Cowabunga! The Democratic Blue Wave crashed onto the Jersey Shore, Virginia Beach, Rockaway Beach, Malibu and even the shores of Georgia and Miami.
In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger did not just beat Winsome Earle-Sears: she crushed the Republican to become the first female governor of the commonwealth.
The same night, Jay Jones, the nominee for attorney general, overcame a scandal where he texted a Republican colleague, likening the former Republican speaker of the House of Delegates to Hitler and calling the speaker’s children “little fascists”, and won.
In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill overcame plenty of doubters and clocked in a double-digit victory for the governorship against Republican Jack Ciattarelli when polling either showed her within single digits or even in a dead-heat. In doing so, she defied gravity and New Jersey will elect a Democrat as governor for the third consecutive time since 1961.
Then there was Zohran Mamdani, the insurgent democratic socialist, who dislodged Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor of New York, to become the first Muslim mayor of New York City. And the Big Apple’s youngest in 100 years. Meanwhile, in Georgia, Democrats flipped two public service commissioner seats. And to boot, after years of being the butt of every joke, a Democratic candidate will advance to the runoff race to be mayor of Miami.
Added to that, California’s governor, Trump nemesis and presumptive 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom capped the evening with a big win on his Proposition 50 ballot measure to create as many as five more Democratic congressional seats — countering a move made by Republicans in Texas.
There is no way to spin this: the American people sent a stinging message to Donald Trump in droves, saying they are sick of his presidency just 10 months in. Here are the four takeaways that should terrify the president, House Speaker Mike Johnson and the Senate GOP, and a reality check for Democrats.
Record turnout
Not only did Democrats turn up, they did so with record turnout.
In New York City, voters saw the highest turnout since 1969, surpassing 2 million votes cast. And it wasn’t just Mamdani-mania: the Washington, DC suburb of Falls Church, Virginia outpaced even their 2024 election performance. When The Independent showed Democratic Sen. Mark Warner the turnout in the afternoon, he was surprised.
“That’s positive for my team,” he said. Warner pointed out that voters in the northern part of Virginia were furious about Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) slashing agencies where they work.
“It was forever ago, but, you know, dismantling of USAID. A lot of those folks lived in Falls Church,” Warner told The Independent. “I mean, with this President continuing to push all the boundaries, I just don't think Virginians have signed up for that.”
The same can be said about New Jersey. In places like Middlesex County, which Kamala Harris won by only eight points and incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy won by 13, Sherrill won by 25 points. In 2021, only 208,758 people voted in Middlesex. This time around, more than 262,000 people turned out.
Transphobia falls flat
Perhaps no ad scared Democrats in 2024 more than Trump’s ad targeting Kamala Harris for taxpayer-funded gender reassignment surgeries for prison inmates, ending with the tagline “Kamala is for They/Them”, but “President Trump is for you.” Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican nominee for governor in Virginia, tried to hit Spanberger with an almost identical ad. But it didn’t play. In fact, a Washington Post/Schar School poll showed that only 3 percent of Virginians thought policies about transgender students were the most important issue. And AtlasIntel showed that voters in New Jersey and Virginia thought the Democratic candidate had a better approach to transgender rights.
Democrats of all stripes focus on one word: Affordability
In 2024, Trump largely won because of post-Covid inflation. Joe Biden said it would be “temporary.” That sounded flippant to many Americans and allowed Trump to beat Democrats. Mamdani popularized it with his proposals to freeze rent, provide free buses and free childcare in New York.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told The Independent Mamdani’s campaign had a simple lesson: “That Americans care about what living costs them every day. Zohran put together an entire campaign around bringing down the cost of childcare, groceries and transportation, and he’s going to win on that.”
But Sherrill talked about the high costs of utilities on the campaign and the cost of housing.
Mike Madrid, a Latino political strategist who co-founded the Lincoln Project and has also worked for Democrats, said affordability resonates with Hispanic voters.
“AFFORDABILITY is prioritized WAY more than immigration,” Madrid said via text message. “Even the Lefty polls are showing immigration 5th among Latinos….5th!!”
Which leads to the next takeaway...
Mamdani excites – But the centrists dominate
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is fond of saying that Democrats are a coalition, not a cult. Look no further than the fact that it took him months to endorse Mamdani. And Mamdani won a majority, but barely, while Jeffries’ two former colleagues Sherrill and Spanberger, centrists who flipped red seats and ran as “National Security Democrats,” won by double digits.
And it kind of works for them. Unlike Republicans, who cost themselves numerous Senate seats and governorships in competitive states, Democrats somehow manage to balance their unruly caucus and can still compete in places where Trump wins.
Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked for Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign, told The Independent that Democrats cannot let that word “affordability” slip from their lips.
“There is no one way to be Democrat,” she said via text message. “We need people like Zohran Mamdani who can inspire and bring out new voters who usually sit out off-years. We also need leaders like Abigail Spanberger who will go into the reddest areas and convert Trump voters to support them. What they share in common is that they met voters where they are and talked about the number one issue in people’s lives: affordability.”
And for a takeaway within a takeaway: This is why after tonight, it is fair to say the Senate is in play for Democrats in 2026.
But now for some ugly truth...
Democrats have not fixed their Latino problem
OK, Democrats, that’s enough sugar. Now it’s time to take some medicine. On the surface, it looks like Democrats made inroads with Latinos after Trump cut into their margins to build a multi-racial working-class coalition. New Jersey was ground zero for that in 2024 as he flipped the heavily Hispanic Passaic County. Sherrill put Passaic back in her column. It’s still too early to see if California Hispanics have swung back to the Democrats for Proposition 50.
But Madrid warned that Democrats still have some trouble ahead. He added that Hispanic voters in New Jersey and Virginia had not turned out and California Latinos in the early counting had low turnout as well.
“That’s the big story no one ever talks about,” he texted. “Pundits think half of us are voting for Republicans and the other half is voting for Democrats. What’s really going on is half of Latinos are voting against Democrats and the other half are voting against Republicans.”
As Inside Washington has said for years, both parties get the Latino vote wrong: Republicans think Catholicism and entrepreneurship will lure Latinos forever and Democrats think they will never vote for the GOP because of the Republican Party’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.
But consider this homework for both Trump and Democrats. The Latino vote is up for grabs. Get to work now.
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