Argentina arrived at the FIFA World Cup 2026 carrying the weight of expectation that comes with being defending champions. With Lionel Messi still leading the side and memories of the unforgettable triumph in Qatar fresh in the minds of supporters, many fans believe another deep run is possible.
But one World Cup prediction model that has built a remarkable reputation over the last three tournaments has delivered a warning that Argentina supporters will not enjoy reading.
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The model, created by Joachim Klement of London-based investment bank Panmure Liberum, correctly predicted Germany's triumph in 2014, France's victory in 2018 and Argentina's success in 2022. With three correct World Cup winners in a row, it has attracted attention far beyond the financial world.
Now the same model says Argentina's reign as world champions will come to an end before the semi-finals, with Portugal ending their campaign in a blockbuster knockout clash.
FIFA World Cup model gives Lionel Messi's Argentina a strong start
Klement's forecast does not see Argentina struggling in the early stages of the tournament.
The model projects Argentina to finish among the top two teams in Group J, giving the South Americans a 91% chance of progressing from the group stage. Austria is forecast to finish second, ahead of Algeria and Jordan.
That would put Argentina comfortably into the knockout rounds and keep alive hopes of a successful title defence.
For a team packed with experience and still inspired by Lionel Messi, that part of the prediction is hardly surprising.
Yet the path becomes much tougher once the knockout matches begin.
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Lionel Messi still delivers when Argentina need him most
One of the most interesting parts of the forecast is that the model still sees Messi playing a decisive role.
Argentina are predicted to face Turkey in the round of 16. According to Klement, it will be a tighter contest than many expect.
But the report believes Argentina's greatest player will once again step up when it matters.
"A somewhat tighter match-up is Argentina vs Turkey, but even there, Messi proves he can still make a difference and score the winning goal to send Argentina through to the quarter-finals."
For Argentina fans, that line will bring back memories of the countless times Messi has rescued his country on the biggest stage.
The prediction suggests the veteran still has enough quality to carry Argentina beyond the first knockout hurdle.
Unfortunately for Argentina, that is where the good news ends.
The Cristiano Ronaldo factor for Argentina in FIFA World Cup
The quarter-final forecast produces one of the most fascinating matchups of the entire tournament.
Argentina are projected to meet Portugal in a clash featuring two football nations that still rely heavily on ageing superstars.
Klement describes the contest as a battle between the defending champions and the last remaining South American side against a Portugal team still searching for its first World Cup title.
The report contains an especially eye-catching assessment of Cristiano Ronaldo's role.
While discussing Portugal's route through the tournament, Klement writes: "If coach Roberto Martinez doesn't make the mistake to field Cristiano Ronaldo (ideally, he doesn't even nominate him for the tournament), then the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Goncalo Ramos and Bernardo Silva will make sure Portugal advances."
The forecast argues that Portugal's strength comes not from one superstar but from the depth available throughout the squad.
According to the model, that depth could prove decisive against Argentina.
Why the model predicts heartbreak for Lionel Messi's Argentina
Klement's reasoning is simple.
While Argentina continue to depend heavily on Messi, Portugal are viewed as having greater strength across the entire squad.
The report states: "The quarter-final between Argentina and Portugal pits the defending champion and last remaining South American team who still relies heavily on an ageing star against a team that never won the World Cup and still relies heavily on an ageing star. But unlike Argentina, Portugal's breadth and depth in the squad is much, much better and as long as Ronaldo gets out of the way, Portugal should win this in overtime."
In other words, the model sees Argentina remaining competitive because of Messi's influence, but ultimately falling short against a deeper and more balanced Portuguese squad.
It is a prediction that would end Argentina's hopes of becoming back-to-back world champions.
Lionel Messi's Argentina: From defending champions to FIFA World Cup quarter-final exit
If the forecast proves accurate, Argentina's tournament would end in the last eight despite a strong group-stage performance and another memorable contribution from Messi.
Portugal would then move on to the semi-finals before eventually reaching the final, according to the model.
Whether that happens remains to be seen.
Klement himself repeatedly warns readers not to treat the model as a guarantee of future results. In fact, he says anyone betting heavily on the forecast is taking a risk.
Yet football fans keep paying attention for one reason.
The model got Germany right in 2014.
It got France right in 2018.
It got Argentina right in 2022.
And now, ahead of FIFA World Cup 2026, it is predicting that Messi's quest for another World Cup title will end in heartbreak at the hands of Portugal.
Argentina FIFA World Cup 2026 Fixture
- Argentina vs. Algeria – Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at 06:30 AM IST (Kansas City Stadium)
- Argentina vs. Austria – Monday, June 22, 2026, at 10:30 PM IST (Dallas Stadium)
- Argentina vs. Jordan – Sunday, June 28, 2026, at 07:30 AM IST (Dallas Stadium)
Argentina FIFA World Cup 2026 Squad
Goalkeepers: Emiliano Martinez, Geronimo Rulli, Juan Musso
Defenders: Nahuel Molina, Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, Leonardo Balerdi, Nicolas Otamendi, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico, Facundo Medina
Midfielders: Leandro Paredes, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, Giovani Lo Celso, Exequiel Palacios, Enzo Fernandez, Valentin Barco
Forwards: Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez, Thiago Almada, Nicolas Paz, Nicolas Gonzalez, Giuliano Simeone, Jose Manuel Lopez.
