The past 25 years have led up to this moment.
Arizona finally broke its Elite 8 curse and is back in the Final Four.
The last time the Wildcats were here, they beat Michigan State to advance to the National Championship Game.
This time, another Big Ten program is standing in their way: The high-octane Michigan Wolverines, a team with enormous size and elite defense.
The winner of this game may very well end up as the 2026 National Champion.
Here’s my preview of what might be the best Final Four matchup in the history of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 Michigan vs No. 1 Arizona
Final Four
Saturday, April 4
5:49 pm PT, TBS
Indianapolis, IN
Those are the keys to the game for Arizona.
Michigan is a great rebounding team, but the Wildcats are elite on the glass. The Cats come into the game No. 2 nationally in rebounds per game and No. 4 overall in rebounding margin.
Getting second-chance opportunities might end up being the difference in the game.
Generating extra possessions by forcing turnovers, however, is just as important.
The Wolverines are sloppy with the ball, coming into the night No. 201 nationally in turnovers per game. And they run at a high pace. That’s a weakness that must be exploited.
If Arizona can generate TOs and get transition buckets, it will be in a stronger position to win the game.
At the same time, the Cats can’t let Michigan get hot from three. The Wolverines are No. 31 overall in three-point percentage.
If they start burying their shots from deep, Tommy Lloyd’s team will be in an uncomfortable spot.
As for the individual matchups, the most important one might be the battle between Motiejus Krivas and Aday Mara. The two bigs are essentially evenly matched.
Whichever player has the better game, on both sides of the floor, could be the deciding factor at the end of the day.
Similarly, the battle between Koa Peat and Yaxel Lendeborg is critical. The two forwards could go toe-to-toe in an all-time battle on the biggest stage.
Lendeborg may be older and more experienced, but Peat is a winner who thrives in the brightest moments.
Yet, the reason why Arizona will win is Brayden Burries.
Who is going to guard him? Nimari Burnett? The guy who averages fewer than one steal per game and commits the least amount of fouls among the UM starters?
He sounds soft.
Burnett is about to learn the type of physical basketball that Arizona plays. Burries gets downhill quickly and finishes with efficiency around the rim.
Plus, the star freshman is the best three-point shooter on the Arizona squad.
Look for Burries to exploit the matchup and take it to Burnett. If Dusty May doesn’t have an answer, the Cats should win.
The Michigan coach could bring Trey McKenney off the bench to handle the defensive assignment.
But that would be a signal that the battle is already lost, potentially resulting in Burries getting even more aggressive and confident.
It’s the type of matchup where Burries could score 25 points or more. You heard it here first.
At the same time, Ivan Kharchenkov is a bit of a wildcard. There have been too many games where Kharchenkov is a high-volume, low-efficiency shooter.
In Arizona’s two losses, the freshman went a combined 10-for-28 from the field while taking 14 shots in each contest. Both were season-highs in field goal attempts, and both ended in losses.
That’s not a coincidence. It’s a clear stat that jumps off the page and is something the Michigan coaching staff will know to exploit.
May’s game plan could be to slack off him from three and the midrange, essentially goading him into jacking up shots. If those shots aren’t falling and Kharchenkov keeps taking them, it could play directly into Michigan’s hands.
The Wolverines are also an elite shot-blocking team. They come into the matchup No. 2 in the country in blocks per game.
That means Arizona might need to have its stroke going from the midrange.
Jaden Bradley, Burries, and Peat’s efficiency from the edge of the paint and inside the arc could end up being a game-changer. If the Cats aren’t making those shots, Michigan might end up on top.
But if Arizona forces turnovers, scores in transition, and gets second-chance buckets, the Wildcats could find themselves in the National Championship Game.
