The New Orleans Saints have are resting during their bye week, and it happens to fall at the exact midpoint of the 2019 regular season. Saints fans have seen plenty of exciting football during the first eight games, watching their team overcome challenges ranging from a temporary loss of franchise quarterback Drew Brees to a variety of tough offenses led by explosive passers and creative play-callers. Miraculously, the Saints have leaped over each of those hurdles to take a commanding 7-1 lead on the NFC South, and now they’ll have Brees back for the second leg of the season.
But which plays have made the greatest impact? The offense, defense, and special teams units have each done their part to help win games, but the best tool available for objectively grading plays would be Expected Points Added (EPA). This analytics tool measures each play in the NFL against plays that have happened in similar circumstances before it, coming up with a score that suggests how many points teams are likely to get out of it.
So we took those EPA values and ran them against the Expected Points Before (EPB) numbers to best reflect the impact of each play’s outcome. Here’s what the math came up with to rank the top-10 Saints plays from the first half of their season. Which plays do you think were deserving of a spot?
Honorable Mention: Week 1 vs. Texans
Wil Lutz is good from 58 yards away
EPA Difference: +0.72
So, here’s where the emotions of competition come into conflict with the detached perspective of analytics. Lutz’s 58-yard try won the Saints’ season-opener after Brees and Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson traded some big hits in the game’s final minutes. But the EPB for this play (2.28) suggests NFL teams are usually able to score from this range, though obviously it’s difficult for a kicker to keep a cool head in such circumstances. But it’s a great footnote in Saints history and a key part of this season’s story, and well worth remembering.
No. 10: Week 4 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott pressured, picked off by Saints on last-second Hail Mary
EPA Difference: +3.07
The Saints took an unconventional approach in their end-of-game sequence against Prescott and the Cowboys, pressuring him often and capping off the final Dallas possession with a blitz from C.J. Gardner-Johnson out of the slot. The unexpected pass rusher forced Prescott to throw his far-flung Hail Mary attempt short of the goal-line, and into the hands of Saints free safety Marcus Williams. It was a huge moment for the Saints and particularly their defense; they haven’t let off the gas since.
No. 9: Week 2 at Los Angeles Rams
Trey Hendrickson gets a sack-fumble, Cameron Jordan almost gets a TD
EPA Difference: +3.3
It’s frustrating that this play didn’t count for a full seven points, because Hendrickson and Jordan definitely put the effort in to earn it. Hendrickson beat his blocker and struck Rams quarterback Jared Goff as he wound up to throw, creating a fumble which Jordan recovered and hustled 89 yards for what should have been a touchdown. But an over-eager official whistled the play dead too soon, taking points off the board for New Orleans. The Saints offense, with Teddy Bridgewater rushed into the game after Brees exited wtih an injury, later turned the ball over on downs before halftime.
No. 8: Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
Teddy Bridgewater, Michael Thomas score on a clutch 4th-and-goal
EPA Difference: +3.45
The Saints made a daring decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line midway through the third quarter. The call functioned as a short screen pass to Thomas with blockers in front of him, paving the way for him to leap up and secure the pass before falling into the end zone. If the Saints had failed to score here they would have given the ball to Seattle, but effective blocks from tight end Josh Hill and wide receiver Austin Carr helped Thomas hit paydirt.
No. 7: Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
Alvin Kamara threads the needle for a catch-and-run touchdown
EPA Difference: +3.9
Kamara had himself a day against the Seahawks, with Seattle coach Pete Carroll remarking after the game that he had underestimated the Saints’ spark plug. Kamara burned all eleven Seahawks defenders on the field on his bob-and-weave touchdown score, following his blockers and shedding a few tackles on the 29-yard screen play. This play extended New Orleans’ lead before halftime, rushing Seattle into an ill-advised sequence in which their offense traveled 65 yards in two plays, but mismanaged the clock and didn’t score any points of their own.
No. 6: Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Latavius Murray rumbles into and through the Texans defense
EPA Difference: +3.97
It took a little while for the Tay Train to build up some steam, but the signs were there early. Murray provided the Saints with a much-needed spark against Houston in the season-opener on this 30-yard touchdown run, scoring their first touchdown of the year to help open the second half. Murray found his running lane and shot into the open field, hitting the seam to sprint between several Texans defenders for six points. It’s exactly how you want every run play to be executed.
No. 5: Week 7 at Chicago Bears
Ted Ginn Jr. gets behind the Bears secondary for a big gain
EPA Difference: +4.12
The Saints tried several times to dial up a deep look for Ginn against Chicago, but the Bears defense initially played it well. That broke down early in the third quarter when Ginn found room to run between three trailing Bears defenders, though they were able to keep him out of the end zone. It set up Murray to fight his way into the end zone from three yards out, extending the Saints’ lead out of Chicago’s grasp to help open up the second half.
No. 4: Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Teddy Bridgewater strikes Ted Ginn Jr. for a touchdown
EPA Difference: +4.16
The Bridgewater-to-Ginn connection wasn’t an immediate success, but the Saints kept plugging away at it until both players got on the same page. That diligence paid off against Tampa Bay, when the Saints came out of the halftime break firing on all cylinders. Bridgewater stepped up into the pocket to find Ginn streaking through the Buccaneers secondary for a wide-open touchdown pass, arching the pass from 33 yards out.
No. 3: Week 7 at Chicago Bears
Vonn Bell creates a TFL, forces and recovers his own fumble
EPA Difference: +4.31
It’s not enough for Bell to correctly diagnose the play, shed a chip block, and drop the ball-carrier for a loss of yards. He also jarred the ball loose and recovered it for a change of position. The officials on-hand whistled the play dead well before Bell took off for the end zone (again) but the end result set the Saints offense up at Chicago’s own 25-yard line. Bridgewater connected with tight end Josh Hill for a 7-yard touchdown pass just a few plays later.
No. 2: Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Deonte Harris’s 53-yard touchdown return
EPA Difference: +4.56
It took some time for the Saints offense to get going without Brees calling the shots, so the early weeks with Bridgewater under center required some help from the defense and special teams units. Harris, the electric rookie punt returner, was happy to oblige. He liked the look the Seahawks coverage team gave him, and chose to field the punt from midfield despite the pressure raining down on him. The rookie was able to find a seam and streak towards the end zone, evading a few tackles along the way.
No. 1: Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Eli Apple forces a fumble, Vonn Bell recovers and scores
EPA Difference: +6.51
This was a wild play from start to finish. It began with a long sprint by Seahawks running back Chris Carson to dash through the Saints defense, but two defensive backs swung things back in their favor. Apple tackled Carson from behind and punched the football out of his grasp as they went to the ground, putting Bell in position to grab it and run back 33 yards for a score. It was a big win for the Saints defense, who took advantage of great field position set up by a booming punt from Thomas Morstead.
