Five Must-Watch Matchups for Air Force Basketball in 2019-20
The Falcons’ schedule includes a huge opportunity in the heart of Texas
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Which games should Air Force have circled on their calendars in 2019-20?
It’s been 15 long seasons since Air Force won its first and only Mountain West title and, while the Falcons are still a long way from getting back to those glory days, Dave Pilipovich has built a team that could surprise people in 2019-20. Led by seniors Lavelle Scottie and Ryan Swan, this team finished sixth in the league last season. Nearly everybody comes back for the Falcons this year, so Pilipovich will be trotting out a lot of experienced players.
But what kinds of gains can really be expected from Air Force?
While in-game experience is certainly a benefit of returning so many players, the flipside of that coin is that teams with so many guys coming back are really getting a lot of known quantities. As pointed out by Three Man Weave, there’s not much historical evidence that teams make huge jumps in seasons where everyone comes back.
Even if the Falcons don’t make leaps and bounds in 2019-20, they should still finish right around the .500 mark in league play and overall. But to do so, they’ll need to capitalize on a few key games. Air Force has chances to grab important wins – some for building confidence and chemistry, others for bragging rights. Here are the five biggest games to watch this year.
11/12 Army (West Point, NY)
As mentioned, some of the games listed here are mostly just for bragging rights. This game certainly doesn’t have the same cachet as an Army-Navy contest – really, none of the basketball rivalries hold a candle to football – but it is a budding rivalry nonetheless. The series was picked up in 2011 after the programs met only three times previously in their histories and has been played yearly ever since. The Black Knights have won five straight after dropping the first three, so the Falcons’ seniors will be looking to get one back in West Point. Army is bringing back some talented fourth-year players of their own in Tommy Funk and Matt Wilson. Funk was an All-Patriot third team selection as a junior and has led the Patriot League in assists in two straight years. He needs 145 assists more to become the conference’s all-time leader in that category. (Funk’s career-low for a season was 155 dimes in his freshman year, so it’s a pretty good bet that he will do it.)
11/18 TCU (Fort Worth, TX)
In terms of résumé-boosters in the non-conference schedule, this is it. The Falcons will fly to Fort Worth and take on Jamie Dixon’s team that narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament a year ago before making a semifinal run in the NIT. The Horned Frogs will again have all-conference guard Desmond Bane, a sleeper pick for more Big 12 hardware in 2019-20, but have suffered some significant roster turnover since the beginning of last year. Assist machine Alex Robinson and JD Miller graduated. Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen left early. Jaylen Fisher, Kaden Archie, Yuat Alok, and Kendric Davis transferred. Along with Bane, Kevin Samuel and RJ Nembhard are the only other returning players that logged real minutes for TCU last year. But Dixon has brought in talented grad transfers Edric Dennis (Texas-Arlington) and Jaire Grayer (George Mason) to provide depth and experience for this team. If the Falcons have any shot at an NCAA Tournament bid, this is a must-win game for them on the road.
12/7 Nevada (Colorado Springs, CO)
In their second early game under the Mountain West’s much-maligned new league schedule, the Falcons host Nevada in what could be a very important game. And while not everyone is happy about having to play conference games so early, Dave Pilipovich may have actually gotten a bit lucky with this draw. The Wolf Pack are in a state of flux after losing the core of their back-to-back-to-back Mountain West-winning teams. New head coach Steve Alford, making his return to the league after his ouster from UCLA, will rely on the experience of Jazz Johnson to help bring together the talent on the roster. Jalen Harris, Eric Parrish, and KJ Hymes are among the new faces that Nevada fans will grow to love – especially if they can keep the team afloat and back in contention for a fourth-consecutive league title. The Pack are expected to finish above Air Force in the Mountain West, but the blue-clad cadets could certainly throw a wrench in those plans with a well-timed haymaker here at home.
2/12 Boise State (Boise, ID)
The Broncos are coming off a rare down year under long-time head coach Leon Rice, but expectations are high for Boise State coming into this season. BSU is similar to Air Force in that they are both bringing back a huge amount of talent from very mediocre teams. But the Broncos have the talent edge, led by Derrick Alston (who will likely test the NBA Draft waters after this year) and sharpshooter Justinian Jessup. Because this matchup is later in the season, Rice will also have the services of Oregon transfer Abu Kigab, who will have to sit out the first semester. Likely a top-five team in the conference, Boise State is a squad that could very well find itself on the bubble in March if it plays its cards right. Air Force, however, will be looking to steal a game from them on the road. But this isn’t just about playing spoiler. This game could be a key matchup in the race for the fifth seed in the MWC Tournament – which is the last seed that receives a first-round bye.
2/29 Colorado State (Fort Collins, CO)
The in-state rivals will have already met once by this time, but with this being the last game of the regular season, this matchup will likely be the more significant of the two. Colorado State is another team that, like Boise State, is projected to finish somewhere in the middle of the Mountain West logjam between fifth and ninth place. So, like the previous game, this one could have direct implications on the race for the fifth seed. More likely, this contest will have more bearing on the seeding of the first round. A matchup with Wyoming or San Jose State would probably be the ideal outcome for a team in that first game. There’s a very real chance that this game decides who will get the seventh seed and its easier draw. The loser would likely face a team like UNLV or Fresno State in the 8/9 game. And while those teams aren’t exactly causing nightmares for anyone this offseason, they would certainly be tougher opponents than either of the Cowboys or Spartans. A win here will make one team’s life much easier.
Honorable Mention: 11/21-11/24 Junkanoo Jam (Bimini, Bahamas)
It is hard to identify just one game of the Junkanoo Jam that will be the most important. Really, the whole event has the potential to be a great bonding experience for the players, a reprieve from at least some of the rigors of life on a military campus, and a chance to snag a couple decent wins. However, last season’s trip to the Bahamas for the Bimini Jam was surely disappointing for the team, which lost to both UMBC and High Point. That showing precipitated the sixth-straight losing season in Pilipovich’s seven-year tenure. Maybe a couple a good results (and a few days on the beach during the dead of a Colorado autumn) can steer the team back in the right direction finally.
So, while Air Force will be hoping for a much better Thanksgiving weekend this time around, their competition will be much stiffer. First up is the WCC’s Loyola Marymount and their 7’4” Swedish behemoth, Mattias Markusson. After that, it’s Duquesne of the A-10. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes trending upwards for the first time in a long time, so expect that game to be a difficult battle. Lastly, the Falcons will take on Indiana State of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Sycamores were mediocre last year, but did go to Hawaii and beat Colorado and UNLV in the Diamond Head Classic.
Air Force could finish this year’s trip to the Bahamas with a record of 3-0, 0-3, or anywhere in between. They have the talent to compete, but do they have the composure to go out and execute their game plan? Using this event to prove that they can do just that would be a huge confidence booster heading into the conference season.
The Outlook
Air Force doesn’t really have a lot in the way of big games on the national level. While the Junkanoo Jam does have a nice lineup of middling mid-majors, a road trip to Fort Worth to take on TCU is really the only other game of note. The Horned Frogs are undoubtedly the Falcons highest-profile opponent in the non-conference season, but it’s difficult to envision Air Force winning that battle. Pilipovich also needs to make sure that his players have their heads on straight when Texas State comes to town after the Bobcats beat the Falcons in San Marcos last November.
But conference play is really where the success of Air Force’s season hinges. The Falcons needs to land shots against some of the teams around them in the standings. Those teams likely include New Mexico, Nevada, and Boise State ahead of the Falcons, with Colorado State, Fresno State, and UNLV not far behind. Winning some of the games above will help Air Force separate themselves from the lower tiers a bit – and could secure them easier passage in the league tournament in Las Vegas.
Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
