Houston 17 Nebraska 14
Jan. 1, 1979 Notre Dame 35 Houston 34
Jan. 2, 1978 Notre Dame 38 Texas 10
Jan. 1, 1977 Houston 30 Maryland 21
Jan. 1, 1976 Arkansas 31 Georgia 10
Jan. 1, 1975 Penn State 41 Baylor 20
Jan. 1, 1974 Nebraska 19 Texas 3
Jan. 1, 1973 Texas 17 Alabama 13
Jan. 1, 1972 Penn State 30 Texas 6
Jan. 1, 1971 Notre Dame 24 Texas 11
Jan. 1, 1970 Texas 21 Notre Dame 17
Jan. 1, 1969 Texas 36 Tennessee 13
Jan. 1, 1968 Texas A&M 20 Alabama 16
Dec. 31, 1966 Georgia 24 SMU 9
Jan. 1, 1966 LSU 14 Arkansas 7
Jan. 1, 1965 Arkansas 10 Nebraska 7
Jan. 1, 1964 Texas 28 Navy 6
Jan. 1, 1963 LSU 13 Texas 0
Jan. 1, 1962 Texas 12 Mississippi 7
Jan. 2, 1961 Duke 7 Arkansas 6
Jan. 1, 1960 Syracuse 23 Texas 14
Jan. 1, 1959 TCU 0 Air Force 0
Jan. 1, 1958 Navy 20 Rice 7
Jan. 1, 1957 TCU 28 Syracuse 27
Jan. 2, 1956 Mississippi 14 TCU 13
Jan. 1, 1955 Georgia Tech 14 Arkansas 6
Jan. 1, 1954 Rice 28 Alabama 6
Jan. 1, 1953 Texas 16 Tennessee 0
Jan. 1, 1952 Kentucky 20 TCU 7
Jan. 1, 1951 Tennessee 20 Texas 14
Jan. 2, 1950 Rice 27 North Carolina 13
Jan. 1, 1949 SMU 21 Oregon 13
Jan. 1, 1948 SMU 13 Penn State 13
Jan. 1, 1947 Arkansas 0 LSU 0
Jan. 1, 1946 Texas 40 Missouri 27
Jan. 1, 1945 Oklahoma State 34 TCU 0
Jan. 1, 1944 Texas 7 Randolph Field 7
Jan. 1, 1943 Texas 14 Georgia Tech 7
Jan. 1, 1942 Alabama 29 Texas A&M 21
Jan. 1, 1941 Texas A&M 13 Fordham 12
Jan. 1, 1940 Clemson 6 Boston College 3
Jan. 2, 1939 St. Mary’s 20 Texas Tech 13
Jan. 1, 1938 Rice 28 Colorado 14
Jan. 1, 1937 TCU 16 Marquette 6
