Bears third-year QB can still be a success, but matching Patrick Mahomes — or justifying his draft status — is asking too much at this point
Two games into Mitch Trubisky’s second season in Matt Nagy’s offense, it’s too early to condemn the third-year quarterback after a slow start. But it’s about time to lower the bar.
Just as Trubisky skeptics have to stop looking for a better option — the Bears aren’t going there — Trubisky believers of any degree would be well-advised to stop thinking of Trubisky as the No. 2 pick in the draft. He ain’t that.
You can’t discount the possibility that the struggling Bears catch fire, but for now it looks like this will be a season-long battle against regression. Comparing Trubisky to the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has become unreasonable. Elite quarterbacks make their coaches look like geniuses. At this point, Trubisky needs a genius to make him look like a quarterback.
Nagy would be doing well just to get to that point. Trubisky has been a starter in Nagy’s offense for 16 games — a full regular season. His two starts this year should be among his best, but instead are among his worst. His 62.1 rating against the Packers in the season opener ranks 15th among his 16 starts in Nagy’s offense. His 70.0 rating against the Broncos ranks 12th.
It’s true that Trubisky also started slowly last season, when he was hot-and-cold against the Packers (77.2 rating) and Seahawks (83.0). But that was Year 1. This is Year 2. He should be better, not worse.
And likewise, the argument that Trubisky has faced tougher defenses in Weeks 1-2 this year rings a bit hollow in Year 2 — a reminder that Trubisky’s Pro Bowl season of 2018 was built on success against bad defenses. His five most-efficient games were against teams that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in defensive passer rating — the Buccaneers (32nd), Dolphins (18th), Lions (30th), Packers (28th) and 49ers (31st). In four games against the three defenses in the top 10 last season — the Bills, Vikings and Patriots, Trubisky’s average rating was 73.4.
At this point, it doesn’t appear much has changed. Trubisky needs the wind at his back, with all the pieces perfectly in place, to succeed. A difference-making quarterback needs just one open receiver and he can find him. Trubisky is struggling to not only find the weakness in the defense, but take advantage of it when he does.
Alex Smith looks more and more like an apt model. A former No. 1 pick who spent his early years being not Aaron Rodgers, Smith became a moderately efficient quarterback on playoff teams under Andy Reid, Doug Pederson and Nagy in Kansas City — ranking 14th, 13th, 10th and 16th in passer rating in his first four seasons with the Chiefs. It wasn’t until Year 5 that Smith blossomed — throwing for 4,042 yards and leading the NFL in passer rating at 104.7. Year 5.
Right now, Trubisky would need a pogo stick to clear the bar where Mahomes is setting it. But lower it a bit, and Trubisky still has a chance to be a long-term success with the Bears.
2. Eddy Piñeiro had a great moment Sunday, but it’s a little too early to anoint him the heir to Robbie Gould after a big game at Empower Field at Mile High. Kicking field goals at Mile High is like hitting a baseball at Coors Field.
Greater challenges await Piñeiro — avoiding a letdown after the high of a game-winning 53-yard field goal and kicking at Soldier Field among them. Cody Parkey, by the way, was 4-for-4 on field goals and 5-for-5 on PATs at this point in 2018. It’s a long season.
3. Piñeiro’s 53-yard field goal was the Bears’ longest last-minute game-winning field goal since Paul Edinger kicked a 54-yarder with two seconds left in regulation to beat the Lions 23-20 at the Pontiac Silverdome in 2000.
Piñeiro’s kick was the first time the Bears have turned defeat into victory in the final seconds since Gould’s 49-yarder beat Khalil Mack and the Raiders 22-20 on Oct. 4, 2015, at Soldier Field. And it was the first time it was done in walk-off fashion since Gould’s 41-yard field goal beat the Panthers 23-22 on Oct. 28, 2012, at Soldier Field.
4. In the wild celebration on the field after Piñeiro’s kick, Bears linebacker Khalil Mack sought out beleaguered Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles, who had four holding penalties. Only one of those penalties was for holding Mack.
“He gave me a big hug after the game and told me, ‘Keep you head up. Let’s get together this offseason,’’’ Bolles said. “I give him mad credit. When you’re going against a guy like that, those are games that can change your whole life. You can put yourself in a situation where you can take care of your family for a long time.
“I feel like I did a lot of good things. I feel like I did block him and move him along, but there were times that we were going at it, and that’s what’s going to happen. With him giving me a hug … he said I was a good football player. I believe I’m a good football player … and I’m really grateful for his respect.”
5. Give Vic Fangio credit for going for the win after Joe Flacco’s touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders with 31 seconds left. It was only the second time in the Broncos franchise’s 60-year history they went for a two-point conversion to win in the final two minutes. The other time was in 2008, when Jay Cutler threw a two-point conversion pass to Eddie Royal to beat the Chargers 39-38.
6. The Bears did not allow a sack of Trubisky and rushed for 153 yards (5.3 average) against the Broncos. But the offensive line, while much improved over the opening performance against the Packers, still has a lot of room for improvement.
Running backs David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis combined for 81 yards on 25 carries (3.2 average). Ten of their carries were for one yard or less and 15 were for three yards or less.
“I thought the offensive line did a really good job in pass protection,” Nagy said. “In the run game, there were … some mental mistakes that we correct. But what we need to do is fix it now. We can’t be making mental mistakes in Weeks 9-10-11. That stuff needs to be fixed now. If that happens, instead of a four-yard run we get a nine- or 10-yard run. That’s what I’m looking for.”
7. The offense has been a huge disappointment, with nary a glimpse of progress that was anticipated or a hint of an awakening. But Nagy is unfazed by the slow start. The Bears are averaging 263.5 yards (4.4 yards per play) and 9.5 points through two games. That’s fairly similar to a slow start last season.
“Fortunately for us we have a pretty good defense — we’re able to work though that,” Nagy said. “We feel good with where we’re at. It just comes down to more rhythm and keep trusting one another and keep fighting through it. Eventually, it’ll crack. And when it does, I think it’s going to be pretty good.”
8. The Bears couldn’t have asked for a much better early schedule — three very winnable road games against the Broncos, Redskins and Raiders (in London instead of the dreaded Oakland-Alameda County Stadium) and the two toughest pre-bye games at home, against the Packers and Vikings. Anything less than 4-1 would be a disappointment.
Now the football gods seem to be in their favor. Saints quarterback Drew Brees — who had missed one game for injury in 19 NFL seasons — is unlikely to play against the Bears on Oct. 20 at Soldier Field after suffering a thumb injury against the Rams on Sunday that required surgery. If the Bears continue to falter in the first half, it’s their own fault.
9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week Award: Ravens linebacker Pernell McPhee shared a sack of Kyler Murray and had two tackles-for-loss in a 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. McPhee played 40-of-60 defensive snaps.
10. Bear-ometer: 9-7 — at Redskins (W); vs. Vikings (L); vs. Raiders in London (W); vs. Saints (W); vs. Chargers (W); at Eagles (L); vs. Lions (W); at Rams (L); vs. Giants (W); at Lions (W); vs. Cowboys (W); at Packers (L); vs. Chiefs (L); at Vikings (L).
