In the end, 2022’s top quarterback was no surprise. Despite challenges from Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith — it was an exciting and slightly weird year! — Patrick Mahomes ultimately stood head and shoulders above the fray.
Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC’s top seed (albeit controversially thanks to the cancellation of Week 17’s Bills-Bengals tilt), led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns by a comfortable margin and, unsurprisingly, was the league’s most efficient quarterback in terms of advanced stats.
His adjusted expected points added per play — a measure that compares a player’s impact against what an average player historically has done in the same situation — was a robust 0.306. Essentially, he made the Chiefs a field goal better than expected every 10 dropbacks he took.
This was enough to outpace Tagovailoa, Hurts, Smith, Josh Allen and … fellow top 10 quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff? Huh. Well, like I said, exciting year. Let’s get into it.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 272 plays, or 16 per game) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
He's gonna be MVP for good reason
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.178 EPA+CPOE composite
The raw numbers, QB wins and advanced stats agree. Mahomes was the most valuable player of 2022.
2
A worthy tier of franchise quarterbacks (and Jimmy Garoppolo)
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.148 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.144
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.136
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.130
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.127
Tagovailoa was very good despite his repeated head injuries until the tail end of the season, where he regressed … then suffered another head injury. Burrow overcame a slow start (and one fewer game than his cohort) so stamp his place among the elite.
Garoppolo had his best season as a pro, albeit in only 11 games. That’s more of a Kyle Shanahan offense thing than a testament to the veteran’s abilities; rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy has a composite of 0.135 in five games since Garoppolo’s injury.
3
A surprising third tier of quarterbacks advanced stats likes more than most
7. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.115 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.113
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.109
10. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.105
11. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.105
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.101
Smith was a top five quarterback through much of the 2022 season, but he backslid late in the year — though this didn’t affect his ability to pilot the Seahawks to the postseason in a rebuilding year. Brissett’s fourth quarter turnovers made him unreliable, but he was still considerably more efficient than Deshaun Watson, who was mostly forgettable in his first six games as a Cleveland Brown following league discipline stemming from more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.”
Jones had his best year just in time to hit free agency. Expect the Giants to place the franchise tag on him while they figure out what to do with their revitalized, but still not entirely trustworthy, quarterback.
4
The guys you might trust more than the six guys in Tier 3
13. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.084 EPA+CPOE composite
14. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.082
15. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.081
16. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.081
17. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.081
18. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.074
19. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.072
20. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.068
21. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.068
22. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.061
Jackson was hampered by a weak depth chart and injury. Herbert was hampered by injuries across his lineup. Cousins had one of the most potent WR-RB combinations in the league and still regressed from 2021. Dalton and Mariota protected the ball enough to wind up here, even though neither one will be a starter in 2023.
And Aaron Rodgers was only slightly more impactful than Kenny Pickett, which, (no words, just the sound of air being sucked over clenched teeth).
5
Mistakes were made
23. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.054 EPA+CPOE composite
24. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
25. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.046
26. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.041
27. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.041
28. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.037
29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.035
This tier is roughly half young passers with something to prove in 2023 and veterans who fell off a cliff. If you’re relying on any of them next season you’d better hope you’ve got one hell of a supporting cast to fill out the depth chart.
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If starting in 2023, something has gone terribly wrong.
30. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.010 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.008
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.003
33. Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams, -0.014
No thanks.
