On Tuesday night, the Houston Rockets will learn whether they’re set to land a potential franchise cornerstone… or if they have to wait to select anyone until the No. 18 overall pick in the 2021 first round.
It’s a monumental day thanks to the NBA’s annual draft lottery, which will finalize the ordering of all picks in the July 29 draft. For the Rockets, the stakes are even more dramatic than for most teams, since Oklahoma City has a top-four-protected “pick swap” (obtained from the July 2019 blockbuster trade involving Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook) allowing them to exchange Miami’s first-round pick for that of Houston, so long as it is not in one of the four spots determined by the lottery.
After finishing with the league’s worst record (17-55) in the 2020-21 regular season, the Rockets have the maximum possible odds for a top-four selection. However, those odds are not as strong as they used to be, thanks to the NBA’s recently revised lottery weighting percentages — designed to disincentivize tanking schemes for higher draft picks.
In short, it’s now basically a coin-flip proposition on whether the Rockets will land a top prospect such as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, or Jalen Green. The odds are 52.1% that Houston keeps its pick and drafts in the top four, and 47.9% that it finishes at No. 5 and goes to Oklahoma City (with Miami’s No. 18 pick sent to Houston).
Feeling lucky? After checking out the lottery odds for all teams, take a look at the leading prop bets and make a wager or two, if you like. Make your selections to reveal the results, and see if other fans agree!
