The 2020 free agent quarterback class is shaping up to be the most memorable in recent NFL history.
With current legends such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers poised to hit the market, and younger starts such as Dak Prescott and Teddy Bridgewater potentially becoming available as well, there could be some major quarterbacks in new uniforms next season.
As we stressed a few days ago when we underwent this exercise with the draft quarterbacks, the schematic fit is critical when it comes to a quarterback’s success. There is a phrase I like to use when the notion of a “system quarterback” comes up in discussion: “All quarterbacks are system quarterbacks, but some quarterbacks are more system quarterbacks than others.” (Apologies to George Orwell).
But it is true. Every quarterback has a scheme or an offense that is best suited to their traits. Some quarterbacks, however, can transcend systems and would be successful almost anywhere. Aaron Rodgers, for example. Patrick Mahomes is another example. But even Mahomes might now be the Madden coverboy and current Super Bowl MVP if he were playing in a more traditional offense that did not play to his strengths.
With that said, these free agents have the ability to do some comparison shopping of their own, unlike the incoming rookies. Given that, what are some of the best fits for the free agent quarterbacks?
Aside, of course, from their current homes.
Dak Prescott: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is largely expected that the Dallas Cowboys are going to find a way to bring Prescott back into the fold, whether by using the franchise tag on their current QB or working out a long-term deal.
However, should Prescott find himself on his way out of town, there would be a number of teams lining up for his services. Despite being a fourth-round selection, Prescott has shown the ability to create outside of the pocket and off-structure, and has vastly outplayed his draft position over his time in the league.
The fit here in Tampa Bay under Bruce Arians makes sense for a number of reasons. First, there would be a high level of schematic familiarity. You look at the playbooks that Prescott has been working from the past few seasons and there is a great deal of overlap between what he was running in Dallas, and what he would be running in Tampa Bay.
Under head coach Jason Garrett and his first offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, Prescott was running an offense heavily influenced by Air Coryell concepts. Lots of vertical concepts down the field, lots of three-level reads to one side of the formation such as flood or sail, with a backside route to use as bait for the free safety, and designed shot plays to stress the defense vertically. That fits precisely with what Arians runs. Another way to measure this is statistically, via Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) from NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Last season Prescott’s passes and an IAY of 9.3 yards, sixth-most in the NFL. Only Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen had a higher average. Prescott, as Arians might say, was “riskin’ it.”
Secondly, keeping Prescott in such a system plays to his strengths as a quarterback. Prescott is a good downfield thrower, and is also very dangerous in scramble drill situations when the play breaks down and he can create outside of the pocket. Putting him into an offense, such as a more West Coast system, where the ball is designed to get out quickly to receivers in space, reduces the opportunities for Prescott to take advantage of this ability. It would neutralize him in a way, and the job of a coach is to put his or her players in position where they can thrive. Hamstringing him would not make sense.
Now, as I wrote in the scheme fit piece for the draft quarterbacks, I have been wrong on an Arians pairing before. Once more, I will hedge my bets by including another potential landing spot for the Kangol-wearing quarterback guru. But if I were Arians, I’d at least put in a call to Prescott once free agency hits.
Drew Brees: Las Vegas Raiders
Now obviously, expectations are also high that Brees returns to New Orleans. Brees himself confirmed as such on Thursday morning during an appearance on “The Greg Hill Show” on WEEI in Boston, saying that “I don’t care what the offer would be or what the situation might be, I am Who Dat Nation for life.”
Seems pretty concrete.
But since speculation is fun (and after all, it is just the beginning of March) what would be a potential fit for Brees outside of the Saints?
When thinking about such a landing spot, it is important to focus first on how Brees wins as a passer. His strengths at this point in his career are what they have been virtually his entire career: His processing speed and his deadly accuracy.
Brees is a super-computer on the field, who knows exactly what he is getting from the defense on any given snap and consequently what his best read or match-up is once the ball is in play. Watch any of his games and you will see a skillful surgeon at work, carving up a defense as they try and keep up with what he is reading and throwing.
This ability to diagnose and decipher what a defense is doing enables him to get the ball out of his hands quicker than almost anyone in the NFL. Last season Brees averaged an incredible 2.57 seconds from snap to throw, as calculated by NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Only Andy Dalton was faster, clocking in at 2.51 seconds. As a defensive pass rush you just cannot get home to the quarterback when the ball is coming out that quickly with any level of consistency.
Finally, there is his accuracy. Sure, completion percentage is one way to measure that, and Brees led the league with a completion percentage of 74.3%. But thankfully we have other ways of highlighting just how on-point passers are in today’s NFL. Next Gen Stats also tracks “Expected Completion Percentage,” (xCOMP) which uses a passer’s “Completion Probability” on a given play to determine what the completion percentage is expected to be. For those wondering, “Completion Probability” is defined as “probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.”
Last season, Brees’ xCOMP was 68%, meaning that his actual completion percentage of 74.3% was an increase of 6.3 over what he was expected to do. That…is accuracy. Only Ryan Tannehill’s increase of 8 was higher. For reference here are some notable numbers on the other end of the scale: Dwayne Haskins (-4.6), Josh Allen (-3.7), Jared Goff (-3.6) and yes Tom Brady (-3.1).
Putting all these traits together, you have a passer who is supremely accurate with the football, who gets the ball out of his hands quickly, and who carves up the defense with his mind. Who would like… that guy?
Jon Gruden would love that guy.
It makes sense, given that Sean Payton is a Gruden disciple and both offenses are rooted in West Coast philosophy. If you look at their playbooks, you will see a ton of the same designs and concepts. Brees could drop into a Raiders huddle right now and be ready to roll, and there would be minimal learning curve for him.
Of course, it is a pipe dream. Brees told us so on Thursday. But the NFL off-season is time for fans to dream, and the idea of Brees and Gruden together is somewhat heavenly.
Teddy Bridgewater: Carolina Panthers
Now given that Brees is, as he declared, “Who Dat Nation for life,” that would mean his current backup might be looking for a new team. Bridgewater’s return from a horrific knee injury that almost ended his career has been inspirational to watch, as has been his role in the Saints’ locker room the past few seasons.
Beyond that, when pressed into action this season when Brees suffered a thumb injury, Bridgewater performed well. He led the Saints to five victories in his five starts (cue the “QB WINZ” crowd) but ran Payton’s offense extremely well. He got the ball out on time and in rhythm, took advantage of the running backs in the passing game, and generally made the right decisions with the football.
Could a potential reunion be in the offing?
Prior to being the passing game coordinator for the LSU Tigers, new Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady was an offensive assistant with the Saints for two seasons. Brady’s offense is heavily influenced by Payton’s system, with some more run/pass option elements incorporated into the playbook. Bridgewater’s first season in New Orleans was the 2018 campaign, so this would be a reunion between the two.
Besides the schematic familiarity, there is also the issue of the talent around him. You can see why (beyond the “Rise of Burrow”) that Brady was an enticing option for Carolina. Putting a running back like Christian McCaffrey into such an offense gives the Panthers a number of ways to attack defenses in both the running and the passing game. Of course there are the basic RPO designs that we all know and love, where Bridgewater would meet McCaffrey at the mesh point and read the linebacker, and if the LB crashes down on the potential run he would pull and throw to Curtis Samuel on a slant or strike route.
But there are also the third-level RPOs that Brady will be installing, where you can get more vertical in the passing game while still putting defenders into conflict. These are all designs that Bridgewater can run and be extremely effective at executing.
Now certainly the Panthers currently have a full quarterback room. Cam Newton is under contract for this season, they drafted Will Grier as season ago, and Kyle Allen showed promise at times a year ago when he was pressed into action. But consider this: Newton has more of a Coryell background given his time under coaches like Mike Shula, Norv Turner and Scott Turner. Brady’s offense might not be the best schematic fit for Newton, who is more of a vertical-suited passer. Should the Panthers decide to make a change in their QB room – and not draft a passer – Bridgewater makes sense from a schematic perspective.
Ryan Tannehill: New England Patriots
This one might take some convincing. So I’ll make my case and then see if I’m allowed to return home to Waltham anytime soon (Go Hawks!)
As some who grew up in the Boston area, who grew up a Patriots fan, who hosts a Patriots podcast, who lives with Patriots fans (although my daughter took a shine to the San Francisco 49ers this season) I get asked the Brady question all the time.
I don’t know, okay? I don’t know where Brady is going next year. I still think he returns to New England, but I do not know.
I also think that if Brady leaves town the quarterback who is the likely favorite to replace him is already on their roster: Jarrett Stidham. The Patriots have been impressed with his progress from rookie mini-camp to last year, and should Brady move on my expectation would be that the organization sees what they have in Stidham before anything else.
But if they were to entertain a free agent quarterback, Tannehill would be a good fit for them.
Why? It begins with accuracy. The New England system puts a premium on putting the ball where it needs to be. Of course, all offenses do this, but the Patriots rely heavily on match-ups and yardage after the catch, and it is hard to generate YAC if receivers are twisting or adjusting to poorly-placed throws.
Remember what we said a few moments ago, about xCOMP? It was Tannehill who had the biggest jump in 2019 from his completion percentage to his xCOMP. Tannehill’s 2019 competion percentage was 70.3. His xCOMP was 62.2. That jump of 8.1 was the highest in the league. Tannehill puts the ball where it needs to be.
Another thing that the Patriots stress in their offense is decision-making. Not making mistakes with the football. Tannehill threw six interceptions last season but in preparation for the Wild Card round last year I went back and studied all six of them.
One was a throw on fourth down with under two minutes left against Denver, when he stepped in to replace an ineffective Marcus Mariota. The Titans were trailing 16-0, and he tried to make something happen.
One was an interception against the Los Angeles Chargers when he was hit as he was pulling the trigger, and the ball was intercepted.
One was a post route against Carolina in Week 9, where he missed it slightly high, the pass was tipped and intercepted.
One was another interception against the Panthers, his second of the game. He tried to throw a seam route against a two-deep coverage to his slot receiver and left it too far inside, and it was intercepted. This was comes down to poor placement than anything else.
His other two interceptions? Both passes that were deflected and intercepted.
The point? Tannehill was not making a ton of bad decisions last season.
Finally, there is this to consider: The direction of the Patriots offense. Of course, part of this trend might be due to what the team feels about Brady, but we all recall during their Super Bowl run two seasons ago how they became a heavy 21-personnel team, working off play-action and trying to run the football with Sony Michel behind James Develin.
That fits exactly with what Tannehill excelled at last season. Working off play-action and attacking the defense when they sold out against stopping Derrick Henry. After all, how did Tannehill fare on play-action? According to Pro Football Focus charting, his completion percentage increased from 67.5% on non-play-action plays to 76.7% on play-action designs, and his quarterback rating jumped similarly from 104.5 to 143.3.
Tannehill seems ideal for where New England is trending as an offense.
Marcus Mariota: Chicago Bears
Whether the Titans retain Tannehill or not, it would seem that Marcus Mariota’s time in Tennessee has come to an end. The former second-overall selection never quite lived up to the potential he showed while winning a Heisman Trophy at Oregon, and needs to restart his career with another franchise.
Now the fit in Chicago perhaps made more sense a few weeks ago, before the Bears let go of Mark Helfrich, who was Mariota’s college coach back in Oregon. Even without Helfrich in place, bringing Mariota to the Windy City makes sense for two critical reasons.
First up is the quarterback situation in Chicago. After two seasons with Matt Nagy, it seems that the Mitchell Trubisky experiment is coming to an end. Trubisky continues to struggle as a passer, specifically with the decision-making aspects of playing the position but also with his accuracy. The Bears at the very least need to bring in someone to compete with Trubisky, whether a rookie (Jake Fromm was suggested here a few days ago) or a veteran.
Second is this: Who Mariota is as a quarterback and how that would fit in Nagy’s system. When Mariota was a prospect, Eric Stoner, who used to write for the Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio, wrote a piece titled “Marcus Mariota: The Task-Oriented QB.” In it, Stoner theorized that Mariota was good at working through the tasks put in front of him on a given play by his coach. Working through the recipe, if you will.
This is a concept I expounded upon over at the RSP this summer when I talked about the idea of quarterbacks being either “Bakers or Chefs.” The idea is basically the same. Some quarterbacks are bakers, and they are great at following the directions step by step. If, however, they try and get creative, they struggle. Or they are so set in checking off the boxes that they miss on opportunities to create. Kirk Cousins was the baker example that I used.
Other quarterbacks, like say a Patrick Mahomes, are chefs. They are willing to create, and sometimes they might get burned, other times what they end up concocting is something incredible.
Nagy’s offense badly needs a baker right now. Someone who will just work through the reads and check off the boxes and make the right decisions with the football. Trubisky’s difficulties in this area has hamstrung Nagy’s offense, and held the team back to the point where they might miss out on a potential Super Bowl window. Nagy has tried different things with his quarterback but he cannot get the offense to a point where they can be effective enough to complement what has been a very good to great defense.
Mariota (for many of the same reasons I argued for Fromm to Chicago) can give the Bears that. A competent, task-oriented baker at the quarterback position who might not deliver on splash plays, but can do enough to keep the offense operating at a sufficient level. Sexy? Absolutely not. Worth a huge free agent contract? Probably not, given Chicago’s cap situation.
An upgrade? Yes.
Philip Rivers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Again, I hedge my Arians-related bets with a second option for the bespectacled QB guru.
If Tampa Bay moves on from Jameis Winston (more on him in a moment) and decides to draft a rookie quarterback to build around, there is a chance that inexperienced passer might not be ready to start Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season. They might want to secure a veteran passer to serve as the bridge from their current situation to the quarterback of the future.
That passer could be Rivers.
Rivers has traditionally been a solid deep passer, which would make him a fit in Arians’ downfield-based offense. Last season Rivers had an IAY of 8.6 yards per attempt, with was tied with Patrick Mahomes. His numbers a season ago on throws downfield (defined as throws more than 20 yards) were not exactly earth-shattering, as Rivers threw nine interceptions on such throws in 2019. (By comparison, Jameis Winston threw seven).
But 2019 was a down year for Rivers overall. In 2018, when he led the Chargers back to the playoffs, Rivers was more impressive when he pushed the football downfield. That year he threw for seven touchdowns on throws 20+ yards downfield (against just five interceptions) and on downfield throws his quarterback rating was 90.7.
It is also important to remember how Rivers started his career, playing under Marty Schottenheimer. While many associate the elder Schottenheimer with the idea of “Marty Ball,” which is a ball-control, run-heavy offense, this system was rooted in the Coryell offense when it came to throwing the football. While Rivers has played for a number of different offensive coordinators, playing under Arians would get him back to his roots as a passer.
With a move to Tampa Bay, Rivers could close out his career in a system that fit his skills, under a head coach who likes a more aggressive-minded quarterback at the helm, and close to home (Rivers declared back in January that the family was moving to Florida to be “closer to home.”). This is also a path down which Arians has walked previously in his career. While in Arizona he acquired Carson Palmer at the end of his playing days, and the two enjoyed success together out in the desert. So Arians has gone the veteran route before.
Of course, such a move would require finding a new home for Winston, so…
Jameis Winston: Los Angeles Chargers
Could a flip of the script be in the works, with Rivers coming east and Winston headed west?
It is possible.
The more we study quarterbacks, the more it seems that QBs often just “are who they are.” We like to think that quarterbacks can develop and season in the NFL, but too many times the players we saw on film during their college careers are the quarterbacks they end up being in the NFL.
Take Trubisky for example.
Trubisky’s problems as a quarterback today, mainly with decision-making and experiencing “vapor lock” in the pocket, are things that we saw on film with him back when he was at the University of North Carolina. Sure, we thought that in the right offense and with the right coaching it would get fixed, but Trubisky is now who he was in college.
The same could be said for Winston. Last season might have been the quintessential Winston experience. 33 touchdown passes, but 30 interceptions. Winston at Florida State was a quarterback who trusted both his arm, and those around him, and as such was willing to challenge windows and coverages that other quarterbacks would shy away from.
Now perhaps Arians has tired of that, but that does not mean Winston should be without a spot next season. With the Chargers moving on from Rivers, where they are going to be schematically would be a suitable situation for Winston to begin a second act.
As we wrote the other day regarding the ideal scheme fit for Jordan Love, the Chargers have been historically an offense rooted in Coryell concepts. After all, Don Coryell and the Chargers are forever linked. Last year Los Angeles began their season with Ken Whisenhunt as their offensive coordinator, a play-caller with a system rooted in both Coryell and West Coast elements. Their new offensive coordinator, Shane Steichen, began his career under Rob Chudzinski, another Coryell disciple.
While Arians may have tired of Winston – and some of his comments this season seem to indicate that is the case – Winston showed that he can run a downfield attack last season. Winston’s adjusted completion percentage on downfield throws last season, according to Pro Football Focus, was 44.4%. That was ninth-best in the league. His NFL quarterback rating of 97.1 on downfield throws was 11th best in the league.
Moving to the Chargers would keep Winston in a downfield scheme, which he is best suited to run given his skill-set and aggression as a passer. Steichen’s job would be to dial back that risk-taking nature a bit, and if he is able to accomplish that, Winston could enjoy a solid second act.
Tom Brady: Indianapolis Colts
Now I really will not be welcome in my hometown.
Again, I think many of the quarterbacks in this piece return to their current team. Brees for sure. Tannehill and Prescott also. I would put Brady on that list too, as someone who returns to his 2019 stomping grounds. But with rumors swirling of awkward phone calls and video of Brady and Julian Edelman face-timing with Mike Vrabel at the Carrier Dome, the door is certainly open to Brady finding a new home.
Speaking of domes… or at least stadiums with a retractable roof.
Think about Brady the quarterback. How he wins, where he excels. He wins now, as he has often throughout his career, with his mind. Similar to Brees, Brady excels at diagnosing and deciphering what the defense is doing, and getting the ball out to the right receiver on time and giving him a chance to pick up yardage after the catch.
If you also watch the Patriots’ offense of the past few seasons, you will see the ways they catered to where he is in his career. A continued reliance on play-action passing. The usage of heavy packages such as their 21-personnel package a year ago, or even this season when they were forced to use linebacker Elandon Roberts as a fullback. An emphasis on getting the ball out of his hands quickly to receivers in space.
That fits right with what Frank Reich is calling for his quarterbacks in Indianapolis.
Over his time with the Colts, with both Andrew Luck and Jacoby Brissett, Reich’s West Coast system has helped his quarterbacks through both play-design and creative usage of personnel. In 2018, for example, Reich used both 12 and even 13 offensive personnel in the passing game, with great effectiveness. That season, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Colts threw out of 12 personnel 88 times, completing 61 passes for a Yards per Attempt of 8.7, ten touchdowns (against two interceptions) and with a passer rating of 124.5. Out of 13 personnel, the Colts attempted 19 passes, completed 12, for a YPA of 10.4 and a passer rating of 111.1. One of my favorite designs that season was this four verticals concept that Reich dialed up out of 13 personnel (volume up if you want to watch this video breakdown):
Beyond that, we all know what a West Coast system stresses: Accuracy in the short and intermediate areas of the field, getting the ball out quickly, making the right decisions with the football, and reading a defense as fast as possible.
For the same reasons Brees would be a fit in Las Vegas under Gruden, Brady would be a fit in Indianapolis.
There are also two additional reasons why this might be attractive to Brady. First, the chance to play indoors. While Peyton Manning and Brees have put up impressive numbers through their careers, both have spent a good deal of time playing in the sterilized atmosphere of a home indoor stadium. Brady, however, has spent his entire career playing outdoors in Foxborough. Getting away from New England winters for a season or two probably sounds comforting.
Finally, think of the above image. Do you think the idea of winning a Super Bowl in Indianapolis sounds good to Brady, the ultimate competitor? Doing it in the same uniform his old rival Manning wore? Something tells me it does…
