MIAMI _ The Florida Keys could feel stormy conditions from a strengthening Tropical Storm Laura on Monday, but mainland Florida appears to be clear of the storm's track, forecasters said Saturday, as the "disorganized" Laura is forecast to track away from the state after it passes by Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.
A tropical storm watch has been put into effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay, forecasters said in the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory.
Monroe County has declared a State of Local Emergency and ordered the evacuations of all live-aboard vessels, mobile homes, recreational vehicles, travel trailers and campers in anticipation of the storm.
Tropical Storm Laura is bringing heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico on Saturday, and forecasters expect it to menace Hispaniola on Saturday and parts of Cuba on Sunday on its path away from Florida. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could see between 3 and 8 inches of rain from Laura. The Dominican Republic and Haiti could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with a foot possible across southern areas, according to the hurricane center.
But while the Florida mainland is out of the cone, the Keys could feel storm conditions on Monday.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco, a second storm forecasters are watching in the Caribbean, saw "big changes" in its forecast track and could continue to see "volatile shifts," according to the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.
Both storms, if they survive their journey through the Caribbean, could threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast next week. Marco could be heading for Texas while Laura could menace Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.
On Saturday afternoon, the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm watch for Andros Island, and Cuba issued a tropical storm warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma.
On Friday, Gov. Ron DeSantis sent a letter to President Donald Trump requesting that he declare a pre-landfall emergency for Florida in anticipation of Tropical Storm Laura. He named 34 counties, including Miami-Dade, Monroe, Broward and Palm Beach.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA
Tropical Storm Laura formed in the Atlantic on Friday morning, and as of 5 p.m. Saturday, forecasters say it shouldn't be seeing additional intensification until Monday night as the storm moves over land over the next 48 hours.
Laura is expected to move away from Puerto Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.
Laura was about 100 miles west of Ponce, Puerto Rico, according to the 5 p.m. Saturday advisory from the hurricane center. It has 50-mph maximum sustained winds with higher gusts and is still traveling west at 18 mph.
The forecast track for Laura remains farther south, which is now showing mainland Florida outside its path and only a portion of the Florida Keys in the cone. But the National Weather Service in Miami tweeted Saturday afternoon that "some impact is STILL POSSIBLE over mainland South Florida, especially if Laura tracks north of the current forecast."
"The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative," forecasters said.
Forecasters also don't see Marco as aiding Laura in her path, "At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system."
South Florida may feel the effects of Laura as tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles from the center, mainly to the north, according to the National Hurricane Center. There is a about a 5-10% probability that mainland Miami-Dade County experiences tropical-storm force winds, defined as sustained winds of up to 73 mph. The chances are closer to 30 or 40% in parts of the Florida Keys.
"At this time, there is still too much uncertainty to determine specific impacts this system may have on South Florida," the National Weather Service said Saturday morning in its hazardous weather outlook. But meteorologists are still putting rain chances at 80% in Miami-Dade for Monday.
Miami city officials advised residents to be prepared for any potential storm impacts over the weekend. While the latest forecast does not show Miami in Laura's path, the situation can easily change, said Mayor Francis Suarez.
"All preparation measures need to be wrapped up and buttoned up by Sunday evening," said Suarez during an afternoon press conference.
The mayor said city crews have inspected storm water pump stations, and all are operating, and the city has contracts prepared to distribute ice and water if it becomes necessary.
TROPICAL STORM MARCO
At 5 p.m. Saturday, Marco had 65-mph maximum sustained winds with higher gusts and is about 50 miles from the western tip of Cuba and about 540 miles south-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm is headed north-northwest at 13 mph.
Marco is expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast on Monday.
After moving inland, Marco is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern Louisiana into east Texas.
"Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Sunday," forecasters said. "Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and Tuesday."
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.
WATCHES/WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORMS LAURA, MARCO
Tropical Storms Laura and Marco have caused a slew of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings.
The Cuban government issued a tropical storm warning on Saturday for the provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma.
The Mexican government discontinued its hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings for the northeastern and eastern Yucatan coast.
Marco is forecast to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain in eastern portions of Quintana Roo and the Yucatan. It may also bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to western Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches and 1 to 3 inches to the central U.S. Gulf Coast, which may cause flash flooding.
A storm surge watch has been issued from Sabine Pass eastward to the Alabama and Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay.
A hurricane watch has been issued from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, eastward to the Mississippi and Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans.
A tropical storm watch has been issued from the Mississippi and Alabama border eastward to the Alabama and Florida border.
Laura caused many warnings to be activated in the Caribbean.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic, and the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the central Bahamas, Andros Island, Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas and the Florida Bay
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes.
The Dominican Republic and Haiti are forecast to see 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas.
Cuba is forecast to have 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches.
Forecasters say this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico.
The Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas are projected to see 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC?
The third wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast.
Forecasters had said "some slow development is possible during the next couple of days" as it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic. But in the 2 p.m. Saturday advisory, they gave it a near zero percent chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.
The next storm name on the list is Nana.
