Florida is the true US presidential election bellwether state

With a population of more than 21 million people, Florida is the nation’s largest swing state – and given its geographic size, rapid growth and sprawling diversity, it is also one of the least predictable. While the nation’s top two most populous states – California and New York – are expected to be easy wins for Democrat Joe Biden, Florida – the third-largest – is a true wild card, making it one of the most sought-after states for presidential candidates. “With 29 electoral college votes, Florida really is the big prize,” said Richard Mullaney, director of the Jacksonville University Public Policy Institute. “It’s really pretty stunning when you see how close the races have been here over the last 20 years.” Florida has a track record of predicting future presidents. Since 1996, every presidential candidate who has succeeded in Florida has gone on to spend the next four years in the White House. The state swings harder than a well-greased door hinge: in these six contests, Floridians have chosen exactly three Republicans and three Democrats. President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters after a campaign rally in Jacksonville, Florida [Stan Badz/AP Photo]While both candidates are making a pitched battle for the state’s voters, victory in Florida is far more crucial to Republican Donald Trump’s strategy than Biden’s. Losing Florida would require Trump to sweep several other battleground states to make up for the loss. Trump achieved this four years ago, but Biden appears to have a stronger grip on the electoral map than his predecessor, Hillary Clinton, did in 2016. Historically, no Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge, nearly a century ago, has gone on to win the presidency without Florida. Florida is a true toss-up For the past 20 years, every presidential election in Florida has been a nail-biter, particularly in 2000, when the vote count was so close that a Democratic challenge to the results had to be sorted out by the US Supreme Court. Of nearly six million votes cast in Florida, Republican George W Bush beat Democrat Al Gore by just 537 votes that year. The outcome this November may not be that tight, but polling suggests a close race ahead. Although Biden held a steady polling lead of four percentage points over most of the summer, Trump has narrowed the gap in the past few weeks. Biden currently enjoys only a 1.3 percentage point lead over Trump, according to averages of state polls compiled by Real Clear Politics. In 2016, Trump edged out Clinton by less than 2 percentage points. Despite strong national Democratic gains in the 2018 midterm elections, Floridians elected Republicans in statewide gubernatorial and Senate elections that year, but the results were narrow: both elections were decided by less than a single percentage point. Those margins were similar to the presidential election in 2012, when President Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by just 74,000 votes. style="width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; top: 0; bottom: 0; right: 0; left: 0;">