Good morning.
With just 29 days left until 3 November, First Thing is shifting its attention to one of the most important presidential votes in US history. The newsletter will return to normal once a winner is announced – and a loser concedes – but until then I’ll be briefing you on the most important election stories every morning, breaking down the latest news from the campaign trail with help from the Guardian’s team of seasoned political reporters.
If you still want to receive a daily email with the other main headlines of the day, you can sign up to the Guardian Today US here. But for now, let’s look back at one of the weirdest ever weekends in Washington politics, which ended with a (presumably still-infectious) Trump staging a drive-by for supporters that a doctor described as “insanity”.
A confusing Covid timeline
The timeline of the president’s coronavirus infection and positive test remains confused, but he was transferred from the White House to Walter Reed hospital – reportedly against his wishes – on Friday evening. There, he was given a steroid treatment proven to benefit Covid-19 patients who are having breathing difficulties – and at least two other drugs that scientists say are yet to be conclusively proven effective against the disease.
On Sunday, following conflicting reports about the seriousness of Trump’s symptoms, his doctor Sean Conley admitted the president’s oxygen levels had dipped suddenly twice in two days, but nonetheless insisted his condition was improving and he could be discharged as soon as Monday.
Back at the White House, the mood was reportedly one of panic, amid growing uncertainty about the functioning of an already dysfunctional government, as several of Trump’s aides, campaign staff and political allies also tested positive for Covid-19.
And then, on Sunday afternoon, the president briefly emerged from Walter Reed to make his surprise drive-by with at least two other people – probably Secret Service agents – riding in the same vehicle. Dr James Phillips, an attending physician at Walter Reed, called the stunt “insanity”:
Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential “drive-by” just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater.
Trump sees illness as ‘a display of unforgivable weakness’, according to his niece, Mary Trump, who told NPR that both the president and his father held the view that illness was “unacceptable”.
America has a super-spreader president who knowingly endangered his own supporters at a fundraiser in New Jersey last week, writes Moira Donegan. “To Trump, even those who fulfill his own need for constant adulation are less valuable as human beings than they are as sources of revenue.”
Biden leads by 14 points in latest poll
With the Trump campaign already in chaos this weekend, a national poll released on Sunday found the president trailing his Democratic challenger by 14 points. The survey, for NBC and the Wall Street Journal, found 53% of respondents supported Biden compared with only 39% for Trump.
Hillary Clinton enjoyed some similarly positive poll numbers during the 2016 campaign but, 29 days out from the election Biden is up by 8.1% in the Real Clear Politics national average – at 50.6% – compared with Clinton’s 5.2% lead at the same juncture in 2016. Meanwhile, the Guardian’s polls tracker still finds Biden ahead in all but one of six crucial swing states.
Trump’s voter intimidation tactics
With all the opinion polls against him, and amid reports that his own campaign officials now seriously doubt he can win re-election at the ballot box, activists fear Trump will turn instead to voter intimidation, swing state chicanery and the courts to try to secure victory against Biden. And he’s counting on help from volunteer “poll watchers” – potentially including far-right militias – as well as loyal Republican politicians in battleground states.
In other election news …
Amy Coney Barrett’s quick confirmation to the supreme court is in question after three Republican senators tested positive for Covid-19. The GOP senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, has cancelled Senate floor activities until 19 October, but insisted the committee hearings on Barrett’s confirmation would go ahead next week.
Biden has again tested negative for the coronavirus, for at least the third time since Friday, amid concerns that the Democratic nominee could have caught the disease from Trump at last week’s presidential debate.
Facebook pages promoting the possibility of a US civil war have been linked to a father-and-son duo known for publishing fake news in support of Trump and the far right, and to a social media consultant for the Trump campaign.
Stat of the day
Just three US states have reported a decline in new Covid-19 cases compared with last week, as the country hit its highest rate of new confirmed infections for almost two months. Cases are down in Texas, Missouri and South Carolina, up in 21 other states and holding steady in the remaining 26.
We wish we had written …
Robin Wright’s potted history of presidential illnesses and how they’ve altered the course of history, in the New Yorker, and Matthew Algeo’s explanation as to why presidential physicians rarely report the whole truth about those illnesses, in the Atlantic.
Don’t miss this
The pandemic now personally affecting the president has already touched the lives of millions of Americans. And, as Michael Sainato reports, it has exacerbated the existing opioids crisis, by forcing the closure of addiction treatment centres across the US.
View from the right
For Miranda Devine, writing in the New York Post, Trump’s personal “battle” with Covid-19 does not reflect the recklessness of his response to the pandemic, but his “bravery” in confronting the virus head-on:
For political advantage, Democrats have tried to keep Americans scared, depressed and under house arrest, while blaming the president for every Covid death. Sensible Americans reject this perverse framing of the pandemic.
Last Thing: ‘Trump confuses personal worth with net worth’
Tony Schwartz has long regretted his role in Trump’s rise, as the ghostwriter of his bestselling book The Art of the Deal. Recent evidence of Trump’s business failures, revealed in his tax returns, are “the ultimate unmasking of the emperor with no clothes,” Schwartz told David Smith.
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