WASHINGTON — Florida’s clout in Congress and the state’s importance in presidential elections is growing — but the gain was smaller than anticipated.
The Census Bureau announced the initial results of the nationwide 2020 population count Monday, and Florida gained one new U.S. House seat after a 14.6% population gain from 2010 to 2020. The state’s estimated population is now 21,538,187.
Florida’s population increase was greater than the national average of 7.4% over the last decade, but the state fell just short of gaining a second U.S. House seat and an additional Electoral College vote in the 2024 presidential election.
The overall shift in U.S. House seats, seven among 13 states, is the smallest shift since the House capped its membership at 435 representatives in 1929, the Census Bureau said. Texas was the only state to gain two seats. Montana, Oregon, Colorado and North Carolina also gained one seat.
“We know Texas and Florida are among the biggest winners here,” said Sergio Garcia-Rios, a professor at Cornell University who studies Latino voter trends. “These states are gaining population not only because of internal growth but due to population shifts, not so much international migration but intrastate migration.”
Monday’s announcement was delayed in part due to the Census Bureau’s challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and former President Donald Trump’s desire to remove undocumented immigrants from the population count. Now, the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will draw new congressional district lines in a condensed time frame before the 2022 election.
Karen Battle, a chief statistician at the Census Bureau, said growth in Florida and Texas was less than expected compared to population estimates calculated throughout the last decade.
“For the state of Texas and for the state of Florida the 2020 Census count was actually below our population estimates from 2020,” Battle said. “The difference between the 2020 Census count and estimate was about 1%.”
That 1% difference likely cost Florida an additional House seat. Florida’s next allocated seat was ranked 439th on the list, four short of gaining the 435th and last U.S. House seat, which went to Minnesota. The 2020 Census is the first since 1940 in which the state failed to gain at least two seats.
“This is a unique ritual that has occurred only 23 other times in U.S. history,” said Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. “We look forward to delivering the district data no later than September 30.”
More detailed information about race, ethnicity, sex along with population counts for specific municipalities will be released this fall. Those details will also play a role in where new congressional districts are created and the distribution of federal funds for public programs and entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid.
The more detailed data will determine where Florida’s new U.S. House seat will be based, but multiple demographic experts expect Central Florida to be the fastest growing area within the state and the most likely site of Florida’s 28th U.S. House seat.
The last map drawn by the Florida Legislature after the 2010 Census was thrown out by the Florida Supreme Court, though it was in effect during the 2012 and 2014 elections. In 2015, the court ruled in favor of a map drawn by a group of Democratic-affiliated organizations for the 2016 election, altering Miami districts represented by Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson and former Republican Reps. Carlos Curbelo and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. While Democrats flipped Florida’s 26th and 27th Congressional Districts in 2018 after they were drawn to favor Democrats in 2015, Republican Reps. Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar currently represent the seats after beating Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala, respectively, during the 2020 election.
The Florida redistricting battles after 2010 ultimately cost taxpayers $11 million and led to four trials, three special sessions in Tallahassee and eight rulings from the Florida Supreme Court. In 2017, the Florida House backed off an attempt to weaken a 2010 Florida Constitution amendment that requires districts to be drawn without the intention of hurting or helping a political party or to disenfranchise minorities. Instead, the Florida Legislature passed a narrower bill that enables candidates for Congress, the state Senate and state House to collect signatures from any registered voter in Florida during a year in which boundaries are uncertain — a process that will likely play out during the 2022 election cycle.
Garcia-Rios said he expects Republicans to attempt to draw districts in their favor, which will lead to more court fights around redistricting ahead of 2022.
“What this is going to do is untap a series of lawsuits,” Garcia-Rios said. “I’m curious what is the response from now until September, when we get the more granular data.”
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(Miami Herald Tallahassee bureau chief Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.)
