Another Sacramento Kings season is about to tip off Wednesday night. With each new year, hope springs eternal. Anything is possible while your record sits at 0-0. But hope can also set us up for disappointment. Should we be expecting something truly different this year?
Probably not. The Kings won’t be the worst team in the Western Conference, but they also won’t make the playoffs. Sacramento has finished between 9th and 14th in the West for a decade straight. The smart bet is that they stay in that familiar range.
But that’s no surprise. And it’s no fun to read about, either. So let’s move past the mediocre and boring big picture and get into some specific predictions for the 2020-21 season. It’s time to get bold and call some shots.
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KINGS WILL COMFORTABLY HIT THE OVER
For most betting sites, Sacramento’s win total has been set around 27.5 wins. That puts them 14th in the West and 25th overall. The Oklahoma City Thunder are alone at the bottom with a stunningly low projection of 21 wins. The Minnesota Timberwolves, the San Antonio Spurs and the Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be slightly better than Sacramento, but not by much.
While I don’t expect the Kings to be in the playoff race, I do think this line is too low. One thing I know for certain is that the Kings never tank, even when they should. The players want to win and coach Luke Walton, whose job may depend on a few late-season victories, will do everything he can to make that happen. I’m comfortable projecting this team for at least 30 wins.
As the season winds down, a lot of teams will capitulate. The league does its best to stop blatant tanking, but every year we see what are essentially G-League lineups in regular season NBA games. The Kings may not have star power, but they do have solid veteran depth. They couldn’t even tank properly if they wanted to.
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JOSEPH WILL BE TRADED BY THE DEADLINE
Speaking of veterans, something tells me that shedding a few will be a primary goal for the franchise this year. They don’t have enough minutes available to develop players like a young team should. De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, and Tyrese Haliburton will get major roles, but that might be it until some moves are made.
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Cory Joseph stands out above the rest as a trade priority. Fox is the team’s best player, and like Jospeh, he’s a point guard. Haliburton is the team’s best rookie, and he’s more than capable of running the second unit. After Kyle Guy put up performances of 14 and 20 points in the preseason, it may be time to give the second-year man a place in the rotation.
And look, Joseph is good. He’s certainly much better than Guy is today. But he’s a 29-year-old defensive specialist. His value to an established playoff team is much higher than it is for the rebuilding Kings. Considering his contract is only partially guaranteed next year, he should be desirable to many teams before the trade deadline.
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BJELICA WILL FALL OUT OF THE ROTATION
Kings fans love Nemanja Bjelica. He’s funny, he’s laid back, and he’s an absolutely elite outside shooter. He has already given Kings fans a number of moments they will never forget. Game-winners, hilarious profanity, a body type that feels achievable if we really tried — Bjelica is a crowd-pleaser.
However, he’s the oldest player on the team and his defensive ability is just about gone. He got picked on in the bubble last year and looked even slower in preseason. And while he is another solid candidate for a trade, I fear his defense could unravel to the point where competitive teams won’t want him. If you can’t defend, you can’t play postseason minutes.
Bagley is a lock to take the starting job at power forward (as long as he stays healthy) and Harrison Barnes will need to play up a position more as he gets older. Robert Woodard and DaQuan Jeffries also deserve a chance to absorb some of Bjelica’s minutes, whether he is traded or simply phased out.
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HALIBURTON WILL GET ALL-ROOKIE HONORS
Believe it or not, last season was the first time in five years that the Kings did not have a player selected to an NBA All-Rookie team. Bagley made the first team in 2018-19, Bogdan Bogdanovic made the second team in 2017-18, Hield was a first-teamer in 2016-17 and Willie Cauley-Stein just barely made the cut in 2015-16.
The competition is steep this year, despite a weak top of the class. There won’t be many superstars from this draft, but there will be a lot of solid players worthy of the All-Rookie team. Bagley, Hield and Cauley-Stein were top-six picks and Bogdanovic came over from Europe as a polished pro. Haliburton was picked 12th and has a steeper climb to earn his spot.
Despite his draft position, I see Haliburton as a lock for the second team, a favorite for the first team, and legitimate candidate for Rookie of the Year. He showed that he is NBA-ready in the preseason and there is no doubt that he will get a huge opportunity. The only question is if his success will show up enough in the numbers, which is usually where voters tend to look first.
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HIELD WILL BE AN UNLIKELY ALL-STAR
OK, time for a longshot. I can’t say these predictions are bold unless I include something truly unlikely. No one thinks of Hield as an All-Star candidate, but I could see him shock the world this year. Hield averaged 20.7 points in his third season and seemed to have more potential to uncover. After a down year, I think he bounces back and shows just that.
With Bogdanovic in Atlanta, Hield’s share of the offense is going to get larger. He should go back to starting every game. Walton says he is committed to a higher pace and has also shown more awareness of Hield’s specific skill set. Walton knows Buddy deserves a neon green light, and I think he gives it to him all year.
Hield will average 25 points per game. A few more 3-point attempts each night and a return to his elite efficiency of years past should get him there. Unfortunately, the West is still crazy deep with superstar guards. But players that score that much always seem to find their way to accolades, so I think Hield can get it done.
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WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR
After that doozie, I’m going to call it a day for the official predictions. But other things to keep an eye on this season include a potential flurry of trades. While I think Joseph and Bjelica are the leading candidates to finish the season on a different team, very few players on the roster are untouchable.
Fox’s shooting progression is another thing to monitor closely. His 3-point percentage dropped from 37.1% in 2018-19 to 29.2% last season. In the preseason, he shot a mere 14.8%. It’s not time to panic, but this is a troubling sign for Sacramento’s franchise player. After giving him a maximum contract, the Kings desperately need Fox to shoot over 30% from deep.
Finally, I’m convinced that another young player will emerge from the bottom of the rotation, I’m just not sure who it will be yet. Guy is the fan favorite after his game-winner in the preseason. Justin James showed nice flashes last year. Woodard and Jahmi’us Ramsey were steals in the second round. Watch them all closely this season, because their opportunities will come.
