A fractional increase in support for the Tories at the general election will bring an abrupt end to the career of Britain's highest paid guitar tuner, who is defending a majority of just 189. But there are signs that the Tories have a fight on their hands in the prosperous Northamptonshire seat.
Private telephone polling by Labour, which realises the symbolism of the fight in the former Tory stronghold, shows that the two parties are on virtually the same level of support as 1997. This places Mr Sawford at just over 43%, marginally ahead of his Tory rival, Philip Hollobone, on just over 42%.
Such results will send a shiver down the spine of Mr Hollobone, who should snatch Kettering back without lifting a finger on a swing of just 0.15%.
Roger Freeman, the former cabinet minister who held Kettering with a 12,187 majority in 1992, only conceded defeat in 1997 after four recounts. Tory fears will be compounded by signs that the Liberal Democrats, whose candidate Roger Aron polled 10.7% last time, may vote tactically to support Labour.
"The idea that Labour can hold on to Kettering should be absurd, but it isn't," says an increasingly confident Mr Sawford. "This is going to be a very tight fight, but it ain't over in Kettering by any means."
In common with scores of Labour MPs in marginal seats, Mr Sawford has been given a free run by the party's whips to spend most of his time canvassing in Kettering, a former Labour stronghold which switched to the Tories in 1979 when the steel-producing town of Corby was removed from the constituency.
Officially every vote is up for grabs, but in private Labour will write off the western side of the constituency, towards Daventry, a sparsely populated rural area which is overwhelmingly Tory. Instead, the party will be concentrating its efforts on the eastern, urban side of the constituency around Kettering and the small "A6 towns" of Desborough, Burton Latimer and Rothwell. As a supporter of the leftwing Campaign group of MPs, Mr Sawford is an unlikely figure to woo comfortable voters. He has never taken New Labour to heart and believes that the government weakened public services by sticking to the Tory spending limits for its first two years in office. His campaign literature pointedly refers to the Labour party with no mention of New Labour.
But Mr Sawford, 50, has impeccable local credentials which will stand him in good stead. Born and raised in the constituency, he served on the town council for 20 years until his election as an MP. He is one of the few MPs who wears shoes made in his constituency - a smart pair of black lace-up shoes bought from the Cheaney's factory shop in Desborough.
With his roots in such a Conservative area, Mr Sawford is enough of a realist to know that Gordon Brown's devotion to prudence will play well in his constituency. " The average mortgage is down £1,000 in parts of Kettering which shows that we've killed off the idea that Labour can't run the economy," he says. Such sound management of the economy is denting Tory support in areas of the constituency which should be plastered in blue. On the Ise estate, one of the largest private housing developments in Europe which sprouted up on a picturesque greenfield site on the edge of Kettering in the 1970s, there is little enthusiasm for the Tories.
John Bird, 51, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher who voted Labour in 1997, is not yet ready for a change. "Tony Blair is a bit flash, but I think we should give him another shot," Mr Bird said. "My wife works in our local school and she says that it is noticeable how much more money is being put into education."
Another admirer of Lady Thatcher, who voted Conservative in 1997, is adamant that she will not support the Tories this time. Jabbing her finger, Rita Paterson, a pensioner, said: "I will not vote Conservative. Who are their leaders? Where are they going? I will probably abstain, although I like Gordon Brown. He had the sense to realise that he knows nothing about money, so he left it all to the Bank of England to work out."
Their remarks showed grudging support for Labour in Kettering, where voters are turned off by what they see as the government's metropolitan arrogance. Debbie West, a hairdresser who voted Labour in 1997, is unsure how she is going to vote, even though she has benefited from the minimum wage.
"I have not got that much faith in the government because they have not done all they said they would to improve schools and hospitals," she said. "Tony Blair is remote and arrogant, unlike William Hague who comes across as a people's person."
Mr Hollobone, the quietly spoken Tory candidate, has the unenviable task of persuading the likes of Ms West to put their faith in Mr Hague. A fervent Eurosceptic, and a committed "never" man on the single currency, the 36-year-old former Territorial Army officer is attempting to tailor his campaign to local concerns.
From the Tories' headquarters in the centre of Kettering, Mr Hollobone is drumming up support by sending out thousands of questionnaires which ask voters what issues worry them. The top three issues are an unpopular new traffic system in Kettering, law and order, and the health service. "This is a national campaign with a very local flavour," Mr Hollobone said. "The common themes that are emerging are people's deep fear of crime and of anti-social behaviour."
Labour will be concerned to hear that some of the most critical responses for the government came from a survey of the Grange estate in Kettering, a solid Labour area, where there were serious fears about crime. "We say to voters that you have paid the taxes, so where are the police?"
This is a far cry from Mr Hague's controversial "foreign land" speech, indicating that Tories in marginal seats have quietly decided that they should tack to the middle ground.
Mr Hollobone says little about his hardline stance on Europe, although this may change if Barry Mahoney, the United Kingdom Independence Party candidate, makes waves. The Referendum Party secured 2.7% of the vote in 1997.
Adopting the cautious approach that served Labour well in 1997, Mr Hollobone insists that he is not complacent and is conducting his campaign as if he were attempting to overcome a 10,000 Labour majority. However, he points out that the Tories have increased the number of councillors on Kettering borough council from 6 to 18 since 1997.
Whether this will be enough to ensure a comfortable berth for the Oxford graduate at Westminster is debatable. "What a shambles the Tories are, they don't stand a chance until they start to look like a government," one ex-Tory voter moaned.
