Nicola Sturgeon has warned of “a potential tsunami of infections” as the Omicron variant of COVID-19 takes hold, saying it is showing “perhaps the fastest exponential growth we’ve seen in the pandemic so far”.
The First Minister backed yesterday’s appeal from Public Health Scotland to defer Christmas parties, and announced that from tomorrow, all household contacts of any confirmed COVID case will need to isolate for 10 days – regardless of vaccine status or returning a negative PCR test.
She was speaking at a special COVID briefing this lunchtime, and added that “we can’t rule out further measures” as the situation develops in the coming days.
Ms Sturgeon said: “We face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the Omicron variant.
"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be starting to experience a potential tsunami of infections.
“As of 5pm yesterday there were 110 confirmed cases – 10 days ago we reported nine.
“Confirmed cases through genomic sequencing represent the tip of the iceberg and shouldn’t be looked as a true indicator of prevalence; we estimate the doubling time is between two and three days and we expect it to overtake Delta as the dominant strain within days.
“It matters because Omicron has a much higher reproduction number (R number) and transmissibility than Delta.
"The R number for Scotland will possibly rise above two and we expect to see a rapid rise in cases.”
She said: “Omicron is a very concerning development for Scotland, the UK and the world.
“I want to set this out not to try to scare people but to provide the context for the difficult decisions which all governments may need to take in days to come; the Scottish Government will be considering our next steps very carefully.
“There’s an absolutely crucial point we all need to understand – even if a smaller proportion overall require hospital treatment, a small percentage of a bigger number will still result in a massive number of cases who need hospital care and those infections will put massive strain on the NHS and the number of people needing to isolate.”
Ms Sturgeon announced the tightened rules on isolation for household contacts, adding that other contacts of confirmed COVID cases will need to isolate until receiving a negative PCR result.
She noted that infection and isolation has impacted “many staff at an A&E in Lanarkshire” and dozens of ScotRail services, and said of the appeal to defer work parties: “This isn’t easy advice to hear, but there’s a significant risk with Omicron and we’re already seeing the reality with lots of events and parties becoming super spreaders.
“If these are work events there’s a risk to the ability of the workplace to operate, and the bigger the event the more those risks are very real.
“The public health advice, which I have no alternative but to agree with, is that we should all think a bit more carefully about unnecessary contact, especially in crowded places, and it would be sensible to defer work parties.”
The First Minister continued: “We know from past experience that early action is often needed when dealing with this virus; we can’t rule out further measures.”
She re-emphasised the importance of vaccination and current measures including wearing face masks and carrying out regular lateral flow tests.
Ms Sturgeon said: “If you’re going to meet other people, test yourself and stress the importance to the people you’re meeting of them doing the same – do this even if you’re going Christmas shopping.
“We face a really challenging period ahead and what I’ve set out is grim to hear, but vaccination means we’re in a better position than last year and we know the things we can do to make a difference.”
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