MIAMI _ Hurricane Dorian picked up speed as it passed Puerto Rico on Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. It could make landfall in Florida on Monday as a Category 3 storm.
The newly formed hurricane was about 45 miles northwest of St. Thomas as of the 5 p.m. EDT update, which showed Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and picked up the pace a bit, moving west at 14 mph. The new update tilted the storm's potential landfall slightly more south along the Florida coastline.
"All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula," NHC forecasters wrote.
As Hurricane Dorian neared a likely Florida landfall, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon for 26 counties in the storm's path, spanning the east coast from Duval to Monroe counties. The state Emergency Operations Center is also activating to Level 2, he announced, bringing in more emergency management staff to coordinate a response to the storm.
"It's important for Floridians on the East Coast to monitor this storm closely," DeSantis said in a statement, urging Floridians to have seven days of supplies on hand. "I will continue to monitor Hurricane Dorian closely with emergency management officials. The state stands ready to support all counties along the coast as they prepare."
The second hurricane of the season is expected to bring up to 6 inches of rain to Puerto Rico and the U.S. British Virgin Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. Isolated areas could see up to 10 inches of rain and life-threatening flash floods, surf and rip current conditions will be possible.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a stronger hurricane in the next couple days, when it passes near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas by Friday and Saturday, according to the advisory. Forecasters warn the storm could grow in size after it clears Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
By the time Dorian nears Florida's east coast, it could be a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Florida could start seeing tropical storm force winds Saturday night.
Forecasters say the "threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions" in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased, but it's still too early to know exactly how _ or where _ Florida will be affected.
"By Friday, a high pressure region is forecast to build to the north of the system," said NHC forecaster Daniel Brown. "It'll be critical as to how strong that ridge is as to how quickly it turns back to the north-northwest."
If that ridge is stronger, it could push Dorian west faster, pointing it more toward South Florida. A weaker ridge would see a more northern landfall.
But regardless of landfall location, the storm could bring heavy rain up and down the state over the weekend. That's just in time for the second King Tide of the season, a higher than usual high tide that usually brings intense flooding to low-lying regions.
"High tides are beginning to go up today and they continue really through the weekend into Sunday. Monday they stay elevated," said NWS meteorologist Larry Kelly. "They're not running too above normal at this time, but we're continuing to monitor them. The impact from Dorian depends on the track."
The National Weather Service advised this week that Florida could see drenching rain and maybe even flooding from Dorian later this week and into early next week. NHC forecasters expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated areas seeing up to 10 inches of rain.
A late afternoon track shift Tuesday took Dorian from shooting the gap between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to an eastern tilt directly through Puerto Rico, which is still hurting from the direct hit it took from Hurricane Maria two years ago. Wednesday morning saw the track shift farther right and closer to the Virgin Islands.
Puerto Rico is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. The British Virgin Islands and U.S. Virgin Islands are under a tropical hurricane warning.
There's still plenty of time for the forecast to shift.
DeSantis tweeted Tuesday that "all residents on the East Coast should prepare for impacts, including strong winds, heavy rain and flooding."
So far Miami International Airport has only experienced one Dorian-related flight cancellation: American Airlines' 10:52 a.m. flight to St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands Wednesday and the corresponding return flight previously scheduled to arrive at MIA Wednesday evening at 5:40 p.m.
Royal Caribbean International announced Wednesday that it was closing its private island in the Bahamas, Coco Cay, ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian's arrival. The company expected the island to reopen on Sept. 4, 2019.
"Our CocoCay Team is made up of over 400 Bahamian locals on the island and it's important that they evacuate to care for their families and secure their homes, as soon as possible," the company said in a statement. Passengers who purchased tickets to attractions at the island will be refunded.
Trips on six of Royal Caribbean's upcoming trips will likely be affected by itinerary changes: Empress of the Seas Aug. 24, 2019, Symphony of the Seas Aug. 24, 2019, Mariner of the Seas Aug. 26, 2019, Navigator of the Seas Aug. 30, 2019, Mariner of the Seas Aug. 30, 2019, and Harmony of the Seas Sept. 1, 2019.
The company urges passengers to check its website for updates.
Carnival Cruise Line is diverting three of its ships to avoid Dorian. The Aug. 24 sailing on Carnival Breeze will skip its San Juan, Puerto Rico, stop; the Aug. 27 sailing on Carnival Sunrise will switch the order of its visits to Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos, San Juan and Amber Cove, Dominican Republic; and the Aug. 25 sailing on Carnival Magic will go to Amber Cove instead of Nassau, Bahamas.
Norwegian Cruise Line and MSC Cruises have not announced any itinerary changes yet.
