A look at the big picture. In 28 weeks and five games time, England begin their World Cup campaign against Fiji at Twickenham. If they are still around six weeks later to contest the final Stuart Lancaster will be a hero, no doubt a knighthood on the way. The demands of a World Cup on home soil will have been met and, no doubt, so will the bottom line.
Getting to the final would be good. Getting to the semi-finals and he’s on less firm foundations. Lasting only as far as the quarter-finals and unless England go down fighting, things get more difficult. The recent contract extension is one thing; seeing it through quite another.
The point being that England will have to show the consistency that is at present beyond them, not on the evidence of Cardiff a month ago, but when set against last Sunday’s performance in Dublin. Let me explain.
In my terms, Lancaster is 90% there. He got 60% right when he swept aside the culture that created the 2011 World Cup car crash, setting his terms for players wanting to play for England and ending the Test careers of others. He earns another 30% for his selections since grabbing the reins at the start of the 2012 Six Nations; the majority, bar a bit of short-termism last autumn, strategically sound.
So far so good, and that 90% is probably enough to win all four pool matches – Australia included – bar one; Wales. However, here things start to get difficult. To progress further, probably past the quarter-finals, demands another 5%. For the sake of argument, let’s call it finesse. And this is where England are struggling.
It is probably not just Lancaster’s fault. He is head coach – call him the director of rugby, really – and looking to find that X-factor in others.
This doesn’t just apply at Test level. Directors of rugby aren’t necessarily the best at supplying it but around them they are looking to put in place others who might. It could be the coaching staff, or one element of the coaching staff, an inspirational captain, or possibly a player. It can come from experience; if you’ve been around the block a few times it helps because having been burned once, you tend to anticipate when trouble is brewing.
It also helps to be lucky but as the veteran golfer Gary Player is often quoted as saying: “The harder he practises the luckier he gets. Really you make your own luck.”
Listen to the words coming out of the England camp since last Sunday and you don’t hear otherwise. England were out-coached and it wasn’t just because Joe Schmidt had Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray following his script on the field. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact Schmidt was winning a Ranfurly Shield with Bay of Plenty (their first) in 2004, while his assistant, Les Kiss, has been successful for even longer, giving South Africa a watertight defence as long ago as 2001.
Between them they have packed trophy cupboards, whereas England’s coaches – Lancaster, Graham Rowntree, Andy Farrell and Mike Catt – are, to some extent, learning on the job and with a team who are collectively young.
Mind you, it doesn’t help when for whatever reason – and they are several and various – England go 10 points down in next to no time against Wales, a try (and it could have been two) behind against Italy, and six points down in eight minutes against Ireland. There are also issues such as discipline and when and how to use replacements. Why select Danny Cipriani and then not use him against either Wales or Ireland, especially in the Ireland game when the match cried out for someone to produce something different?
As I say, it’s not just up to Lancaster to find that extra 5%. However, England will need it in the pool stage against Wales, almost certainly in the quarter-finals, and for sure if England are to progress further. And that leaves someone only the games against Scotland and France in the Six Nations and three warmup matches in which to strike gold.
