The 2026 World Baseball Classic kicks off Wednesday night and it is shaping up to be one of the most competitive tournaments in the event’s history. Several countries will bring their best rosters ever to this edition, which could upend the typical hierarchy.
Team USA enters the tournament as the big favorite, but behind the Americans, there is a big pool of contenders looking to battle for the title. Anything could happen over the next few weeks.
We have already ranked the teams in the 2026 WBC, now it’s projection time. Here’s a look at five bold predictions for this year’s tournament.
The Dominican Republic will be the biggest threat to Team USA
Team USA is firmly entrenched as the favorite as the WBC kicks off, while Japan are defending champions. The Japanese could be expected to compete for a title again, given their history of success at the tournament, but another team should be most concerning for the U.S.
The Dominican Republic will be Team USA’s biggest threat this year. In a warmup game against the Tigers on Tuesday, the DR’s lineup pounded out 12 runs on 19 hits, and it was no fluke. The team has the best and deepest lineup in the tournament, and the group they trotted out to face Detroit was downright scary.
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
- Ketel Marte, 2B
- Juan Soto, LF
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
- Manny Machado, 3B
- Junior Caminero, DH
- Julio Rodríguez, CF
- Austin Wells, C
- Geraldo Perdomo, SS
Tatis, Soto, Machado and Caminero combined to go 10-for-16 with three home runs, a double and 7 RBIs. Three of them were pulled in favor of reserves in the fifth inning, while Caminero was taken out in the seventh.
The Dominicans will need a big lift from Marlins righty Sandy Alcántara atop their rotation, while Cristopher Sanchez, Brayan Bello and Luis Severino also need to step up to support the team’s offense. But that lineup should be able to outscore almost anyone.
Japan will have its worst finish ever
The Japanese are the defending champions, have won the event three times, and have never finished worse than third place. They’ll fall short of that lofty history in 2026.
Japan dominated the 2023 tournament, as the team won all seven of the games it played, scoring 56 runs while only allowing 18. Unfortunately, the roster is a bit different this time around. Shohei Ohtani is back, but he won’t be on the mound. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is back, but he is the only starting pitcher returning from the five who toed the mound in 2026.
A thinner pitching staff will put pressure on what should be a good lineup. Ohtani leads the way, while soon-to-be debuting big leaguers Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto will back him up. Seiya Suzuki will also be in the lineup, as will NPB All-Star Shugo Maki.
Japan should easily escape Pool C, but may not have the firepower to finish in the top three again.
Mexico will be a surprise contender
Mexico was a surprise third-place finisher in 2023 and was three outs away from beating Japan to reach the final. Despite that, the team seems to be flying under the radar heading into this year’s tournament.
The Mexican lineup will be led by Alejandro Kirk, Jarren Duran, Randy Arozarena and Jonathan Aranda. There should be a lot of punch there. The starting staff could be thin, with Javier Assad and Taijuan Walker at the top. If a game is close in the late innings, one of baseball’s best closers in
Andrés Muñoz will be there to shut it down.
Mexico’s path could be determined by how supporting players like Luis Urias, Alek Thomas and Joey Ortiz play. Still, the top of the lineup has enough punch that the team should contend this year.
Canada will make it out of pool play for the first time
Canada’s 2026 roster may be the best it has ever sent to the WBC. Freddie Freeman opted out, but the lineup should still be potent with Bo and Josh Naylor, Tyler O’Neill and top prospect Owen Caissie leading the way. Tyler Black, Otto Lopez and Denzel Clark will provide depth.
Mike Soroka and Jameson Taillon will start the team’s first two games, while Logan Allen and Cal Quantrill will provide quality depth. It should be a solid group to back up a lineup that has enough talent to make things uncomfortable for opponents.
Canada sits in Pool A, with a depleted Puerto Rico team, a Cuban squad that is a bit of a mystery, and Panama and Colombia teams with numerous question marks. The Canadians are well-positioned to get out of group play for the first time in their WBC history.
Bobby Witt Jr. will win MVP
Over the past two seasons, the MLB leaders in fWAR are Aaron Judge (21.5) and Bobby Witt Jr. (18.5). That’s right, the Royals’ shortstop has been more valuable than Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, José Ramirez and every other major league superstar. The 2026 WBC is his chance to become a household name.
In 2025, Witt slashed .295/.351/.501 with 23 home runs, 88 RBIs, 38 stolen bases and a 130 wRC+. That followed his brilliant 2024 campaign in which the 25-year-old posted a .977 OPS while leading MLB in batting average (.332), with 32 home runs, 109 RBIs and a wRC+ of 169. He’s one of baseball’s best offensive players, has won two straight Gold Gloves at shortstop and should be a perennial MVP contender for years to come.
Witt appears poised to lead off for Team USA, so he’ll get plenty of chances to make his mark. Meanwhile, his stellar defense at short could provide plenty of highlights. Expect him to be a big part of what the U.S. does during the tournament.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Five Bold Predictions for the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
