The more we study and evaluate prospects, the more we in the media come to a rather uncomfortable truth: Despite all the time we spend watching tape and breaking quarterbacks down and debating traits and skill-sets, none of it matters.
Why?
Because what matters more to a potential NFL prospect, especially at the quarterback position, is the scheme fit and landing spot.
Take the last two Most Valuable Players. Sure, there were some who believed Patrick Mahomes could be a great NFL quarterback, but is Mahomes reaching his level of play under a Jeff Fisher? Or Lamar Jackson. He also had believers, but he needed the right organization to buy into what he brings to the table as a quarterback.
Landing spot and scheme fit matter.
Looking at some of the prospects in this draft, where are the best landing spots for them?
Joe Burrow: Cincinnati Bengals
Let’s get the obvious selection out of the way first.
Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals with the first overall selection makes too much sense. Almost to the point that if you pitched this as a movie, studio executives might call it a bit “over the top.” A hometown kid comes back to Ohio to resurrect a franchise that badly needs saving. Along the way he helps raise money for a downtrodden area of Ohio while collecting his Heisman Trophy.
But the “Rise of Burrow” is real, and why he fits with the Bengals is a reason why.
Last summer when everyone, myself included, was studying the potential draft quarterbacks Burrow was certainly on the watch list. I was perhaps more hopeful than others that Burrow could develop into an intriguing prospect, as I highlighted in this piece for the Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio. As I wrote back in July, “[d]igging into his film a bit more uncovers flashes of what you want to see from a young quarterback, and what NFL scouts are anxious to discover.”
While anticipation throws over the middle were something Burrow was showing a year ago, this past season he demonstrated three things critical to his NFL fit: Pocket presence, ball placement and processing speed. This season, Burrow showed that he could handle pockets breaking down around him while still extending plays, he could deliver on almost every throw with tremendous ball placement, and he attacked defenses as well with his mind as he did his physical traits.
In addition, under Joe Brady the LSU passing game evolved as well. During Burrow’s 2018 campaign, the Tigers relied on a heavy amount of maximum protection concepts in the passing game. The numbers were pointed out by Neil Hornsby from Pro Football Focus:
On an overwhelming majority of LSU’s passing plays in 2019, Burrow was in effect the sixth man in protection.
Aside from quarterback, offensive line is a critical piece the Bengals need to upgrade in 2020. Even if Jonah Williams lives up to expectations at left tackle and Trey Hopkins shows he was worth his recent contract extension, there are still holes that need patching. With the OL a question mark, a quarterback with a proven track record of pocket management, quick decision-making and the ability to handle things when protection breaks down – or he is the sixth man in the protection scheme – makes a great deal of sense.
Finally, consider Zac Taylor’s system. Given his background with Sean McVay, the Bengals implement a lot of quicker passing concepts that attack the defense and create space. Spacing concepts, West Coast concepts, all designs that will be very familiar to Burrow given what LSU was running last season. Mix in some A.J. Green over the top, and now you’re cooking with gas as an offense.
Tua Tagovailoa: Carolina Panthers
If Burrow cannot benefit from the passing game coordinator who aided him in the rise to the top of the quarterback board, perhaps the QB that Burrow supplanted there can.
The health status of Tua Tagovailoa was one of the dominant storylines of the combine last week. Anytime the Alabama quarterback moved, members of the media and perhaps even some NFL scouts were at the ready with their phones, recording his gait and then analyzing it for evidence of a limp or any lingering effects from his hip and ankle injuries.
Provided his medical evaluations check out, Tagovailoa is a very solid prospect between the lines. His quick release, accuracy and ability to throw defenders to space is very impressive. In addition, despite the history of lower body injuries he is also a very athletic quarterback, who can extend plays with his legs and break defenses down with his feet when those opportunities arise.
Tagovailoa’s strengths as a quarterback mesh well with what Brady does schematically. Given his time in New Orleans under Sean Payton, it should come as no surprise that Brady’s offense last year in LSU was filled with West Coast elements. In addition, Brady worked in run/pass option elements that worked to stress defenses from sideline-to-sideline, and create opportunities for LSU’s receivers such as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase to pull in throws with space to work after the catch.
These are elements that Steve Sarkisian brought to Alabama when he took over as the offensive coordinator for the Crimson Tide. For a great look at how Sarkisian incorporates RPO structures into his offenses, you can check out this six-minute video from Coaches Insider.
Tagovailoa’s experience with these designs, plus his quick thinking and snap release, make him a perfect fit for what we anticipate Brady’s NFL offense to be.
Justin Herbert: Miami Dolphins
Certainly in the wake of the “Rise of Burrow,” the expectations have been that the Miami Dolphins would take Tagovailoa at some point in the first round, either with their pick at five, or by trading up to get the Alabama quarterback.
But with some recent moves the Dolphins have made along the coaching staff, along with what Herbert does best as a quarterback, if the Oregon product is going to be in the best position to be successful in the NFL, a spot down in South Beach might make the most sense.
Let’s talk about the pros and cons of Herbert’s game. At the outside he is a quarterback with a good to elite arm, who understands leverage in the passing game extremely well. Take, for example, this back shoulder throw he put on film against the University of California from his 2018 season:
Oregon runs a switch verticals concept along the left sideline, and Herbert sees that the defender on the boundary route has inside leverage. So the quarterback executes a back shoulder throw, more than 40 yards downfield, and puts it right on the money with velocity.
That is Herbert at his best.
What makes Herbert a perhaps difficult evaluation is that the Oregon offense was not built to highlight the professional prospects of its quarterbacks. It was designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands to its playmakers as quickly as possible, and often in space. Watch Herbert and you will study a game filled with bubble and smoke screens, and not a ton of opportunities to examine how he can attack the middle of the field or make full-field reads.
Now consider the Dolphins’ new head coach: Chan Gailey.
Gailey was one of the first coaches to infuse his offense with a spread look, similar to what the Ducks have been running for years. Gailey’s offenses have been known to attack defenses by stretching them horizontally, attacking outside of the numbers and picking opportunities to hit the defense downfield. Conceptually, this fits extremely well with what Herbert has been running the past few seasons. Such an offense would ease his transition to the NFL nicely.
Finally, the Dolphins have indicated that they would like to inject some athleticism into the quarterback position. Herbert also brings that to the table, which he displayed both on film and at the combine.
Weeks ago Tagovailoa seemed like the obvious choice for the Dolphins, but with the hire of Gailey and what Herbert does best, perhaps this is the right landing spot.
Jacob Eason: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let me get something out of the way up front.
I have been trying to predict a Bruce Arians/Draft QB marriage almost as lond as I have been in the football writing game. My first attempt was to pair Arians with Cardale Jones, as I thought that style of offense would fit best with what Jones brought to the table. It did not come to fruition.
Then it was 2017, and the quarterback I thought would work best under Arians and his “no risk it no biscuit” philosophy was Patrick Mahomes. That was something that Arians perhaps considered, given what he told the media on Tuesday of last week in response to a question from our own Doug Farrar: “His (pre-draft) interview wias up there with Andrew Luck, in terms of knowing what the hell he was doing. It’s no shock to me that he’s great.”
Perhaps the third time is a charm (although I am going to have a Plan B for Arians in a moment).
Like Herbert, Eason also brings athleticism and a big arm to the table as a prospect. I was excited to watch his throwing session at the combine, as I thought it would be an opportunity for him to highlight the powerful arm that scouts covet. While he missed on some of his earlier throws, he seemed to settle in when the routes started to push the vertical passing game.
That is where his fit with Arians comes into play.
With an offensive philosophy rooted in the Air Coryell school of thought, Arians looks to create one-on-one opportunities for receivers downfield while still giving his quarterback options to attack the defense in other areas of the field.
For example, many teams have a variation of “H-Post” in their offensive playbook. But as this article from USA Football illustrates, Arians tweaked the design to attack Cover-4 coverages with the post route in the middle of the field, while still giving his quarterback options underneath should the defense adjust at the snap.
Eason, unlike some of the other quarterbacks in this class, has shown a willingness to attack the middle of the field on a more consistent basis. He is adept at looking off single-high safeties and has the confidence in his arm to attack between the hashmarks. In a system like what Arians runs, he could be effective very early in his career.
Jordan Love: Los Angeles Chargers
Among this crop of quarterback prospects, Utah State’s Jordan Love might be one of the more polarizing. For those who are believers, they point to the powerful arm, the athleticism, and the impressive 2018 tape and say that his set of skills and traits can translate to the NFL.
For those who harbor their doubts, they point to his 2019 film, his 17 “learning experiences” as he described his interceptions both in Mobile during the Senior Bowl and out in Indianapolis during the combine, and wonder if he’ll be able to make the transition at all.
In fact, Love’s game against LSU this season, down in Death Valley, is a perfect microcosim of his 2019 campagin. He flashed some impressive downfield throws in that game, including this post route to a tight end early that really jumps out at you:
Love makes this throw from a crowded pocket and puts it right on the money, but the pass is dropped.
But then later in the game, the interceptions mount up, and he leaves town with three more “learning experiences” on his resume.
Regardless of which camp you find yourself in, the fact remains that Love probably needs a very good fit and development situation to achieve his potential as a professional passer. Offensive system is going to play a critical role in that potential growth, and the Chargers might provide the best opportunity for him.
Los Angeles began their 2019 season with Ken Whisenhunt as their offensive coordinator. Whisenhunt has spent a number of seasons in the NFL and his offense took on various forms, but at its core it was known for a blend of Coryell concepts with West Coast elements. Lots of crossing routs underneath, some deep shots over the top, and heavy usage of 3×1 alignments, often in a Y-Iso alignment putting the tight end along on one side of the formation.
When Anthony Lynn made the decision to fire Whisenhunt last season, the Chargers promoted Shane Steichen, who was previously their quarterbacks coach, to interim offensive coordinator. The organization is keeping him in that role for the season ahead. He has spent most of his professional career with the Chargers, but cut his teeth under Rob Chudzinski as an offensive quality control coach.
Under Steichen last season, the Chargers showed more balance in their run/pass ratio than they had under Whisenhunt, but they also showed a continued willingness to push the ball downfield in the passing game, as you might expect from a new OC with a background in Chudzinski’s Coryell type offenses.
That is almost ideal for love. He can use his big arm to make throws in the vertical passing game like the one clipped above, but the balance in the offense will not ask him to do a ton when he sees the field as a young NFL passer. Love needs the right developmental situation to flourish in the league, and while Steichen might not have the track record of developing quarterbacks yet, his scheme could put him and Love on the right path together.
Jake Fromm: Chicago Bears
Speaking of polarizing prospects…
The Georgia Bulldog did not have an ideal time out in Indianapolis, at least when it comes to what we in the media can see and observe. His throwing session highlighted one of the concerns evaluators have with him – a lack of upper-level arm talent – and his workout did not illustrate that Fromm can be the most athletic of quarterbacks when staring down the Von Millers of the world.
But there is a great phrase among NFL scouts and evaluators, one taught to me by Dan Hatman, the Director of the Scouting Academy. Hatman, who won a Super Bowl ring with the New York Giants as a scout, now looks to teach the next generation of NFL scouts how to evaluate players. One of the first lessons Hatman instills in his students is one passed on to him by Dave Gettleman: “Don’t tell me what [the player] can’t do. Tell me what he can do.”
Here is what Fromm can do as a quarterback. He can take charge of an offense at the line of scrimmage, adjust protections and get the offense into good looks and out of bad ones. He can put the football where it needs to be in the short- and intermediate-areas of the field, and he can make the right decisions with the football quickly and get it out of his hands to his targets, taking full advantage of the offensive designs called by his offensive coordinator.
Now does that seem to you like something that is critically missing from the Chicago Bears’ offense?
As someone who spent the past two seasons chronicling the trials and tribulations of Mitchell Trubisky for Pro Football Weekly, I can tell you with absolute certainty that it is. The main thing holding the Bears’ offense back last season was a failure of Trubisky to grow beyond what he was in college: An athletic quarterback who can make the right read and decision when everything is put on a plate for him pre-snap, but someone who struggles when the pre-snap picture changes.
As a result of this, Matt Nagy’s offense has become stagnant, because let’s face it, you can only run mirrored curl/flat so many times before the defense starts to figure out what you are doing.
Fromm could step in and give the Bears’ offense what it needs at the position. Chicago fans, given my Twitter mentions, seem to be more excited about Anthony Gordon and his upside (we will get to him in a moment) but from Fromm’s perspective, Chicago is an ideal landing spot.
Jalen Hurts: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I said I would be doubling-down on a pick for Arians, and here is that Plan B.
Let’s posit for a moment that Arians decides that for whatever reason (LASIK, 33 touchdown passes, whatever) that Jameis Winston has earned another shot at Tampa Bay’s quarterback next season. So rather than address the position early, as many expect, they look elsewhere with their pick at 14 overall and think about addressing quarterback later. A more developmental type who might fit with where Arians and his offense is currently, but who might also fit with where the game is going in terms of a conceptual revolution.
Hurts could be precisely that type of player.
In terms of what Hurts can do, we know about his athleticism. Many have tried to force a comparison to Lamar Jackson, but the two players are vastly different quarterbacks. Where Jackson wants to beat you with a quick release as a passer and by making you miss as a runner, Hurts is more deliberate with his throwing motion, but also is willing to take people on with the football in his hands.
I first had this idea of Hurts in an Arians offense down in Mobile during the Senior Bowl. This was my first exposure to the Oklahoma/Alabama passer in person, and I was entranced by his ability to put touch and accuracy on the deep ball. This was something that is noticeable on film but really stood out. Play after play of Hurts dropping throws in the bucket got my mind working.
One of the areas of his game that does need refinement is what he does in scramble drill situations. Hurts is perhaps at his best when he is forced to create in the pocket, and he does a very good job at keeping his eyes downfield to scan for targets, and in a vertical-based offense that ability would be maximized.
Also, Hurts is better at reading defenses than he might get credit for. For example, his first throw against Iowa State this season saw him take a deep shot on a post route. The defense showed him a Cover 3 (middle of the field closed) look pre-snap but rotated to a Tampa 2 (middle of the field open) look as the play began. Hurts read it perfectly and took the deep shot to split the safeties as you would expect.
Arians will love throws like that.
Now people might wonder whether Hurts has the arm to thrive in an Arians offense, but watching the evolution of his passing mechanics from this season to the combine – which sounds like a great idea for an article *glances at his editors* – you can see how his mechanics have tightened up. Gone from Indianapolis was the long, loopy delivery and in its place was a much crisper throwing motion. Improved mechanics will help with his velocity.
There. Now I’ve put two potential parings on the table for Arians this season. May the odds ever be in my favor…
Anthony Gordon: Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Gordon is a fun quarterback to watch, and even more enjoyable to talk to.
Let us start with the film. Gordon put up great numbers in Mike Leach’s Air Raid system last season, but part of the production is due to what Gordon can do with his arm, and the aggression he brings to the football field. Gordon is able to make a variety of throws off of various arm platforms, and this is something that he attributes to his baseball background. During his podium session, Derrik Klassen from Rotoworld asked Gordon about his off-platform throws, and he pointed to his background as a middle infielder:
I attribute a lot of it to baseball. I grew up a baseball player, my whole life, didn’t start playing football until my freshman year of high school. A middle infielder too, so you are a lot of the time turning double plays from real awkward angles, any way you can get it out as quick as you can. So once I started playing football I figured out pretty quickly that there’s a fine line between baseball and football but you can use your baseball background to your advantage. I’ve definitely done that. Going to junior college as well, my junior college coach always encouraged me in being able to get the ball out from a bunch of different angles, it really helps against pressure and getting the ball out quick.
Gordon’s strengths as a passer come in reading underneath coverages and attacking them based on defensive alignment and leverage. One of his favorite concepts to run, the Air Raid staple Y-Cross, gives the quarterback four different reads to choose from, from a peek at a vertical route to a number of routes working underneath. As Gordon described it to me:
I love that Y-Cross. That signature Y-Cross, it’s probably my favorite play. I think that translates to the next level. Every team pretty much has some form of Y-Cross and we read ours left to right. We start at that vertical to the sail-route to the cross to the dig. So, it’s one of my favorite plays, it was on every third-down script and it was something that we would always run. Teams knew it would be coming and we would still execute it.
As Gordon says, every team has a variation of Y-Cross in their playbook. But in Indianapolis, Gordon would get the chance to run the ideal system for him: A West Coast rooted system that plays to his strengths of reading underneath coverages, attacking leverage and getting the ball out quickly.
Frank Reich’s offense draws heavily from West Coast influences, and whether it was Andrew Luck two seasons ago or Jacoby Brissett last season, the Colts’ QBs are put in situations where they are tasked with quick reads and attacking the defense horizontally, with vertical concepts mixed into the playbook. An absolutely perfect fit for Gordon.
Cole McDonald: Philadelphia Eagles
Speaking of quarterbacks who are fun to talk to…
McDonald might have been my favorite quarterback to chat with while out in Indianapolis. The aggression as a passer and the swagger as an athlete came through during his entire podium session, even when Trevor Sikkema from The Draft Network asked him the question that was on everybody’s mind: What happened to the dreadlocks?
“Hair grows back, opportunity doesn’t.”
McDonald was the darling of the summer scouting season, when many scouts in the media (myself included) thought he flashed the potential to really climb draft boards. But his 2019 season was a roller coaster. He threw four touchdowns in the season opener against Arizona, but also threw four interceptions and found himself benched. His mechanics seemed too loopy and his decision-making was flawed.
But his ended the season on a very strong note, leading a game-winning drive against BYU in the Hawaii Bowl (more on that in a moment). But his mechanics seemed tighter by the end of the season and his decision-making was still aggressive, but not dangerously so. So I find myself believing again.
McDonald will face questions about the run-and-shoot system he comes from, but when you hear him describe it, and he did to me, you will understand how he can make the transition to the NFL. I asked him what his favorite concept to run was, and his answer is instructive:
We call it a streak read. Out of a 2×2 formation. In the run and shoot, we’re a counter-based offense so what that allows our receivers to do is to read the defense pre- and post-snap. So off of one route we have five different options depending on the coverage, whether it’s zone or man. So basically you can’t be wrong. As long as the receiver and myself are on the same page, and we’re executing at a high level and being efficient and getting the ball out quick…there’s a lot that will be going on.
The beauty of the run-and-shoot is that it has an answer for everything, like McDonald describes. Every route has multiple conversions and based on the coverage, every route will have a chance to get open provided the quarterback and the receiver are on the same page. So despite the conventional wisdom, the run-and-shoot puts a lot on the quarterback’s plate in terms of deciphering coverages and making the right reads and decisions.
That is something you see in every NFL playbook.
The fit in Philadelphia makes sense because many of Doug Pederson’s concepts, while rooted in West Coast philosophy, also task the quarterback and receivers with converting their routes based on what they see from the defense. Take their halfback read design:
Look at all the conversions for these routes, on one design.
McDonald’s background in the run-and-shoot has him ready to run an offense like this, and with his improved mechanics and prowess throwing underneath and in the short areas of the field, he would be an ideal fit for this system. But there is one more element to discuss, which is the aggression he brings to the table. Late in the season when the Eagles got more aggressive in the passing game, they had success and made their run to the playoffs. At the end of that game against BYU, on the game-winning drive, McDonald passed up a wide open shallow route on a 3rd and 1 to take a hole shot along the left sideline. I asked him about it, and here’s what he said:
You know, especially in our offense. Even on third down, fourth down, we’re gonna let it rip. We’re gonna throw where the defense tells us to throw. Like I said we’re a big counter-based offense so if they’re going to play that little out-route that we were running, I’m going to take advantage of that holeshot over the top. It doesn’t matter if it’s third and one or fourth and long. We’re gonna run our offense to the best of our ability.
That mentality would serve him well in the Eagles’ offense, given how it looked at the end of 2019.
Nate Stanley: New England Patriots
Every draft season there is a quarterback who rises up draft boards, and due to a combination of need at the position and collegiate play style, the NFL falls for him and he comes off the board earlier than expected.
Iowa’s Nate Stanley might be the 2020 version of this phenomenon.
Stanley’s 2019 game film was a bit rocky at times, particularly his game against Michigan, but if you dig through his season you will certainly find things to his playing style – and what he was asked to do as a quarterback – that are going to be attractive to NFL scouts. We often hear about the “pro style offense” during draft season, and while the idea of that is becoming less important as more spread elements work their way into the NFL, there are those that love when a QB lines up under center, executes that play-fake and then a deep drop into the pocket, and throws the deep out pattern with a minimal hitch.
This is the “deep out pattern” part of the equation:
But there is something to be said for what a college quarterback does when tasked with that deep play-action drop, and turning his back to the defense if even for a split second. I pay particular attention to those moments, because they illustrate what happens in the quarterback’s mind when he is forced to lose sight of the secondary. A lot can change in the secondary in the blink of an eye, and Stanley shows the ability to maintain his understanding of the defense and make the right decisions even when forced to take his eye off the defensive backs.
Stanley also shows the ability to move around a bit and fight in the pocket with his footwork. He is not the most athletic quarterback, but he can fight with his feet and extend plays when necessary, while keeping his eyes downfield scanning for a target.
Now…
I am not making a direct comparison, but does that sound at all like the guy who has been calling the shots for New England’s offense the past few seasons? The Patriots place an emphasis on processing speed at the decision, and Stanley checks that box. If I were coaching him, I would tell him to emulate Brady as much as possible, with his footwork in the pocket and how he extends plays with his feet and his mind.
Obviously the football world is waiting on Brady’s decision, and if he does decide to leave town New England might be forced to move on a quarterback earlier in the draft. Or roll with Jarrett Stidham. But if he returns to Foxborough, Stanley would be an intriguing option later in the draft.
Tyler Huntley: New Orleans Saints
One of the most efficient passers in college football history was not invited to the scouting combine.
But that does not mean you should sleep on him as a draft prospect.
Huntley turned in a fantastic season for Utah last year, completing 220 of 301 passes for 3,092 yards and 19 touchdowns, with just four interceptions. His efficiency mark of 177.6 was fifth-best in the nation, behind Burrow, Hurts, Justin Fields and Tanner Morgan, and stands as the 25th best number in college football history.
Where Huntley stands out as a passer is in his ability to make smart, quick decisions with the football (as reflected in those efficiency numbers) and to get the ball out of his hands quickly in the passing game while still working through his progressions. He is very adept at ruling route concepts in or out prior to the snap, which aids his decision-making process. If he sees soft coverage or a big cushion pre-snap, he is often very quick to exploit that leverage advantage.
Huntley also is very athletic, and can extend plays with his feet. When protection schemes break down in front of him or there is an unaccounted blitzer up front, Huntley can make the defense pay.
All of these traits and skills translate very well to Payton’s West Coast system.
With Drew Brees returning to the fold, Teddy Bridgewater is likely going to find a suitor during free agency. While Payton claims that Taysom Hill is their quarterback of the future, it would be wise for the Saints to at least look at a developmental quarterback behind those two. Huntley would be a great fit.
After ten years of practicing law in the Washington, DC area, Mark Schofield now dedicates his time to his first love: The game of football. The former college quarterback’s work has been featured a number of places, including The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Pro Football Weekly and the Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
