FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ The hurricane risk to the United States has sharply decreased this season, with ocean conditions becoming less favorable for the storms' formation, according to a closely watched forecast released Monday.
Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project now calls for four hurricanes this year, compared with 10 last season and a sharp reduction from the university's April forecast. The probability of a direct hit to the eastern United States stands at 22 percent, compared to the average of 31 percent.
Since hurricane season began June 1, the forecast said, the Atlantic Ocean has developed unusually cold temperatures, depriving developing hurricanes of fuel and the atmospheric instability necessary for their formation. And the likelihood has increased of an El Nino, the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that creates high-altitude winds that tear apart would-be tropical cyclones, the rotating storm systems that can strengthen into hurricanes.
"We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity," states the forecast report.
The forecast stands in sharp contrast to the university's April forecast, which called for an above-average hurricane season. But forecasts gain in reliability the closer they come to the season, so this forecast, delivered a month into hurricane season, would be more solid.
Although the latest forecast appears to deliver good news, hurricane experts inevitably point out that a single hurricane can make it the worst hurricane season ever for whatever area lies in the storm's path, no matter how "quiet" the season is otherwise. Hurricane Andrew struck in an otherwise uneventful season.
