While the main focus of the election campaign has been on the House of Representatives, the makeup of the new Senate will be crucial to the success of the next government. If Labor forms government it will be hoping for a more sympathetic Senate than the current numbers, which lean to the right.
The Coalition and One Nation until recently held half the 76 Senate seats between them. Three seats are held by Jacqui Lambie, Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff, with the remaining 35 held by Labor or the Greens.
Each state has 12 senators but at most federal polls, including this one, only half are up for election (as well as two from each of the territories). The voting system means the six places on offer almost always split as three for parties of the left and three for parties of the right – although a few senators and candidates defy a simple left-right classification. It’s typically very difficult for the left or right to win four out of six, so when a 4-2 split is achieved, that makes a big difference to the balance of the Senate.
The left currently holds just four out of 12 senators in Queensland, and the Greens have a good chance of gaining a seat from the right. There is also a good chance for the Greens to gain a seat from one of the independents in South Australia.
Gains for the left beyond those two are harder to see, but if Labor has a very good night, they could create a 4-2 split in Western Australia or Tasmania. The Coalition is defending three seats in most states, and in many of those states that third seat is vulnerable; either to Labor, the Greens or a rightwing minor party.
New South Wales
Three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens were elected in 2019. Labor is defending three seats, but it seems highly likely they will lose their third to the Greens.
The Coalition vote seems to be holding up reasonably well, but if the Liberal/National vote drops far enough they could lose a seat to One Nation or the United Australia party. Whatever the result, this state will return another 3-3 split, which won’t shift the midpoint of the Senate.
Victoria
Victoria elected three Coalition senators in 2019, alongside two Labor and one Greens, and the parties are defending the same number of seats in 2022. It seems most likely that this split will be maintained.
Labor appears to be making relatively modest gains in Victoria, so there is little prospect of gaining a seat from the right. But if the Coalition’s vote drops significantly it might endanger their third seat, which could be won by a minor rightwing party or an independent such as Derryn Hinch.
Queensland
The Liberal National party is defending three seats, alongside One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and two Labor senators.
The vote for both Labor and the Greens appears to be up significantly in Queensland, which would mean there is a good chance of electing three senators from the left: two Labor and one Greens.
In that case there would be only three seats left in play for the right. The LNP should retain their first two seats, but a swing against the party will make it hard for them to defend their third candidate, Amanda Stoker. Hanson is the favourite to take that seat, but is also being challenged by the UAP founder, Clive Palmer, and the former Queensland premier Campbell Newman, running for the Liberal Democrats.
Western Australia
Western Australia elected three Liberals, two Labor and one Green in 2019, and the senators up for election have the same split.
There is some polling evidence that suggests a large swing from the Liberals to Labor, which opens up the possibility of Labor gaining a third seat without defeating the Greens senator, producing a 4-2 split in favour of the left.
South Australia
South Australia elected three Liberals, two Labor and one Green in 2019, but the cohort up for election in 2022 are quite different. It includes Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick, who both hold seats originally won by the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016.
Xenophon himself is running again and would be a good chance to regain his seat. It seems unlikely his ticket can retain both of those seats, freeing up one seat for another party.
Even if Labor is on track to win the election, it seems more likely the Greens will gain the other seat, producing a 3-2-1 split in favour of the left.
Tasmania
Jacqui Lambie regained her seat at the 2019 election, alongside two Liberals, two Labor and one Green. This year’s cohort up for election are three Liberals, two Labor and one Greens.
The Jacqui Lambie Network candidate, Tammy Tyrrell, appears to have a real chance of defeating the third Liberal candidate, Eric Abetz.
It’s also possible that Labor could win a third seat from the Liberals, as happened in 2007 and 2010.
The territories
The Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory each have two senators, who serve a three year term. Labor and the Coalition have split each territory 1-1 at every election since these seats were created.
There is no prospect of a change in the Northern Territory, where the Country Liberal party will regain the seat they lost when CLP senator Sam McMahon left the party earlier this year.
A number of independents are challenging the minister Zed Seselja for his Senate seat, with polls suggesting former Wallaby David Pocock, backed by the Climate 200 group, is the leading challenger. Pocock seems to have a real shot at winning – to pull it off, he needs to enough Labor and Greens voters, and a few Liberals, to give him their first preference.
