NBA free agency officially kicked off at 12.01am ET this morning. Although the list of players that will become free agents contains stars like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol, it’s incredibly unlikely that these big names will end up switching teams. Just because we’re (probably) not going to get a Decision Part 3, that doesn’t mean there won’t be intrigue and drama. Here are five players to keep an eye on during the summer.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Although he opted out of his contract, LeBron James is almost certainly returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers next season. One of his most important team mates might not, however. In terms of soap opera-esque drama, the top story of this year’s free agency will be about whether or not power forward Kevin Love will or won’t return to the Cavaliers.
Looked at objectively, it seems that there is absolutely no reason for Love to head elsewhere. First and foremost, the Cavaliers can offer him more money than any other team, something which tends to factor into free agent decision-making.
And if Love is more interested in winning championships than making money, well, the Cavaliers are still his best bet. Just a month ago, the Cavaliers made it to game six of the NBA finals despite losing Love to a shoulder injury in the first round, and Kyrie Irving in the first game of their climactic series against a heavily favored Golden State Warriors team. Because of this, according to many reports, the most likely scenario is that he will be back in Cleveland next season.
Love returning to play with James, of course, doesn’t fit with the current media narrative that has developed during Love’s first year with the Cavaliers. The very second Love opted out of his contract, there was this idea that he would pull a Dwight Howard and bolt from his current team after playing only a single season.
The reason for this? Love and James aren’t BFFs, so Love’s clearly going to take the ball and go elsewhere. Somewhere along the way, we were seeking clues to their relationship, or lack thereof, on James’s Instagram account at the expense of analyzing the games themselves. It was downright embarrassing to see the conversation in the media devolve to the standards of middle school lunchroom gossip.
Let’s suppose all of this is true, that there is a disconnect between Love and the Cavaliers. Let’s say Love can’t stand James and is upset that head coach David Blatt didn’t use him properly. Maybe Love, currently the third option on the team, would welcome the chance to be the number one guy again (although that didn’t go over very well back in his days with Minnesota).
Even if all that is true, it still wouldn’t make sense that Love would turn down the team that could both pay him the most money and put him in the best possible position to win. This doesn’t mean that he won’t leave, players do stuff that doesn’t make sense all time, just that it would be a huge mistake on his part.
Teams with interest: the Boston Celtics, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Houston Rockets, the Phoenix Suns. Basically everyone, really.
Where he’ll end up: Don’t believe the hype. He’s headed back to Cleveland.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
One thing that became clear days before the NBA draft was that LeMarcus Aldridge most likely will not be a Portland Trail Blazer next season. Shortly after the Trail Blazers’ surprising decision to trade Nic Batum to the Charlotte Hornets, word leaked that the organization wasn’t expecting to re-sign their franchise player. The Trail Blazers might have even already found his replacement as they signed free agent Aminu Al-Farouq, previously with the Dallas Mavericks, to a 4 years/$30m deal.
The news was disappointing for Trail Blazers fans: losing Aldridge and Batum makes it very likely that the team will be seeking to rebuild after an all-too-brief period of being in playoff contention. It however was not completely shocking. Aldridge had been ambivalent about Portland for the last few years. The hope was that the emergence of Damian Lillard’s and the Trail Blazers’ subsequent transformation into a postseason threat, would be enough to convince him to stay.
It apparently was not enough. The Trail Blazers have been successful, but they have never really looked like a team truly capable of surviving the bloody basketball death match that is the Western Conference playoffs. With that in mind, it’s hard to blame Aldridge if he wants out.
It also makes sense that reports have him looking to join a team with a higher profile. There must be a certain amount of frustration in being an all-star wasting his prime years on a team that barely gets any national coverage.
As a free agent, Aldridge will now receive plenty of it. As of now, it appears that the Los Angeles Lakers are the frontrunners for his services. The San Antonio Spurs, a storied franchise if not a large market team, are sending in the big guns, aka Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Gregg Popovich, to recruit him. In other words, the entire basketball world will be paying attention to him soon enough.
Teams with interest: the Los Angeles Lakers, the San Antonio Spurs, the Dallas Mavericks, the Phoenix Suns, the New York Knicks, the Toronto Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks.
Where he’ll end up: The Lakers.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
DeAndre Jordan isn’t the most talented player on this list, but he could end up having the biggest impact. Should Jordan leave the Los Angeles Clippers, they would be losing their third most important player and there isn’t an obvious possible replacement out there for him.
Maybe teams with more depth could absorb such a loss, but the Clippers have already been exposed as a three-man team in the playoffs, where the Houston Rockets ended their bid for the first conference finals appearance in team history thanks to a historic game six comeback. If Jordan leaves, that game might be remembered as the game where the Chris Paul-era Clippers squandered their best chance to make it past the second round of the playoffs.
Now Jordan very well could stay, the Clippers after all can pay him the most money and he would be part of a team that will have a shot of the finals every year, barring injuries to Paul and Blake Griffin.
There are clear advantages to staying put, but he is determined to at least test free agency. Jordan has already scheduled visits with the Dallas Mavericks, who the Clippers see as their biggest threat, the Los Angeles Lakers and the New York Knicks along with his current team. As it stands, there’s a 50/50 chance that he’s leaving, an event that would tip the scales of the Western Conference no matter where he goes.
Teams with interest: the Dallas Mavericks, the Los Angeles Lakers, the New York Knicks, the Houston Rockets, the Milwaukee Bucks.
Where he’ll end up: Dallas Mavericks. Maybe. Of the players on this list, Jordan is the hardest to project.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
It’s nearly impossible to imagine Dwyane Wade wearing the uniform of any team besides the Miami Heat, but it very well could happen soon. On Monday, Wade opted out of his contract with the only pro team he’s ever been on. Could the most important player in Heat history be heading somewhere else? It would be Paul-Pierce-in-a-Wizards-uniform levels of weirdness.
After several years of taking paycuts so that the Heat could pay LeBron James and Chris Bosh, Wade is understandably looking for his team to pay him back with a large contract along the lines of the one the Lakers offered Kobe Bryant. Considering that Bryant’s contract is one of the worst in recent NBA history, it’s equally understandable that the Heat would be reluctant to do so, especially since trade deadline acquisition Goran Dragic is seeking a max deal.
Wade is in decline, but last season he played at a high level, with occasional flashes of vintage Flash, when he could make it on the court. Now clearly, the last part of that sentence is a pretty serious caveat. Any team who signs Wade will have to know that he probably will not be able to play more than two thirds of the regular season games. It’s very possible that teams will be reluctant to give him more money than than the Heat’s best offer.
This is fitting. Wade’s more valuable to the Heat than he would be too any other franchise. If Bosh returns healthy, a trio of Wade/Bosh/Goran Dragic, bolstered by draft day steal Justise Winslow, might be enough to win the Eastern Conference finals. Without Wade giving them what he did last season, which is not at all guaranteed, it’s difficult to picture the Heat going anywhere.
Teams with interest: Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers (and that would be interesting)
Where he’ll end up: Miami Heat. I mean, he has to right?
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Has any player had a better contract year? Last season Jimmy Butler went from a surprising effective starter for the Chicago Bulls to their hands-down best player. He was even a MVP candidate at the start of the season.
It’s a good thing Butler made the leap when he did. It was clear last season that the Bulls can’t rely on Derrick Rose, not with his injury concerns, and that center Joakim Noah is completely worn down after several seasons of carrying this team. This is Butler’s team now, or at least it will be if he comes back, which is why the Bulls have already offered him a max contract of 90m over five years.
Butler declined the offer, as he’s searching for a short-term deal that would allow him to sign a more lucrative contract when the salary cap increases in a few years. It’s believed that he will be seeking a more modest contract another team, most likely the Los Angeles Lakers.
Unfortunately that may be out of his hands as Butler is a restricted free agent, which means that the Bulls can match any offer given to him by another team. Chicago has no real choice in matching whatever options are out there. It’s hard to even imagine what this team would look like next season without Butler. Five Kirk Hinrichs? Expect the Bulls to do whatever it takes to retain Butler’s services. Not signing him is not an option.
Teams with interest: the Los Angeles Lakers (yes, they’re interested in literally everybody), Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks.
Where he’ll end up: Chicago Bulls
Other notable free agents
Who’s already signed: Aminu Al-Farouq to the Portland Trail Blazers (4 years/$30m); Kawhi Leonard re-signed with the San Antonio Spurs (5 years/90m); Brook Lopez re-signed with the Brooklyn Nets (3 year/60m); Thaddeus Young re-signed with the Brooklyn Nets (4 years/50m)
Who will probably stay: Cleveland Cavaliers’ LeBron James and Tristan Thompson; Golden State Warriors’ Draymond Green; the Memphis Grizzlies’ Marc Gasol; the San Antonio Spurs’ Tim Duncan and Manu Ginoili (if he doesn’t retire); the Phoenix Suns’ Brandon Knight; Minnesota Timberwolves’ Kevin Garnett (or what’s left of him).
Who is likely to go: the Detroit Pistons’ Greg Monroe, the Dallas Mavericks’ Rajon Rondo.
Who knows: San Antonio Spurs’ Danny Green; Portland Trail Blazers’ Wesley Matthews, Aaron Affalo and Robin Lopez; Orlando Magic’s Tobias Harris; Dallas Mavericks’ Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler, the Atlanta Hawks’ Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll; the Miami Heat’s Goran Dragic, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Khris Middleton; Oklahoma City Thunder’s Enes Kanter; the Detroit Pistons’ Reggie Jackson; the Houston Rockets’ Josh Smith and Patrick Beverly; the Toronto Raptors’ Lou Williams and Amir Johnson; the Indiana Pacers’ Rodney Stuckey and David West; the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova; the New Orleans Pelicans’ Omer Asik; the Washington Wizards’ Paul Pierce.
