MIAMI – All of South Florida is set to be under a flood watch Friday night through late Sunday, with a tropical storm warning in effect for the Florida Keys ahead of Fred’s expected weekend deluge.
Flooding rain will be the main threat to South Florida, with the heaviest and most widespread rainfall expected late Friday through Saturday night, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical storm force winds, possibly ranging between 39 to 57 mph, and a few tornadoes are also likely.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. advisory, the “poorly disorganized” tropical depression dousing parts of Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas with heavy rain is forecast to regain its tropical storm strength soon.
It was moving west-northwest at 10 mph and should move near or across the Florida Keys Saturday with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, according to the hurricane center. Tropical storm conditions are most likely to arrive early Saturday in the pre-dawn hours, according to the weather service in Key West.
Fred is forecast to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through Friday night. It should make a turn toward the northwest by Saturday though forecasters earlier in the day said the models were in disagreement over its track, spanning from moving up the Florida peninsula to staying in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane center says the typically best-performing models show Fred being near or offshore of Florida’s west coast by Sunday.
Fred could see some additional strengthening before making its final landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The tropical storm should then weaken as it moves inland and crawls up Florida’s west coast, the hurricane center says. It should be a depression again by the time it reaches Alabama or Georgia.
Miami-Dade, Broward and the Keys are in for a wet weekend, with three to seven inches of rain possible starting Friday. The bad weather will stay through the weekend and into Monday, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches of rain. A similar forecast was issued for central Florida north towards the Big Bend region.
Urban and small stream flooding are a possible. Some areas in northern Florida could also see moderate river flooding. Hazardous marine conditions, including a high risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches will also be possible through the weekend, especially on Saturday.
The Florida Keys tropical storm warning is in effect west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The Florida Bay is also under a warning. Forecasters have also extended the tropical storm watch from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood.
“It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be,” Forecaster Cangialosi wrote.
On the forecast track, Fred was about 60 miles north-northeast of Camaguey, Cuba and about 315 miles east-southeast of Key West. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts and should be at 45 mph by the time it nears the Keys
FRED WATCHES/WARNINGS
– A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The Florida Bay is also under a warning.
– A tropical storm watch is in effect for Florida’s southwest coast from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef. A watch is also in place for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma.
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