Federal election fate in hands of 'battleground state'

Coalition hopes are pinned on Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, as well as regaining other Victorian seats. (AAP PHOTOS)

Victoria will likely hold the key to Labor and Liberal fortunes on election night.

The Liberals are desperate to make up ground on Saturday in the state once dubbed the "Massachusetts of Australia" by John Howard because of its progressive leanings.

The coalition holds just 10 seats in Victoria after voters in the Melbourne seats of Kooyong, Goldstein, Chisholm and now-abolished Higgins turned on the Morrison government in 2022.

Aston then fell in a once-in-a-century by-election loss to Labor following the resignation of former frontbencher Alan Tudge.

Kooyong, held by independent Monique Ryan was among seats that turned on the coalition in 2022. (Joel Carrett/AAP PHOTOS)

Political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said at least a dozen seats across the state were held by five per cent or less following boundary changes.

"This is a real battleground state this time around," the Monash University political lecturer told AAP.

Dr Ghazarian reckons the Liberals must reclaim Kooyong, Goldstein, Chisholm and Aston to restore their previous base, while picking up at least one outer suburban seat like McEwen.

He suspects Kooyong and Goldstein, lost to teal independents Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel respectively, will be difficult to flip.

"If they can't win back Goldstein, if they can't win back Kooyong, that once former heartland of the Liberal Party, I think we can say, has deserted them," he said.

Needing 19 seats to form majority government, the Liberals have been running hard in Victoria amid collapsing support for the state Labor government.

Their campaign has tried to link Anthony Albanese with unpopular premier Jacinta Allan but Dr Ghazarian said voters generally differentiated between state and federal politics.

Labor is facing a battle on its left flank from the Greens in Wills and Macnamara, while the Liberals are under threat in Wannon from former Triple J presenter turned independent candidate Alex Dyson.

Labor hopes to steal one or both of the Liberal-held eastern Melbourne seats of Deakin and Menzies to offset any losses.

Liberal frontbencher Michael Sukkar clung on in Deakin by 0.2 per cent in 2022 but the margin has been notionally cut to 0.02 per cent, making it the most marginal seat in the nation.

"If they can't hold onto Deakin, they can't even consider winning the election," Dr Ghazarian said.