Is it Freddie? Is it Strauss? The sages of the Sunday newspapers emerged from a half-hour audience with Duncan Fletcher none the wiser as to who would be leading the team this winter. Fifty per cent felt that the England coach was leaning towards Strauss, 50 per cent sensed that he was hinting at Flintoff. For what it's worth my guess is that it will be Flintoff.
Fletcher would rejoice in this split vote. He prides himself on being enigmatic and discreet. At our briefing he was bound not to give a firm steer on the captaincy, which will be announced along with the names for the Champions Trophy and the Ashes tour on Tuesday. And he succeeded. In any case it is not Fletcher's decision alone. David Graveney and Geoff Miller are entitled to their say and this pair were meeting with the England coach at 12.30pm yesterday, their third get-together to discuss the Ashes campaign and the captaincy.
"It is a very difficult decision, but we have two very good candidates," said Fletcher. "Flintoff was the natural choice in India and did a very good job. Strauss has put his name in the pot this summer and has also done a very good job in trying conditions. We haven't decided but we have a good idea who it will be. We do want one captain for the Champions Trophy and the Ashes."
This does not rule out Flintoff because Fletcher confirmed that the colossus is on track to be available for the Champions Trophy in India - as a batsman. He expects that Flintoff will also be able to bowl during that tournament, but such activity will be restricted to the nets. There are plenty of gaps between matches and the support staff can keep a close eye on him. Maintaining this optimistic note, Fletcher pointed out that there were seven weeks for Flintoff to continue his rehabilitation between the Champions Trophy and the first Test in Brisbane.
"I have to trust the experts," Fletcher said, "whether it relates to Flintoff's ankle or the well-being of Marcus Trescothick. I'm not qualified to make predictions. If they are confident that they will be all right we must go with that."
Fletcher offered stout support for Trescothick, who has been withdrawn from the Champions Trophy so he can continue dealing with his 'underlying stress-related illness' as his healthcare team describe his condition. "I'm very confident that he'll be fit," said Fletcher. "The India trip came just too early for him. Marcus has been no different this summer and I'll treat him exactly the same as before. He's a proven, strong character."
However, Fletcher's optimism cannot be described as boundless, even though most of the crocks are progressing well (at the last count only Michael Vaughan and Simon Jones are ruled out of Ashes contention). "I'm not as confident of retaining the Ashes as I was a year ago. Then we had a full team all under 30 but we have had to cope with five, six, seven injuries, often to our star players. That has been a huge loss, but we have just had to get on with it."
England's predicament contrasts starkly with that of the Australians, who have been kicking their heels in preparation for the Ashes. They have had the luxury of boot camps in Queensland ('Any thoughts of a boot camp, Duncan?' 'We might be able to fit one in on the Monday evening before we fly out to the Champions Trophy'). Moreover, all the Aussies appear to be fit and raring to go.
As ever England have an awkward balancing act involving medics of various types before deciding which 16 players will be selected for the Tests in Australia. Fletcher suggested that James Anderson, Ashley Giles ('very upbeat when I spoke to him two days ago') and Liam Plunkett might play in the last round of County Championship matches.
In Anderson's case this outing, bizarrely, might not be for his club, Lancashire, who in their bid for the Championship are understandably reluctant to play a bowler returning from injury. So Fletcher is exploring the possibility that Anderson might play for another county, on loan, presumably in a match that has no bearing on the Championship or promotion/relegation issues.
Other unusual measures will be taken for the Ashes. The plan is to place about five reserves in Perth throughout the first three Tests under the supervision of two staff members - nice work if you can get it - so that acclimatised replacements are readily available.
So which 16 will they take? Probably they require seven specialist batsmen because it is conceivable that they might want to play six of them in the first Test in Brisbane. The six who played in the final Test at The Oval are certainties and could be augmented by Owais Shah or Robert Key. Both have had moderate seasons, but both have shown the stomach for Test cricket. My inclination would be for Shah, who was so outstanding and adrenalin-fuelled in his solitary Test in Mumbai last March.
Presumably Geraint Jones, still virtually runless since he was dropped from the Test team, will accompany Chris Read, although James Foster had been in sparkling form with both gloves and bat for Essex this season. One of the two spinners will be Monty Panesar, but it is a puzzle as to who the second should be. Whoever is chosen is more than likely to play in Sydney and possibly in Adelaide. My hunch is that they will gamble on Giles, even though he hasn't bowled a ball in earnest since last November, with Jamie Dalrymple stationed in Perth.
No doubt Dalrymple would be joined by a gaggle of fast bowlers for this is where there is most uncertainty in terms of fitness and reliability. Who should accompany Steve Harmison and Matthew Hoggard? Anderson, if fit, is the most favoured option. Then the choice is between Sajid Mahmood, Stuart Broad, Plunkett and Jon Lewis. Mahmood, so fragile in one-day cricket, has the greatest pace and is the man in possession in Test cricket. But don't let him stroll out to bat at number eight.
