First Minister Mark Drakeford said Welsh Government will consider whether lockdown can be relaxed at the next review but spelt out what needed to happen.
The First Minister today announced that weekly rolling cases per 100,000 had now fallen to under 400 - from a high of over 700 in December.
But the national average remains in the range for Alert Level 4 - with a figure under 300 part of the criteria to move to Alert Level 3.
Level 3 would allow all shops to reopen and hospitality to trade under strict rules, like a ban on alcohol.
Other criteria include the level of pressure on the NHS and there are currently 2,806 patients with Covid in Welsh hospitals - compared to around 2,000 a month ago.
The next review takes place on January 29 and it is hoped that by then case numbers and hospitalisation levels will continue to fall over the next two weeks - potentially to a level where an easing in the rules is possible.
Mr Drakeford said they would consider this "if things head in the right direction".
He said: "Things are improving but we would have to be certain that that improvement was reliable and sustainable in order for us to begin journey of listing restrictions.
"We want to do that as soon as it is safe to do so but it will have to be safe."
Business leaders have called for additional support for locked down companies as closures drag on.
Ben Francis, FSB Wales Policy Chair, said: “It seems clear that businesses will require funding support for longer than was originally anticipated if they are to survive this troubling period.
"Welsh Government should urgently give clarity on what additional funding will be made available to support businesses beyond this next three week period to allow them to plan."
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