20 for 2020: 20 key college football offseason topics, No. 2: 5 nutty, out there predictions that just might turn out to be right.
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20 for 2020 Offseason Topics
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. 5 Teams That Might Disappoint
6. 5 Teams That Might Surprise
5. Group of Five Conference Ranking
4. Power 5 Conference Ranking
3. Top Non-Obvious Heisman Candidates
1. NEXT: The College Football Playoff call
We’ll keep on doing what we do whether or not there’s a season, but all thoughts go out to those suffering and struggling, and to all the health care workers battling above and beyond the call. Please … stay safe.
Welcome once again to the annual three-true-outcome piece.
With these offseason big-swing cuts, I either walk, strike out – usually in painfully embarrassing fashion – or hit a towering home run.
Last year, for example, I struck out big-time with the call that Texas A&M would beat Clemson on the way to being a big thing, and whiffed harder on the idea that Michigan would win the Big Ten championship.
I’ll take the K on the call that Urban Meyer would be the next USC head coach, but it was on a borderline pitch off the edge of the plate. I lined out by saying Oklahoma would get to the CFP and end up playing for the national title, but I cleared the fence by calling that either Clemson or Alabama would miss out on the College Football Playoff.
So you get the idea.
Oh, I’ll miss massively on a few of these, but …
Get ready for 1977 World Series Game 6 Reggie Jackson.
5. There will be college football in 2020, but …
It will depend on how we all get through what’s potentially coming.
If the optics of playing a fun game are too awful five months from now, then it’s an absolute and hard no on a season. However, if the country wants and needs any sort of a morale boost/diversion, and the mood is there for football …
Football will figure something out.
It might not be a full season, but – obviously this is I’m-not-a-doctor-or-specialist speculation – if it’s possible 4-to-6 months from now, the NCAA will 1) procure enough easy tests with quick results to ensure that no infected player or coach goes on the field, and 2) will get creative enough with the timing and scheduling to have college football in some form.
CFN in 60: 5 Nutty College Football Predictions Video
Knock out two other key elements from the equation.
First, until there’s a vaccine, just forget about the idea of any fans being in the stands until 2021, and even that’s a maybe.
There are too many parts that athletic directors and the NCAA can’t control, and squishing together tens of thousands of people together in a stadium is an easy – but painful – part of the logistics that can be eliminated.
Also, don’t assume for a second that player preparedness has anything to do with this. Whether or not the guys are in shape is on them, the coaches, and the programs.
The NCAA might relax the time restrictions and practice limit rules, but if there’s a way to get players on the field playing college football in front of TV cameras, it’s going to happen.
Remember, the NBA, NHL, NCAA, and – even with a little more time – MLB were caught totally flat-footed. The NFL and college football powers-that-be have at least four months to come up with a way to do what they do.
It might take draconian measures – like sequestering and quarantining the players once they have negative tests – and/or it might take daily checkups, but if there’s any possible way to have football before the end of the year, it’ll happen.
Now, assuming that is all true in some way …
NEXT: No. 4 Nutty Offseason Prediction
4. USC will have a big year and Clay Helton will get an extension
Call this the opposite of last year’s No. 4 on this list, when the prediction was for Urban Meyer to be the USC head coach starting about now.
It’s not just that the Trojans haven’t dominated the national college football landscape under Clay Helton, it’s that the guy who can make it happen is spending his Saturdays working just up the road.
Of course Meyer would rock up recruiting right away and make USC the player of players in the Pac-12, but that obviously didn’t happen this offseason.
Urban Meyer is Urban Meyer, and Helton is still at the helm despite his 13-12 record over the last two years. But these things sometimes have a funny way of shifting.
No, this won’t be an Ed Orgeron situation where Helton goes from No. 1 on everyone’s list of hot seat coaches to national champion with a few tweaks, but …
He’s got a fabulous team coming back.
USC is only losing two real NFL prospects – OT Austin Jackson and WR Michael Pittman – at least 19 starters are potentially returning, and 12 of the top 13 tacklers were underclassmen last year.
The passing game that blew up at times over last season under OC Graham Harrell comes back loaded, the quarterback situation is terrific, and the “no one respects us” attitude is about kick in.
It also helps that the Pac-12 South is once again going to be a whole lot of whatever.
Starting out against Alabama won’t help the resurgence, and going to Oregon and Utah will be tough, but – sticking with the nutty call premise of this – USC will win enough to get to the Pac-12 Championship game for the second time in four years.
NEXT: No. 3 Nutty Offseason Prediction
3. Clemson will lose two regular season games
File this under the Will Keep Throwing This Against The Wall Until It Sticks category, because whether it was Georgia two years ago, or Clemson last season, or Alabama a few times here and there, this type of call never seems to come through.
I’m going to keep on hacking at it, though.
In 2014, Clemson got rocked by Georgia in the season opener, lost two weeks later to Florida State, and got shut down by Georgia Tech late in the year. That was the last time the Tigers lost two games in the regular season, and 2017 was the only time in the last five seasons that they’ve lost more than one game.
It took an injury to QB Kelly Bryant against Syracuse, and a CFP semifinal loss to eventual national champion Alabama for that to happen. This program just doesn’t lose regular season games.
It’s going to be the No. 1 team in the country to start the season – top three at worst – and personnel-wise, there’s nothing there to expect anything less than another ACC Championship to go along with the annual trip to the College Football Playoff.
So what could possibly go wrong?
The rest of the ACC will be better after being used as a speed bump.
Oh sure, North Carolina was terrific last year in a 21-20 loss, but all that did was anger the beast. After the trip to Chapel Hill, a 45-14 win over Florida State became Clemson’s idea of a nail-biter over the final six dates against league foes.
This year – unless there’s a key injury or five – the Tigers will likely be double-digit favorites against everyone on the schedule. However, Louisville will be dangerous, Virginia will still be good, a trip to Florida State will be interesting, and …
It’s going to take something totally wacky for Clemson to lose an ACC game.
It’s not as if there haven’t been a few close calls to go along with the needed-something-epic-to-pull-off-the-upset losses in ACC play over the last five years, and all it might take is one to screw everything up.
So if there’s just one shocker in conference play – or even against (gasp) South Carolina if the planets align correctly – then there has to be one other loss to make this call happen.
That’s where this comes in …
NEXT: No. 2 Nutty Offseason Prediction
2. Notre Dame will be a major player in the College Football Playoff chase
Will Notre Dame be one of the four best teams in college football? Nah, but it wasn’t one in 2018, either, and it got into the College Football Playoff.
How? The Irish earned it. If it was so easy to go unbeaten, everyone would do it.
They were very good, got past a solid Michigan team to start the season, caught the break of having most of the tough games at home, played down Virginia Tech and USC teams on the road, and boom … 12-0.
This year, they won’t have to go unbeaten to be in the CFP mix.
If this season somehow goes according to plan, they start out against Navy in Dublin, Ireland. But let’s say they play the Midshipmen anywhere – that’s still not that bad.
Then Arkansas, then Western Michigan, then Wake Forest.
Stanford will be better, but that’s a home game. Duke, at Georgia Tech, and Louisville will be fun, but this Notre Dame team should be good enough to handle them.
That leaves three killers on the slate to deal with.
The first is against Wisconsin in Lambeau Field. Win or lose that, at worst, Notre Dame should be 7-1 when it’s time for Catholics vs. Cats.
November 7th will be the first time Clemson comes to South Bend since it beat the Irish 16-10 back in 1979.
If the Tigers are unbeaten and No. 1, and Notre Dame can pull off the win, it’ll be enough of a boost to deserve top four discussion in the CFP at the end of the rainbow if it can also pull off a win at USC.
But is the team really going to be good enough?
It loses a ton of NFL talent, the receiving corps need work, and the secondary has to undergo an overhaul, but that’s what September is for. If the Irish had to deal with Clemson, Wisconsin or USC in the first few games, forget it.
The offensive line will be good, Ian Book is a better quarterback than he gets credit for, and the defensive front 6/7 should be able to carry that side until the ends and defensive backs get their feet wet.
And finally …
NEXT: No. 1 Nutty Offseason Prediction
1. There will be a two-loss SEC Champion
Out of the 27 Power Five conference championship games in the six-year College Football Playoff era – the Big 12 didn’t have a title game in the first three years – Oregon beating Utah in last year’s Pac-12 Championship and Ohio State beating Wisconsin in the 2017 Big Ten Championship were the only two times a multi-loss team effectively knocked a one-loss or unbeaten team out of the College Football Playoff.
Even then, neither of those two were shockers.
The SEC championships haven’t exactly gone chalk, but 2007 was the last time a team with more than one loss won the conference title, and LSU went on to win the national title.
2005 Georgia, 2001 LSU, 2000 Florida, 1999 Alabama, and 1993 Florida are the only other teams with multiple regular season losses to win the SEC Championship in the 28-year title game era, and 2014 Alabama was the only conference champ in the last eight years to not play for the national title.
Long opening short, there hasn’t been anything all that stunning in the SEC Championship for a long, long time, and we’re way overdue for a major upset or a team with two regular season losses to win the thing.
Just assume that one of the two teams in the SEC title game will have one loss or be unbeaten.
Unless something stunning happens, it’ll almost certainly be Florida or Georgia representing the East. However, Florida has to play LSU and Georgia, and Georgia has to go to Alabama and deal with Auburn and the Gators.
Throw in any sort of wrench into the mix – like last year’s South Carolina win over Georgia, or 2018’s Missouri win over Florida – and the East champ could certainly end up with two losses. And if it doesn’t …
Alabama starts out with USC and gets Georgia, at LSU, and dates with tough Texas A&M and Auburn teams. Auburn has to go on the road to Georgia and Bama. LSU deals with Texas, at Florida, Alabama, at Auburn, at Texas A&M. The Aggies go to Auburn and Alabama, and …
There are a whole lot of opportunities for whatever team that comes out of the West to have two losses.
It’s been 14 years for a multi-loss SEC champion. We’re way overdue, and then the College Football Playoff committee will have a blast of a call to make.
