Ohio State is once again in the Big Ten Championship Game, and for the second time in the last 3 years, the Buckeyes take on Northwestern. With a strange 2020 season almost in the books, preparing for this game feels a little different. That does not mean Ohio State should take Northwestern lightly or without regard.
With Ohio State being huge favorites in this game, there are some keys to victory the Buckeyes should adhere to if they want to walk out victors. An extra week off probably helps Ryan Day and the staff more than it does the players, and if the Buckeyes want to continue their march toward the playoffs, they must win this game. Onward to five keys toward a Buckeyes’ victory.
NEXT…Don’t force plays to happen on offense
Northwestern has a really good defense, take what is given…
Most underrated player in the B1G. He is going to be a very good pro. Brandon Joseph is another great young DB.
Northwestern's pass defense:
-1st in FBS opponent passer rating
-1st in FBS opponent yards per pass attempt
-1st in P5 scoring defense
-2nd FBS INTs per game
— 🎩(6-1) B1G NU Fan 🎩 (@NUCatFan23) December 17, 2020
One look at a Northwestern game this season and its passing defense just jumps right out. The Wildcats get pressure up front with a lot of speed, and the secondary capitalizes on the mistakes of opposing quarterbacks. Justin Fields needs to take what is given in the passing game and not get baited into making a bad throw. Northwestern will be looking for opportunities for creating turnovers to keep itself in the game.
Longer developing plays will probably not work against Northwestern. Justin Fields and Ryan Day must utilize quicker timing routes and pockets in the zone coverage. If the Buckeyes can get to where the aggressive Wildcats defense starts biting on play-action, then they might be able to push the ball downfield as the game goes on.
NEXT…Speaking of play-action…
The running game can help the passing game…
Justin Fields off play action: 33-35 for 357 yards (10.2 yds/att) and 3 TDpic.twitter.com/FUj0Ge0a72
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) November 9, 2020
It seems like an old and archaic philosophy to say use the run to set up the pass, but against a very aggressive Wildcats defense, it might be exactly what needs to happen. Northwestern is giving up 3.79 yards per carry and 121.9 yards on the ground per game. If there is a weakness to the defense it is a struggle to stop the run because of an over-anxious attitude. There were several times this season the Northwestern defense overpursued and allowed running backs to pick up yards in chunks.
As Master Teague III and Trey Sermon wear the defense down, it should open up play-action for Fields and the passing game. As long as the Buckeyes stick to running the ball it will force Northwestern to get outside of its comfort zone on defense. As good as the Wildcats have been on that side of the ball, it has not seen an offense like Ohio State.
NEXT…Force Peyton Ramsey to beat you
Peyton Ramsey has been efficient, just not overly effective…
Northwestern’s offense…
17 points vs Wisconsin (2-3)
20 points vs MSU (2-5)
21 points vs Iowa
21 points vs Nebraska (2-5)
27 points vs Purdue (2-4)
28 points vs Illinois (2-5) pic.twitter.com/UdYiTM8FQP— Mr. Ohio (@MrOH1O) December 14, 2020
I know, the tweet above is missing the Maryland game, it seems to be an outlier for the 2020 Northwestern Wildcats. They have relied on defense to carry them much of the season. The Wildcat rushing attack is ranked No. 60 in the country with an average of 170.6 yards per game. The passing game is even more disappointing, ranking 106th with 180.9 yards per game. Keep the offense behind the chains and good things will happen.
Peyton Ramsey has been pretty good at protecting the ball, but he has some mechanical and footwork issues that the coaching staff has been able to cover up this season. If the Buckeyes can force him to sling it around a little more than normal, he will struggle and make mistakes.
NEXT…Don’t get cute
Play the game within the gameplan and don’t get too cute…
Again with caveats regarding advanced metrics this year, but it's easy to see why OSU, Clemson, and Bama are out front.
Considerably separation between Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the pack in QB efficiency.https://t.co/T3g3w2ee1J pic.twitter.com/YFSLQF0E5k
— CollegeFootballData.com (@CFB_Data) November 16, 2020
One thing some teams will do when facing an aggressive defense will be to surprise them. We have seen teams roll out a bunch of trick plays throughout the years, and this would not be a game to do that. The Northwestern defense is really fast and loves to come downhill to the line of scrimmage. A bunch of end-arounds and complex route combinations will play right into the strength of the Wildcats — just stick to the gameplan.
Justin Fields is really efficient this season and there is no reason to try to get cute with playcalling. Fields can beat teams in a myriad of ways and calling plays that might be outside of his comfort levels and rhythm will not help. A well-timed play here and there should work, but don’t overdo it.
NEXT…Win on special teams
Special teams need to be, special…
Week 16 Beta_Rank Special Teams
21 Ohio State
22 Arizona State
23 Northwestern
24 TCU
25 Oregon State
26 Tulane
27 BYU
28 Northern Illinois
29 UCF
30 Kansas Statehttps://t.co/tbmiwQAdZp— Sharp College Football (@Sharp_CFB) December 14, 2020
The special teams for Northwestern has also been positive in 2020. Both the return game and return defense has been rather good, and are on even footing with Ohio State. If the Buckeyes can win the field position battle, the special teams must help out with shorter fields.
This is not a game where missed opportunities can be easily overcome, so field goals and extra points need to be hit. If Ohio State can pin Northwestern deep enough, field goals could come invaluable for both teams. The special teams need to be special, or at least consistent.
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