Finding Modern Comparables for MLB’s 2023 Hall of Fame Class

Scott Rolen and Fred McGriff took the long road to Cooperstown. Rolen needed six ballots to be elected by the baseball writers to the Hall of Fame. McGriff took an 0-for-10 from the writers before sailing in unanimously through the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.

The length of their journeys does not matter Sunday. All that matters is that they will be enshrined as Hall of Famers forever.

Their journeys, however, are instructive. They remind us that not all Hall of Famers are obvious. Without MVP awards and iconic status with one franchise, the popular imprimaturs of Hall of Famers, some need a deeper appreciation for how well they played the game. Between them, Rolen and McGriff played for 10 franchises—never seven full seasons in one place—and never finished in the top three in MVP voting.

Both are well deserving of the Hall.

Rolen is a Hall of Famer because he slugged, reached base, ran the bases and played defense—in short, he was an elite all-around player—at levels that rank among the very best who ever played third base. He is one of only nine third basemen with 2,000 hits and a WAR of 70 or better. Eight are in the Hall and the ninth, Adrian Beltre, will join them next year. Rolen was one of the 10 best players to ever play the position.

McGriff is a Hall of Famer because he slugged so consistently for so long. He is one of only 17 Hall-eligible players not connected to steroids who slugged .500 or better over more than 10,000 plate appearances. All 17 are now rightly in the Hall.

McGriff defined “cleanup hitter” when that term meant something. It meant the rock of a lineup. Only two men since 1900 ever started more games in the cleanup spot than McGriff: Honus Wagner and Eddie Murray. Reliable and imposing, McGriff was a manager’s dream when it came to building a lineup—unless you were the opposing manager.

In our book “The Yankee Years,” Joe Torre explained to me why he made the unorthodox move in 1996 World Series Game 5 of letting left-handed starter Andy Pettitte bat with two runners on in the top of the ninth inning when clinging to a 1–0 lead—common sense said to try to add to the lead with a pinch hitter and turn the game over to his closer, John Wetteland. Even Pettitte’s wife, Laura, watching from the stands, screamed, “What’s he doing? He’s never done this before. Andy doesn’t pitch the last inning!”

Explained Torre, “Freddie McGriff, who scared the s--- out of me, was the second hitter” due in the ninth.

McGriff received votes from all 16 members of the the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.

Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports

McGriff read the book. Ever graceful, he was humbled and honored by what Torre said. He told me it was a compliment he cherishes. The anecdote is a good window into why McGriff is not only a Hall of Famer but also why it took so long: He was far more respected by the people in uniform than by writers who cherish math over humanities.

In becoming Hall of Famers, Rolen and McGriff become benchmarks. Current and future stars who might not be obvious Hall of Famers can boost their case by measuring up to their standards. Which current third basemen are on the Hall of Fame track set by Rolen? And what current first basemen are tracking close to McGriff’s path to Cooperstown?

Let’s check the Hall of Fame Highway using age as our mile markers to see who might be following Rolen and McGriff to Cooperstown. An “X” means the player is on the Hall of Fame highway (but not in).

At Age 37: Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
Rolen	2,077	.281	.854	316	1,287	70.1
Longoria	1,918	.265	.807	342	1,153	58.9
Donaldson	1,300	.262	.849	276	805	46.6

Longoria comes up a bit short when measured against what are Rolen’s final career numbers. The gap for Donaldson is wider.

At Age 32: Nolan Arenado

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
Rolen	1,558	.283	.879	261	1,012	55.1
Arenado	1,616	.288	.879	319	1,032	53.5	X

It’s fascinating to see the similarity of these numbers. Arenado is considered by many to be a future lock for the Hall. Rolen received just 10% of the writers’ votes the first time he appeared on a ballot.

At Age 30: Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez and Matt Chapman

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
Rolen	1,300	.284	.890	231	859	47.5
Machado	1,676	.280	.830	300	904	53.9	X
Ramirez	1,254	.279	.857	206	719	43.6
Chapman	720	.243	.799	150	412	30.6

Rolen reached base at a better clip than Machado, but Machado has been more durable, has more power and also played shortstop. Ramirez comes up a bit short across the board for now. With a late start (24), Chapman has a long way to go.

At Age 29: Alex Bregman

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
Rolen	1,254	.286	.898	226	831	45.9
Bregman	907	.274	.858	153	548	32.8

The volume and power of Bregman trail Rolen through their 20s.

At Age 26: Austin Riley and Rafael Devers

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
Rolen	783	.285	.883	133	493	25.6
Riley	549	.270	.831	113	321	14.3
Devers	853	.280	.854	162	528	17.3	X

Devers gets the box checked because of his power numbers at such a young age.

Now, the first basemen compared to McGriff:

At Age 39: Joey Votto

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
McGriff	2,477	.285	.889	491	1543	53.2
Votto	2,108	.297	.926	349	1125	65	X

A different kind of hitter with less volume to his numbers, Votto’s ability to get on base (like Rolen) helps his case.

At Age 35: Paul Goldschmidt

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
McGriff	1,946	.287	.899	390	1,192	46.8
Goldschmidt	1,851	.295	.914	331	1,091	61.0	X

This exercise helps re-prove why the writers were wrong to reject McGriff 10 times. Goldschmidt has fewer hits, homers and RBI and a lower OPS than did McGriff. Goldschmidt’s defense and baserunning give him Rolen-like appeal.

At Age 33: Freddie Freeman

	H	BA	OPS	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	WAR
McGriff	1,622	.285	.902	.381	.521	339	1,007	40.0
Freeman	2,018	.299	.897	.386	.511	309	1,004	52.9	X

In this case, I added OBP and slugging to show just how similar are McGriff and Freeman at the same age.

At Age 29: Matt Olson

	H	BA	OPS	HR	RBI	WAR
McGriff	1,001	.281	.921	228	616	32.1
Olson	757	.251	.856	206	553	24.6

Olson is a tremendous player who is having a career power season this year. His best is yet to come. But through his 20s, he doesn’t measure up to McGriff.