Summary
- Donald Trump made outlandish allegations about massive voter fraud in Florida where election officials are struggling through a statewide recount.
- Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio is seriously contemplating a presidential bid.
- West Virginia state senator and losing congressional candidate Richard Ojeda is actually running for president.
- New members of Congress are showing up in Washington DC to learn the ropes.
- Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith made a controversial reference to a public hanging only weeks before the state’s special election runoff.
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Progressive Democrats arrive in Washington
Members of the press got a first chance to meet the incoming class of progressive Democrats at a member orientation in Washington DC.
“This isn’t your mother or father’s progressive caucus,” said congressman Mark Pocan, the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), introducing the newest members.
The group included upstarts like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts. Also among them were the first Muslim women – Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota – and one of the two Native American women elected to Congress, Debra Haaland of New Mexico.
“What we see is the people’s house is much more reflective today of the country,” said Pramila Jayapal, a co-chair of the caucus.
She credited their progressive candidacies for helping energize the party’s base voters and driving up turnout among young people, people of color and women.
“When you look at the wins that we’ve gotten across the country what you see that it is also the progressive movement across the country that helped elect no only these individuals but also a number of members who are joining the democratic caucus,” she said.
The caucus has not taken a position on whether they will support Nancy Pelosi for House speaker later this month and several of the new members did not say how they would individually vote.
CPC’s co-chairs said they plan to leverage their numbers – now upwards of 90 with a number of House races yet to be called – to push the party leftward.
And in a question on everyone’s mind Ocasio-Cortez told reporters she has not yet found a place to live in Washington DC but that it was by choice.
“I don’t know need to move to DC until work starts anyway so I’m really taking this time to relish the last couple of months that I have full time with my communities in the Bronx and Queens,” she said.
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Another Mueller indictment is apparently coming. Jerome Corsi, a friend of Roger Stone, and former writer for the conspiracy website InfoWars tells NBC News that he will be indicted for perjury.
BREAKING: Roger Stone pal Jerome Corsi tells my colleague @annaschecter that Mueller's investigators informed Corsi about a week ago he will be indicted for perjury. "When they have your emails and phone records...they're very good at the perjury trap," he says.
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) November 12, 2018
One interesting measurement of turnout in the midterms is provided in this stat from Dave Wasserman which shows very high turnout among Republicans and even higher turnout from Democrats
So far, the median Dem House nominee is receiving 91.3% of Clinton's 2016 votes & the median R nominee is receiving only 80.4% of Trump's votes (only counting the 394 races contested by both parties).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2018
These figures will change slightly as more votes are tallied.
One of the major trends in the midterms was the Republican collapse in the suburbs. As Michael Warren of the Weekly Standard notes, this trend bodes ill for the GOP in 2020:
But even if Trump can eke out another Electoral College victory by shedding the marginal suburban votes for greater rural turnout, that doesn’t solve his House problem. Congressional majorities are built on broader coalitions than the narrowest possible paths to the presidency. Democrats learned this the hard way when, in 2010, the party was wiped out (outside of majority-black districts) in the South. Barack Obama did what no other modern president had done by shrinking his popular vote total while still winning re-election in 2012. But Democrats never won back the House for the rest of Obama’s presidency, and his legislative agenda was effectively dead.
Newly elected members of Congress are already showing up in Washington DC including the most famous freshman elected last week:
New member alert! Just ran into @MittRomney walking by himself behind the Library of Congress- he seemed excited about orientation and says he has to figure out where he’s going to live here in DC.
— Elizabeth Landers (@ElizLanders) November 12, 2018
A number of top Democrats have announced their support for Nancy Pelosi to be speaker in 2019, the most recent being Richie Neal, the incoming chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means.
Incoming Ways & Means Chairman Richard Neal getting out in front to back Pelosi for speaker pic.twitter.com/4sh7RzHTnq
— Joe Perticone (@JoePerticone) November 12, 2018
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Jeb Bush, who appointed Broward county elections supervisor Brenda Snipes to her current position, has called her to be removed. Snipes’s management of the elections process in Broward county has drawn bipartisan criticism.
There is no question that Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes failed to comply with Florida law on multiple counts, undermining Floridians’ confidence in our electoral process. Supervisor Snipes should be removed from her office following the recounts.
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) November 12, 2018
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Democrats made significant gains at the state legislative level in the 2018 midterms as this graphic from the New York Times shows.
However, the most remarkable result of the midterms is that there will only be one state where there is split control of the state legislature, Minnesota. There Democrats will control the state house but Republicans will control the state senate. In all of the other 48 states with partisan state legislatures (Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature), the same party will control both chambers.
In addition, there will be split control in Washington DC as well.
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Even though it’s a federal holiday, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen is in Washington today
Michael Cohen arrived in Washington, D.C., Monday morning, accompanied by one of his criminal defense lawyers. He declined to answer questions from @ABC about why he was there. https://t.co/5FvlkEOrn3 pic.twitter.com/kabYoCkVyu
— ABC News (@ABC) November 12, 2018
While Florida is still undergoing its recount, Republican Rick Scott is acting like a winner.
The Florida governor is coming to Washington for new member orientation and will participate in Senate leadership elections.
Colleague Peter Doocy rpts GOP FL Gov Rick Scott will come to DC this week to participate in some new-member orientation activities, including the photo Wednesday. Will also vote in leadership elections.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 12, 2018
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House Democrats have announced their first priority in January.
They plan on holding their first vote on a series of reforms to the political process that includes campaign finance reforms, new ethics rules and automatic voter registration.
The bill will almost certainly not become law and is unlikely to even receive a vote in the Senate. However, it will serve a symbolic measure and one that Democrats will use to push a message of reform in the next two years.
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Although Ojeda became the first unsuccessful congressional candidate to announce a bid for the White House in 2020, there is a sitting congressman who is already running.
John Delaney, a three-term Democrat from Maryland, has been formally running for the White House since last year. Delaney, who did not seek re-election this year, has been to all 99 counties in Iowa and running television ads in the state.
He told the Guardian last month that he thought his campaign had been successful so far “we’re going end up exactly where we wanted to be”.
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West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda formally launched his presidential bid today in a Facebook video filmed in front of the Korean war memorial in Washington DC.
Ojeda was the Democratic nominee for West Virginia’s third congressional district in 2018, where he lost to Republican Carol Miller by a margin of 56%-44%.
"I'm Richard Ojeda and I'm running for the president of the United States of America." https://t.co/MEV2SIcyPF
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 12, 2018
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The Senate race in Texas between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke received boatloads of national press as it seemingly became a requirement for every publication in the country to print a gushing profile of O’Rourke.
Now that the smoke has cleared with Cruz beating O’Rourke to win re-election to the Senate, the Texas Tribune did an in-depth piece on the race and how O’Rourke mounted the strongest campaign of any Texas Democrat in over two decades.
It notes how a key turning point in the campaign was when O’Rourke gave an answer to a question planted by the Cruz campaign about protests at NFL games when players knelt during the national anthem. O’Rourke’s answer may have gone viral on the Internet but may have also made him toxic with Texas voters.
While national attention swirled around O’Rourke, the issue did not appear to be a political winner in Texas, where public polls showed that voters strongly disapprovedof the anthem protests. Cruz’s campaign moved quickly to put O’Rourke’s viral comments in a TV ad, contrasting them with a veteran who lost two legs in the Vietnam War and who said in the commercial he cannot stand, but he expects others to do so for him. In Cruz’s internal data, O’Rourke had had a net positive image throughout the entire race until that point.
“He became the most unpopular statewide figure in Texas,” Cruz pollster Chris Wilson said.
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For those already hunting for holiday presents, one potential gift is already being advertised on Fox News: Trumpy Bear.
For only two payments of $19.95, you can have a teddy bear designed to look like Donald Trump that comes with a flag blanket.
UPDATE: Per a statement from Fox News’s Senior Vice President of Eastern Sales, Dom Rossi
“This was a local ad purchase with the cable operator. We do not do business with them nationally.”
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If you’re expecting anything to happen in Florida soon, don’t hold your breath.
They are still sorting the ballots in Broward county for the recount with no expectation of even beginning counting them today.
Watching the paint dry in Broward County. They’re sorting the ballots — taking the top page and setting it aside bc that’s the only one they need. Lawyers here say they won’t finish the sort today, let alone actually start tabulating.
— Amy Gardner (@AmyEGardner) November 12, 2018
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Axios’s Jonathan Swan reports that Trump is dead set against further aid to Puerto Rico.
This is based in part on the president misinterpreting a Wall Street Journal article in October about hurricane relief efforts.
As Swan notes, Trump has long been skeptical of aid to Puerto Rico even before Hurricane Maria.
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Although it looks like Republican Brian Kemp is set to prevail in Georgia’s gubernatorial race over Democrat Stacey Abrams, there still will be a crucial runoff there in December.
In the race to succeed Kemp as secretary of state, Democrat John Barrow will be in a runoff against Republican Brad Raffensperger. Kemp’s conduct as the chief election official in the state drew national outrage on the left and led some to claim voter suppression in the state.
Barrow is a former congressman who released an ad where he said: “I’m a Democrat but I won’t bite ya.” Raffensperger is a two-term state representative from suburban Atlanta.
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There are more ballots being counted in Maine this morning.
Ballot processing begins again today at 10 am in the CD2 race. Lots of work to be done to upload 190 more towns’ ballots and certify everything before we can run the final tabulation.
— MaineSOS (@MESecOfState) November 12, 2018
This is the first year that the state is using an instant runoff to determine the result in federal elections. The results are by no means instant though in the tight race in the state’s second congressional district.
Currently incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin has a lead of less than 2,000 votes over Democrat Jared Golden at 46.2% to 45.5%. However, an absolute majority is needed and two left of center independent candidates combined for over 8% of the vote with 23,000 ballots cast for them. The second choice preferences of those voters will determine the eventual winner.
If Democrats win the seat, Republicans will not hold a single House seat in New England in the next Congress.
Defeated Republican blames John McCain for losing the House
Jason Lewis, a first-term congressman from the Minneapolis suburbs, lost his re-election bid on Tuesday. He has taken to the Wall Street Journal to blame the obvious culprit: John McCain
In an op-ed, Lewis blames the late senator’s vote to block Obamacare repeal for Democratic success in the midterms. Lewis claims that if McCain voted otherwise, there would be no wave of small dollar donation for Democratic candidates.
The outgoing congressman, who was a talk show host with a history of inflammatory remarks before his service in public office, ends by attributing McCain’s vote to a personal grudge.
The late Arizona senator’s grievance with all things Trump was well known, but this obsession on the part of “Never Trump” Republicans has to end. Disapprove of the president’s style if you like, but don’t sacrifice sound policy to pettiness.
Lewis lost to Democrat Angie Craig by a margin of 53%-47% last week.
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Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio is considering a presidential bid.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Brown, who was elected to a third term from the Buckeye State last week, is contemplating a run for the White House.
Brown, a stalwart progressive from a Rust Belt state, says he will mull over a decision during the holidays.
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It will be a quiet day at the White House. It was announced already there is a “lid” which means Trump will not be leaving the building or holding any public events today.
However, lids do not apply to Twitter.
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Potential Democratic presidential candidates are already scrambling for staff.
Natasha Korecki at Politico reports that Cory Booker has been personally calling Democratic operatives to recruit them. In a field that may have as many as two dozen candidates, there will be increased demand for proven operatives with experience and ties in early states like Iowa.
The question is when people start getting hired, though.
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Trump weighs in as Florida faces more recount chaos
Donald Trump took to Twitter Monday morning to allege voter fraud and urge that Florida stop counting ballots and forgo its recount process.
The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 12, 2018
Florida is still receiving absentee ballots from overseas voters. Although ballots have to be mailed by election day, those from other countries must be counted if received within 10 days of the election. These outstanding ballots include votes cast by members of the US military.
State law requires a full recount if a race is within 0.5% margin
Currently, Florida is facing three full state recounts in the races for Senator, governor and secretary of agriculture.
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Senator Cindy Hyde Smith of Mississippi is under fire after saying of someone: “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the front row.”
Hyde-Smith, a Republican appointed to the Senate earlier this year, is a candidate in a late November runoff special election against Democrat Mike Espy to hold the seat.
Critics have said that the reference to hanging by Hyde-Smith, a white woman running against a black Democrat, is racially charged in a state with Mississippi’s history of lynching
In a statement, Hyde-Smith said: “In a comment on Nov. 2, I referred to accepting an invitation to a speaking engagement. In referencing the one who invited me, I used an exaggerated expression of regard, and any attempt to turn this into a negative connotation is ridiculous.”
In contrast, a spokesman for Espy said: “Cindy Hyde-Smith’s comments are reprehensible. They have no place in our political discourse, in Mississippi, or our country. We need leaders, not dividers, and her words show that she lacks the understanding and judgment to represent the people of our state.”
Hyde-Smith was appointed after longtime senator Thad Cochran stepped down due to ill health. The winner of the 27 November runoff will fill the remainder of Cochran’s term.
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Richard Ojeda, a Democrat who lost a House race in West Virginia coal country last week, will announce a presidential bid today.
Ojeda, who lost to Republican Carol Miller by a margin of 56%-44%, will throw his hat in the ring for 2020. A West Virginia state senator who voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 general election, Ojeda is unlikely to be the next president. However, his colorful campaign attracted national attention during the midterms.
The Guardian’s Paul Lewis spent time with him in October in a video that you can watch below:
My colleagues Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Jon Swaine have a new story this morning about the rise of acting attorney general Matt Whitaker in Iowa politics.
In particular, it focuses on his failed prosecution of Matt McCoy, a Democratic state senator, when Whitaker was serving as US attorney for the southern district of Iowa. McCoy told the Guardian that he believed he was targeted for political reasons in a flimsy case based entirely on the testimony of a paid informant.
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Good morning and welcome. Ballots are still being counted in Arizona, Florida is starting a full statewide vote count and Donald Trump has no public events on his schedule today.
It’s just another Monday in American politics.
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