FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ South Florida is fully within Tropical Storm Isaias' forecast track as projections move it slightly more east.
Tropical Storm Isaias, which became the ninth named storm of a busy 2020 hurricane season late Wednesday night, saw its forecast track make a small move to the east in early Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center, with the center of that track keeping the core of the storm slightly off the shores of South Florida.
All of South Florida, however, remains in the forecast path of a storm that had tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 415 miles from the center in the latest advisory.
The system is projected to remain a tropical storm for its foreseeable duration (maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph). Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday, the NHC said Thursday.
Top wind speeds of 70 mph were predicted in a forecast discussion Thursday, which is just short of hurricane strength. Some models show it at hurricane strength near the US, according to the NHC.
In the 8 a.m. advisory, the storm was moving northwest at 20 mph and was about 125 miles west of Ponce in Puerto Rico and about 105 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
It is expected to continue aiming northwest with a dead-center pass over Hispaniola (the island that comprises the Dominican Republic and Haiti), contending with mountains as high as 10,000 feet.
Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is expected to continue on a northwest track until it reaches Florida, where a turn north is anticipated.
Tropical storm-force gusts could arrive here as early as Friday night, but Saturday is much more likely, NWS Miami said. The wind field is massive, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 415 miles north from the system's center.
It also said that "ahead of any impacts from the (impending) tropical system, most of the rainfall this week will be over the interior and Gulf coast of southern Florida," with rain chances increasing for Florida's east coast on Friday.
As the storm had been forecast to become a named entity on Wednesday, Thursday is expected to see it weaken as it goes over the storm-disrupting mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, with some restrengthening possible late this week.
There have been four other tropical storms so far this month: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-May, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
So far, Hanna has been the only hurricane of the season, striking Texas late last week as a strong Category 1 storm.
Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the high-altitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes. On July 8, Colorado State University issued a slightly more pessimistic outlook for hurricane season than its earlier forecast, upping the number of named storms from 19 to 20.
Broward Sheriff Gregory Tony said that it was "absolutely essential that the community begins to prepare" for Isaias and other potential storms that may come this hurricane season.
The sheriff made the comments during a virtual news conference on Wednesday.
Tony also addressed the impact that COVID-19 will likely have during hurricane season. He said the biggest hurdle officials anticipate is the ability to effectively social-distance while taking in large numbers of people at county storm shelters.
South Floridians should "start to examine what other opportunities or options they may have to be out of South Florida, to push inland or even to push out of the state in advance," Tony said.
"The more that we can do as individuals and focus on the things we can do to reduce the burden on government will be extremely helpful as the mayor, the county administrator are tackling different new challenges and trying to be innovative to the point where we're not shutting down government completely, but at the same time, we're not unnecessarily allowing for hazards and exposures to this virus."
