SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch finally had a chance to lay out their plan Monday during an expansive news conference over Zoom that took about 38 minutes. It was the first time they spoke to reporters since the end of the season.
How that plan will come together remains to be seen, but the wheels are in motion to add a young quarterback in the upcoming draft after trading up nine spots to No. 3 overall and sending three first-round draft picks and a 2022 third-round pick to the Dolphins.
So what does arguably the most consequential trade of franchise history mean for all those involved, including Jimmy Garoppolo? We’ll have a more concrete idea when the pick is made April 29. For now, let’s dissect the important takeaways from Shanahan and Lynch and try reading some tea leafs.
1. 49ERS FEEL THERE ARE MULTIPLE OPTIONS THEY’D BE HAPPY WITH
The 49ers didn’t make the trade with one player in mind. At No. 3, they know they have to be flexible because what happens in front of them is out of their control.
The Jets at No. 2 could take BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, which is widely expected, or decide to stick with incumbent quarterback Sam Darnold and trade down to an unknown team. The good news for San Francisco: picking third ensures they get one of the top three quarterbacks in a talented quarterback class.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is expected to go first overall to Jacksonville, Wilson is likely going second, leaving San Francisco a shot at Mac Jones (Alabama), Justin Fields (Ohio State) and Trey Lance (North Dakota State). There’s no doubt the 49ers made the trade having conviction at least one of those three players would be on the board. That wasn’t a luxury the team had at No. 12 after coming to the conclusion over the winter they wanted to make a run at a new franchise signal-caller.
Not including the top two spots, too many teams need quarterbacks, like the Broncos, Panthers, Lions and Falcons picking ahead of San Francisco before the trade, along with other teams picking later that could move up (Patriots, Steelers, Saints, Washington).
So the 49ers decided to jump the line ensuring they’ll get a player they covet.
“You have got to take risks and this was a risk we were willing to take,” Shanahan said. “We looked at how our four years have gone, we’ve looked at how we want the next four years to go, we looked at where we are in the draft and the options that are there. That’s why sitting there looking at this stuff since January and going all the way through the process, we felt pretty strongly we were gonna get left at the altar sitting there at 12.”
And given their expectations, the 49ers don’t plan on drafting in the first half of Round 1 any time soon, making this year unique because the cost is less to move up than it would have been if picking in the 20s.
“Our feeling is these guys were going to go a lot higher than people realize,” said Shanahan, “and when you have two guys sitting at one and two possibly could and even possibly three and four, then you hear a lot of teams all the way through the draft who are in a situation where they really want a quarterback and they don’t have someone close to what we have with Jimmy, that means those five guys are going to disappear pretty fast.”
Which player is it going to be? That remains to be seen. But there has been continued buzz about the pick being Jones, which hasn’t exactly fired up the fan base. He’s the least mobile and athletic of the five mentioned, and he has the weakest arm of the bunch. Where he excels is his processing and feel for the game, which might be enticing for Shanahan if he wants a player similar to Garoppolo or his former pupil, Kirk Cousins (more on him later).
However, it’s hard to believe the 49ers traded away three first-round draft picks to take a player without elite physical traits, especially in a league where Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott are terrorizing defenses.
Shanahan, unprompted, also mentioned John Elway, one of the most physically gifted prospects of all time. So maybe he thinks there’s that kind of player in this draft.
“Elway’s pretty talented,” he said.
2. WHAT’S IN A PRO DAY?
Headlines were made late Sunday when Peter King of NBC Sports reported in his weekly column Shanahan and Lynch were traveling to Tuscaloosa, Ala., this week for an up-close look at Jones in a pro day format. It’s slated to be Jones’ second throwing session this month after having worked out for talent evaluators March 23.
Shanahan typically doesn’t attend pro days outside of the occasional appearance just up the road at Stanford. He usually entrusts other members of the front office and/or scouting staff to attend those sessions and offer their opinions.
Shanahan is mostly shaped by what he sees on film and in his interactions. His last notable quarterback workout outside of the team’s facility came in 2017 with Mitchell Trubisky, the guy the team passed on second overall before taking Solomon Thomas third after trading back a spot with Chicago.
This year, interactions with prospects will mostly come via Zoom, though he will have a shot to meet Jones face to face on Tuesday. Changing spots in the draft makes it easier for Shanahan to attend pro days without worrying about tipping his hand.
“I normally don’t like to go to them a bunch unless I feel I have to for some reason,” Shanahan said. “I also have kind of grown up in the idea that you don’t like to go everywhere and show people things. When you’re sitting at 12 and stuff, I don’t want to go to a bunch of quarterback pro days and things like that. Now that you move up to three, you don’t have to hide as much. It’s not as big of a deal to me as it might have been when we were sitting at 12.”
Of course, it was big news in Northern California that Shanahan was attending Jones’ pro day on the same day Fields was working out north in Columbus, Ohio. The 49ers are sending assistant GM Adam Peters to watch Fields while Lynch and Shanahan watch Jones, King reported.
Is that worth reading into? Not likely. Shanahan said he’s been in contact with Fields’ agent, David Mulugheta, to have another separate pro day with the former Buckeye before the draft. The Athletic also reported the team is working on something similar with Lance, who had his North Dakota State pro day two weeks before San Francisco made the trade to move up. Neither Lynch nor Shanahan attended.
Lynch was at Wilson’s pro day last Friday, as the trade became public, and there doesn’t appear to be much use to attending Clemson’s earlier pro day with Lawrence all but signed on the dotted line in Jacksonville. Regardless, there’s a strong chance at least one of the two will have seen their pick throw in person before the draft.
3. DOUBLING DOWN ON GAROPPOLO BEING IN THE PLANS
The assumption after the trade from many is that Garoppolo should start packing his bags despite ESPN’s Adam Schefter citing a team source saying Garoppolo will remain the starter in 2021 even after the team adds his replacement.
Shanahan and Lynch doubled down on that Monday while also leaving the obvious caveat that they would trade Garoppolo for the right price. Though the market doesn’t seem replete with teams after Garoppolo’s services before seeing what happens in the draft.
The 49ers started three different quarterbacks in 2018 and 2020, the years lost when Garoppolo was hurt, so there’s logic to keeping him, even on his $24.1 million base salary. If anyone knows the value of quarterback depth, it’s San Francisco.
Moving on from Garoppolo would require adding another quarterback because Josh Rosen and Josh Johnson are not good contingency plans for a team that considers itself a contender.
“We’re in a situation,” said Shanahan, “where when you bring in a rookie quarterback, to me it’s always better, especially on the team that you have, if you’ve got a veteran starter there already who you like and you’re comfortable winning with, that’s usually the direction you want to go. And not throw someone else out into the fire until they’re fully ready and that’s the situation we’re (in).”
Additionally, the 49ers are still waiting to hear what exactly the offseason program is going to look like. There’s a chance it might be the same as 2020 when everything was virtual and players didn’t come to the team’s facility until late July for a truncated conditioning program before the start of training camp in mid August. A normal offseason includes weeks of strength and conditioning in the spring, along with a handful of minicamp and OTA practices that help players prepare for camp in the summer.
A repeat of 2020’s scheduled would make it difficult for a rookie to pick up Shanahan’s complex offense in a starting role. Keeping Garoppolo could insulate from that, as well as placate the veterans who are in win-now mode.
“As far as we know, (offseason scheduling) still hasn’t been decided as of yet and there’s a lot of ideas (with) what might happen,” Lynch said. “I think all those things go into the equation. Yeah, and a lot of players suffered last year. A lot of young players, not just rookies. It’s hard to improve in this league when you don’t have an offseason. That’s an integral part of improvement.”
Shanahan and Lynch both spoke to Garoppolo on Friday before news of the trade went public, they said. They indicated Garoppolo was disappointed but also expressed confidence he’ll continue to operate as usual despite the awkward circumstances.
“I’m sure Jimmy was a little pissed off from it, just like I would be, too,” Shanahan said. “But me knowing Jimmy, he’ll be fired up and come in and work his butt off. Knowing Jimmy, the more mad Jimmy gets usually the better he gets. Jimmy just gets madder and (if he) stays healthy, this is going to be a good thing for Jimmy too, which could be a great problem for the 49ers.”
Another point worth mentioning on Garoppolo: if the 49ers were intent on dealing him and getting away from his contract, why do it when his stock at bottoming out?
A case could be made to try rehabilitating him and trading him to recoup some of the trade package given to Miami in the trade. That doesn’t happen coming off a disappointing season riddled with high ankle sprains. Another playoff run might net the 49ers a first-round pick should Garoppolo reach 2019 levels while also letting the rookie marinate. Garoppolo’s value has a tendency to vacillate.
As far as flexibility to make the trade up to No. 3, the 49ers said they were able to do it after successfully keeping the roster intact through free agency. The key was signing left tackle Trent Williams to his record-setting contract, allowing the 49ers to focus their first draft pick on a quarterback rather than finding Williams’ replacement, which would have a sizable ripple effect.
“I think probably the equation, the combination of both, moving up and keeping Jimmy, that probably crystallize when free agency, in our minds, went well,” Lynch said.
Had Williams left for the Chiefs, which he nearly did, it might have forced Lynch and Shanahan to pivot, perhaps trading Garoppolo and being forced to start the rookie in 2021. Put another way: punt on a year while many in the building believed they could have made another run at a Super Bowl.
Instead, many of the team’s free agents are back while the 49ers try to compete while also developing their future starter. It’s an odd plan that teams rarely go through. But it’s not one Shanahan and Lynch are avoiding.
“I think a hard decision for us to is when you committed what we did to Jimmy,” Shanahan said, “and you got a guy who’s really only played one year, and in one year of football, you look at the numbers he had, how efficient he was and how close we got to winning a Super Bowl, he’s got a lot untapped potential also. So that’s a hard thing for us too. We’re not giving up on Jimmy because he can’t play or anything. ... We also know we can’t go through a year with what’s happened two of the last three years (with Garoppolo’s injuries). So that’s something we had to protect the organization with, and there’s lots of ways to go into that.”
4. WHAT IS SHANAHAN LOOKING FOR IN THE NEXT FACE OF THE FRANCHISE?
The reason Jones has been linked to San Francisco since the trade is the similarities he shows to Shanahan’s history. Shanahan, of course, coveted Cousins in 2018 free agency, passing on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2017 draft. Cousins since then has been a mythic figure hanging over Shanahan’s reputation as a head coach, leaving many to assume that’s the type of quarterback he wants in 2021, which leads to Jones.
“You want an elite player,” Shanahan said when asked about the Cousins archetype and if his preference in quarterbacks is evolving. “And of course if you can get a guy who’s elite with his arm and can play in the pocket and do everything and still run around and make off-schedule plays. I mean, that’s what you’ve seen with Mahomes. Everybody wants something like that. But there is a risk to everything and you got to see that in the draft, you got to see it in college.”
The nature of football’s evolution has seen a number of athletic, mobile, strong-armed quarterbacks that make off-schedule plays a key part of their games. Shanahan’s typical quarterbacks, Cousins and most recently, Garoppolo, aren’t known for that.
But the trend is going the other direction with players like Mahomes, Allen, and others being the envy of the league. And there appear to be similarly-skilled quarterbacks atop this draft class with Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance.
Jones is stationary, having rarely used the bootleg actions in college that are a staple of Shanahan’s offense in the NFL (of course, there’s also a relatively stationary quarterback in the league named Tom Brady, who’s been doing fine).
“There’s more talented players playing these positions in college, so I do think there’s more options coming into the league,” Shanahan said.
With a caveat.
“But if you can’t sit in that pocket and play that position, eventually it’s not going to matter. They both go hand in hand.”
Jones’ work in the pocket might be the best of the three expected to be available when the 49ers pick. But Lance and Fields are far more athletic and might be molded into good passers from the pocket. In the meantime, they could utilize their legs in off-schedule plays while they get more comfortable under center.
Shanahan might stick to the hits with Jones, but there’s also a chance he could be going after someone in the more athletic mold. After all, this is the first time Shanahan is in position as a decision maker to find a quarterback near the top of the draft, not counting taking Thomas in 2017.
5. SIMMS AND THE MEDIA’S ROLE
It’s not lost on Shanahan and Lynch the effect the media can have on how the draft is viewed. After all, fans’ opinions of draft picks are curated by what they read leading up to the draft, which is often created by media scouts and draft experts who aren’t evaluating players the same way as people in the league.
Notable are media members who used to be in the league, or are connected to head coaches, making proclamations about draft picks. That’s been true with NBC Sports’ Chris Simms, one of Shanahan’s closest friends and former college teammates at Texans.
Simms has been perhaps Jones’ biggest proponent among the draft media, calling him an ideal fit for Shanahan and comparing him to past quarterbacks. No doubt his takes are stoking the fan base.
Shanahan was asked if Simms is privy to his plans with the third pick.
“Yeah, I tell him everything,” Shanahan said sarcastically.
Shanahan said he doesn’t talk to Simms about his plans now that he’s in the media for these exact reasons, while Simms reiterates his takes are his own opinion and he’s not getting information directly from Shanahan. Not everyone believes that.
“Chris talks about everything,” Shanahan said. “Therefore I haven’t been able to talk to him in a couple years. Anyone who you’re friends with and speaks in the media and people think you’re friends with him, that means you’re not allowed to tell him anything. That’s why he doesn’t even ask me stuff because if he does ask me something and I tell him then he can’t say it.”
Put another way, those fearing the idea of the 49ers taking Jones should probably wait until the team makes their pick exactly one month from Monday’s news conference before taking Simms’ opinions as gospel.
