The fertility rate for England and Wales has plummeted to a record low after falling for three consecutive years, data from the Office for National Statistics reveals, with births barely outpacing deaths.
The total fertility rate – defined as the average number of children women would expect to have across their childbearing life – stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023 and the lowest since records began in 1938.
Natural population growth has been in decline for years, with deaths expected to overtake births from 2030. But migration into England and Wales has offset an otherwise-decreasing population, which means that the population grew by around 706,000 in the year to mid-2024. The number of births last year actually increased slightly, from 591,072 to 594,677. But overall population growth meant that fertility rates still fell.
The data revealed significant variation in fertility rates across different parts of England and Wales — Luton having the highest (2.0) and City of London the lowest (0.32). But all areas have a below-stable fertility rate, when 2.1 is the level needed for the population to remain naturally stable over time.
Separate data also showed Scotland’s fertility dropped to a new low of 1.25 last year.
Though UK-wide fertility rates for last year have not yet been published, figures from the previous year reveal that they are dropping more than in any other G7 nation.
In 2023, the UK’s fertility rate was 1.44 children per woman, a 25 per cent fall since 2010. Other G7 countries, including Italy and Japan, have lower rates, but their decline has been more gradual than the UK’s.
Women in the UK are also having their first children at an older age. In 2000, the average first-time mother in England and Wales was a little over 26 years old on average. This has increased by three years, with the average woman now being over 29 when she has her first child.
In London, the average first-time mother is 31. The average age for those having a second child in the capital is 33.
Where are fertility rates the lowest?
Higher fertility areas are concentrated around Manchester, Birmingham and areas spread across southeast England. Central London authorities have some of the lowest fertility rates, hovering around one child per woman. Towards the outskirts, including Barking and Dagenham in the east, the average rate rises (1.99).
Many areas of the UK experienced a drop in fertility rates last year, with over half (185 out of 317) of local authorities facing a decline, and just one third seeing an increase.
Fertility rates in Maldon, Essex, fell from 1.59 to 1.37 in just one year. Birmingham, on the other hand, had one of the biggest rises, from 1.61 to 1.75 children per woman.
Concerns of population decline
Earlier this year, an Ipsos poll for The Independent found that four in ten couples are putting off having children, with financial pressures being a top concern.
Rates have fallen behind the European Union, which might be of concern to Reform leader Nigel Farage, whose plan, announced this week, to slash migration and fast-track deportation could exacerbate dwindling fertility rates.
In February, Mr Farage pledged he would abolish the two-child benefit cap if his party came into power, as part of a “180-degree shift” to reverse low birth rates.
There were around 568,000 deaths in England and Wales last year, meaning that the population would have scarcely grown had it not been for net migration, which added 431,000 people in the same period.
A Reform spokesperson recently admitted to Politico that drastic cuts to immigration would require boosting birth rates to avoid a “population crisis”.
“To fix that population crisis, we’re trying to encourage British people already here to have kids,” a spokesperson told the online news site last week.
