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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Amy Remeikis

Shorten says Labor will take climate 'emergency' seriously – as it happened

Australian election 2019: Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong and Chloe Shorten in the Bowman Hall in Blacktown, where Labor held an election rally this afternoon.
Australian election 2019: Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong and Chloe Shorten in the Bowman Hall in Blacktown, where Labor held an election rally this afternoon. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

With the campaigns on the move, we might put the blog to bed. It’s got a big day tomorrow. And an early one.

Both leaders will be on 7.30 tonight, and you can pop back here for the news take afterwards.

It looks like Queensland and Victoria are going to be pretty popular. And Ispos should have a poll out very soon, so you’ll be able to see if there has been any shift.

We are into the final countdown. It’s going to be a strange one, I think, because there doesn’t seem to be a uniform swing on. But still, not long until we find out for sure. Even if it’s not Saturday night, it will be soon after.

And then there is the Senate, which hasn’t received a lot of attention, but looks like shaping up to be a very mixed bag. But they are issues for tomorrow.

Thank you to everyone who followed along with us today. We’ll be back early tomorrow morning. As always, please, take care of you.

Updated

Speaking of the Greens, Adam Bandt has responded to Bill Shorten’s use of “emergency” in relation to climate today in his final campaign speech:

Bill, taking the climate emergency ‘seriously’ means stopping Adani, not sitting on the fence. It means phasing out coal, not saying it’s here for the foreseeable future.

And it means keeping fossil fuels in the ground, not lighting the fuse on the Beetaloo gas basin climate bomb.

I hope Scott Morrison’s out of a job on Sunday but Bill Shorten hasn’t twigged that in an emergency, rule number one is not to pour more petrol on the fire.

Updated

Richard Di Natale was also asked by Patricia Karvelas about the Rwandan refugee story:

We’ve never supported the people swap deal. The Greens have had a long campaign to shut down camps and bring people here.

We have our own processing of people. We have our own agencies that assess people for health and security reasons.

If we had done what was our moral and legal obligation and that was to treat people with some decency, to process them here, to close the inhumane, unjust brutal regime that is offshore detention, then we wouldn’t be facing this right now.

What we’d have is innocent people being settled. We have people in limbo for years and now we have this situation emerge on the eve of an election.

... Without knowing the details of the case, I can’t make any judgement about the specifics of the case. But this is where it leads when you do everything you can to treat people just terribly, without a skerrick of humanity and decency. We have kids locked up now for years, self-harming, an epidemic of mental illness … neither side, neither the Liberals nor the Labor side, are brave enough, courageous enough to say that we need a different approach. We need an [approach] that understands innocent people should be treated with care and decency.

Security checks done here in Australia. If they’re found to be genuine refugees, let them make a contribution to this country, like so many have before them.

Updated

Gilmore by Galaxy:

Karvelas moves on to the Politico Europe story broken this morning, about two Rwandans, who were suspected of murder, being resettled in Australia as part of the US-Australia refugee deal, in November, when Scott Morrison was prime minister:

PK: The PM says processes are undertaken to check and to verify the identity of those who come to Australia. Can voters conclude then that the government had knowledge of two Rwandan men charged over a massacre that were resettled then under a US refugee deal?

SB: Voters can have confidence that our national security agencies do security and character assessments in relation to those who are resettled in Australia all the time. They do them thoroughly and rigorously and we have very firm processes in place.

PK: Under the medevac legislation, during that debate, your government consistently warned murderers could enter Australia and yet these two people have entered Australia. That’s inconsistent, isn’t it, Minister?

SB: I’m not going to go to the specifics of any one case. I make the point very clearly that when people who are coming from overseas, into Australia, that there are thorough security and character checks undertaken by our national security agencies. What happened in relation to the medevac bill was creating an entirely different pathway of entry potentially into Australia.

PK: But the rhetoric matters because the rhetoric your government was using was essentially about these people being potential murderers coming to Australia and yet we know, because your government actually hasn’t disputed the facts here, that two people are in Australia now who [were] accused of murder and we resettled them?

SB: Patricia, I’m not going to the particulars of a certain case.

PK: Did we resettle them?

SB: We don’t talk about that.

PK: Why is it selectively that we don’t talk about it?

SB: It’s not selective. There is a common approach applied in terms of people coming from other countries, into Australia, around the type of character, processes and security checks that are applied by our national security agencies. Australians can have confidence at the agencies who have kept Australia safe, thwarting 15 different major terrorist incidents over the last few years, do their jobs thoroughly in relation to all these cases.

And that they ensure Australians are not at risk and … and they take every precaution that is necessary. What have we managed to do in terms of the US agreement? We’ve managed to ensure no longer are there any children held on Nauru or Manus as part of the flood of people who came from the previous Labor government. There are no children there because we’ve resettled children and families and because we’ve stopped the flow of arrivals. That’s at risk in the years to come if we have a Labor government. Labor is committed to rolling back temporary protection visas. Labor’s support in other ways for how they’d manage offshore processing appears questionable.

You saw the other day Labor talking about reopening the Malaysia [plan] or the like.

PK: But you haven’t dealt with my substantive question which is there are two people in Australia who have been accused of murder who are being resettled under a secret deal?

SB: You’re making that claim in relation to individuals.

PK: You’re saying it’s not true?

SB: I’m making sure what I do is make it clear to your viewers that anybody who comes to Australia goes through thorough character and security checks in relation to their entry into Australia and that we have the utmost faith in relation to our national security agencies in the way they undertake those duties.

PK: Even though they were accused of murder, our agencies determined they were safe to be resettled into Australia?

SB: Our agencies do a thorough job. They’ve thwarted 15 major terrorist incidents over the last few years.

PK: Don’t you think Australians ...

SB: In which they check individuals, their backgrounds and their eligibility for settlement in Australia.

PK: Aren’t Australians entitled to get answers on this case?

SB: Patricia, I’m addressing the way in which these matters are handled by … and they’re handled as a government. And they’re handled as a matter of policy and policy consistency.

Updated

Simon Birmingham is fulfilling his role as Coalition campaign spokesman for one of the last times on Afternoon Briefing. Patricia Karvelas asks about the Coalition costings first up:

Question: Your costings contain an additional $1.5 billion spending cuts to the public service. Where are the job losses coming from? Which departments are you planning to cut?

Birmingham: Those identified savings are $600 million less than the departmental savings that the Labor party in their costings released last week outlined. This is essentially a standard efficiency dividend you’ve seen governments over many years apply and work with departmental secretaries to identify where the departments can find efficiencies out of what are very large and very substantial budgets that the departments have.

It’s a relatively modest spend that we’ve proposed during this campaign. An additional $1.4 billion spend in promises that have been announced through the campaign – compared with Bill Shorten, who spent some $35 billion extra over the next four years. The gap even widens further if you look over the next decade where it’s about $3.8 billion versus $112 billion of spending from the Labor party.

Question: Can you substantiate the job losses? Have you modelled how many job losses there will be in the public service? It’s quite a big figure.

SB: These savings will come, working through with departmental secretaries. They may come from reduced use of contractors or travel or other things, advertising or other things.

Unlike the Labor party, we’re not going to say specifically here or there. Because we think you can get the best outcome by working with the departmental secretaries to achieve the dividends.

PK: But it inevitably leads to job cuts?

SB: It will be less than whatever the impact of Labor’s cuts will be because they’re proposing an even deeper range of savings when it comes to the public service.

PK: But inevitably there will be job losses?

SB: I don’t concede that.

PK: A huge sum of money. There would have to be.

SB: Government spending in a whole range of other areas continues to grow. What our government has managed to achieve in our time in office is the lowest rate of spending growth of any government in 50 years. We’ve managed to contain it to a lower rate of growth which has helped get us to the point of bringing the budget back to surplus, in terms of the budget that was handed down this year for the next financial year. We’ll keep containing the spending but what we’ve done during this election campaign as well is contain our spending promises to be a mere fraction of what Bill Shorten has promised to spend through the campaign. That’s why we don’t need all of the extra taxes that he’s proposing to apply on Australians.

Updated

Michael McCormack is alive

In case this helps you decide how to spend election night.

(I will also be blogging, if that also helps)

John Howard really believes that Scott Morrison can win the election and says it is not just the usual propaganda.

Mathias Cormann is angry. But like, gentlemanly so.

Both campaigns are up and about.

Scott Morrison is preparing to leave Canberra, if he has not already.

Bill Shorten is also about to re-hit the campaign trail.

Marginal seats, get ready. My tip? Victoria and Queensland.

And for those wondering, I counted nine aspirations in Scott Morrison’s press club address and question and answer session.

Updated

Asked about the latest Australian talking head to lose their mind on national television, and declare life as we know it will be over with a Labor government, Chris Bowen says:

I’m getting a bit used to this - Terry McCrann said vote Bowen and Shorten to end the world and Kerri-Anne says vote Labor to end life as we know it. I can confirm neither of these things are in our policy documents or our costings.

I mean, to be completely honest, he didn’t rule it out ....

Updated

On the Politico Europe story, which Scott Morrison all but confirmed at the National Press Conference (although not much else), Chris Bowen says:

To be honest, I have seen social media reports. That is the full extent of my knowledge. Obviously, this needs to be thoroughly explained by the government and if there is a change of government I would expect a new government to seek urgent briefings on the situation and to get a full update and to see whether the situation has been handled promptly.

I think responsibly, just to finish, I think responsibly, that is the most we can say, given all we are aware of is basically what you are aware of.

Would Labor rethink the US deal?

Again, I think it is difficult to express a view about that, given we only know – I only know what I have seen on social media, the reports I have heard from the National Press Club. I have had no further briefings and I am not aware that anyone from the Labor party has had any further briefings about how this situation arose. I think the responsible, methodical thing to do is to say that the government should explain the situation and if it hasn’t been explained by the time, if there is a change of government on Saturday, for the new government [to] get an urgent briefing on it.

Updated

Chris Bowen:

They tell us that either the Liberal party was lying to the people of Melbourne last week when they promised the East West Link or they are lying to the people of Australia today.

East West Link is still not in their budget numbers. It is still in as a contingent liability which doesn’t hit the budget bottom line.

Which is it?

Are they billing the East West Link or are they not?

Is it in the budget or is it not?

On today’s announcement, it is not.

So they were lying to the Australian people. It is Labor who has the plan for bigger budget services, more investment in health and education and fairer taxes. Josh Frydenberg and Mathias Cormann couldn’t help themselves today releasing costings. It is their job to release the costings of their own policies.

The way it works is the treasurer gets to announce Liberal party policies. I know they don’t do it often, they don’t have many, and we get to deliver Labor party policies.

The choice is clear – alternative vision for the future, more finance for health and education, or more cuts and chaos under the Coalition today.

In this final stretch to the election, the Liberal party are reminding people how chaotic they are. They can’t even agree on a how-to-vote card. The Nationals andLiberals bickering among themselves.

If you can’t govern yourselves, as the great Bob Hawke said, you can’t govern the country. This mob can’t [govern] themselves and they are well and truly over governing the country.

Updated

Chris Bowen is responding to the Coalition’s costings announcement:

Nothing new, but more cuts and chaos … to underline the pathetic nature of this Liberal party, we had the treasurer and the finance minister release their final costings after Scott Morrison spoke*.

It was already bad enough that it was two days before the people vote. It was already bad enough that it was almost a week after the Labor party. It was already bad enough it was after the advertising blackout.

But to leave it until after the prime minister fronted the National Press Club. The costings also tell us some interesting things as well.

*tbf Labor did this as well – Bowen did not announce the costings until after Bill Shorten’s press conference.

Updated

The next seat rolled out in the Galaxy single seat poll is Higgins:

Updated

She’s ropable. Just ropable.

Oh, and Labor used No Second Prize from Jimmy Barnes to end Bill Shorten’s speech, which is the same song Labor used to end the launch.

We have had both Farnsey and Barnsey in our political discourse today, so balance achieved.

Updated

I think I missed La Trobe a bit earlier

Both Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten will be on 7.30 tonight, where they have given (separate) interviews.

While Shorten did not do the traditional press club address, he did appear on Q&A and Insiders. Morrison declined those invitations.

As predicted, the messages from the two speeches today boiled down to two clear themes.

Bill Shorten - change

Scott Morrison - don’t change.

Bill Shorten finishes with this:

I say to the women and men of Australia, vote Labor because we are the only party with the courage and the principles and the plan to take real action on climate action.

My fellow Australians, the door to a better, bolder, and more equal and exciting future stands ajar. Do we have the capacity to push through it?

The chance for a smarter, more progressive Australia is before us. The choice for Australia to be a leader in the world is ours to make and the power is in your hands.

Stop the cuts. Vote for change. Vote Labor.

End the chaos. Vote for change. Vote Labor.

Bring back the fair go. Vote for change. Vote for Labor.

Reject the habits and the fears of the past and step up to the demands and opportunities of our future.

Vote for change. Vote Labor!

And for the health of or environment, for the qualities of our lives, for the ambitions of our children, vote for change.

Vote Labor!

Thank you very much!

Shorten:

Tell commuters - tell the commuters at your railway station you’re voting Labor because we are the party of public transport, the party of quality infrastructure for the suburbs and the regions. Tell people you’re voting Labor to nourish and cherish and build the art, telling our Australian story, and saving our ABC!

... Tell people you will -- you’re voting Labor because you choose hope over fear. You choose a vision of the future over an empty threadbare scare campaign. Tell people you’re voting Labor because you want to see the most talented, experienced and passionate shadow ministry in a generation become a great Labor government.

Tell them that you’re voting Labor because you want the father of reconciliation to be in charge of Indigenous affairs and you want a

Treasurer from Smithfield, you want Albo building the roads and the rail and we want Penny Wong on the world stage.

... And tell them you’re voting Labor because you want equality for women and opportunity and education to be championed by the Deputy PrimeMinister Tanya Plibersek!

And, friends, go forth from here and tell people you’re voting Labor so you can look at your children and your grandchildren - look them in the eye - and say, “We fought for a better environment so that years from now you can tell them that you didn’t fall for the fear campaign.

You didn’t capitulate to the deniers and the delayers. Here we have a chance for you to be able to say that when the moment beckoned, when the time came and the decision was ours, this generation of Australians - this generation of parents, this generation of voters - tell them that we decided to do the responsible thing for the environment, that we did the smart thing for our economy, and we did the right thing for our future generations.

Shorten:

Tell people when you leave here you’re voting Labor to provide the funding and the staff and the services and the dignity to transform the NDIS from a noble promise into a life-changing reality for hundreds of thousands of our fellow Australians.

Tell people you’re voting to put the approximately $14 billion cut back into schools because every child..every child deserves the best start if life, including universal preschool for every 3 and 4-year-old Australian child.

Tell people you’re voting Labor to keep the doors of our universities open to working-class kids and students from the bush, to restore 150,000 apprenticeships and training places, and to rebuild public TAFE in this country.

... Tell people you’re voting Labor because you want a more independent foreign policy, speaking with our values, with an Australian accent.

A genuine partnership in the Pacific and a view of Asia that doesn’t dumb the region down to threats or customers.

Leave here today and declare that you’re voting Labor so 3 million pensioners and seniors will have their dental care covered by Medicare.

Go out into your community, tell people you’re voting Labor to not just protect Medicare, but to expand Medicare.

Because if you are battling cancer, you shouldn’t have to cash in your super or your life savings, or worry about burdening your family with a debt to pay for your treatment after you are gone. Tell people you’re voting Labor because while cancer makes you sick, in a rich and prosperous nation like Australia it should not make you poor.

Tell people that you are voting Labor because you want to restore trust in our political system with a National Integrity Commission.

Or because after 250 years of borrowing a monarch from the other side of the world, it is time for Australian head of state!

Updated

Shorten:

It is why we seek government. Not for history’s sake. And not for our own. Not for the trappings or ornamentation of office, but to build things that last, to change the nation, to write Australia larger and better.

So, friends, I say to you today - leave here with pride.

Leave here with your head up. Leave here with belief.

Leave here ready to vote for change, ready to carry the momentum into the final 48 hours.

And when you’re on the pre-poll, when you’re making those final calls, when you’re you’re handing out the Labor ticket on Saturday take every chance you get.

Tell your friends and your neighbours and your fellow citizens why you are voting for change.

Why you are voting Labor.

Go from here and tell people you’re voting Labor because you want to see working people get a pay rise, to get their Sunday penalty rates back.

Tell people you’re voting Labor because you want a million households to get an extra $2,000 per child, to help with the cost of child care.

Tell people you’re voting Labor because you believe in Closing the Gap and enshrining our First Australians in the constitution, the nation’s birth certificate.

Updated

Shorten continues:

My opponent today said, ‘This is not the time to turn back.’ Well, really? Well, I say cuts to schools and hospitals are not the way forward.

Wage stagnation and job insecurity are not the way forward. Unfairness and growing inequality are not the way forward. Extremism and racism are not the way forward.

... Chaos and division is not the way forward. Denial and delay on climate change is not the way forward.

There is only one way to get Australia heading in the right direction - vote Labor on May 18.

... Friends, Little Pattie is here with us today.

On that historic night, November night, 47 years ago, I don’t know how Pattie felt about the words that she sang or the speeches that she heard.

I don’t know if she could imagine how many of the ideas shared in this hall would then become the law of the land.

I don’t know if she could guess that the vision that was revealed that night would still be part of our contemporary national identity today.

But, friends, that’s what Labor governments do - we change the country for the better!

Updated

Shorten:

They stand with the polluters who prefer to pocket profits rather than clean up. On top of this they are doing preference deal with a billionaire who spends 10 times on what he owes his workers promoting himself.

It is clear enough who the vested interests are barracking for at this election. But for all of their money, and all of their power, and all of their sense of entitlement and all of their platforms they don’t get to decide who governs this country. And our democracy - that power - that inalienable privilege, that responsibility - belongs to you, the people of Australia.

And have no doubt about the choice that people face. There are only two possible governments of Australia contesting this election - our stable, united and talented Labor team, or a Coalition of chaos.

And when our region is transforming, when our economy is evolving, when our climate is changing, even more dramatically and more quickly than ever before, three more years of dysfunction and division will not just mean the nation’s standing still. It will mean going backwards.

Friends, the world will not wait for us. It never has. If our country is to compete and succeed in the 2020s we need a government united by purpose, not divided by chaos.

Updated

Shorten:

The history of our great movement, the story of our great nation, all of our shared struggle and success, tells us that every bit of change, every step forward, every inch of progress is hard-won, hard-fought and hard work.

And we knew - my team and I - from the moment that we rejected the tyranny of low ambition and the politics of small targets and chose instead to present a positive vision for the future, we knew the scare campaigns and the fear mongering would surely follow.

We knew all of the weight and the wealth of status quo would be deployed against us. We present Australia - our plan for a fair go for all.

Meanwhile those who profit and benefit from the current inequality, the immediate unfairness in our society, they campaign against us.

Our political opponents stand where they always have stood - against change, against progress, and are servants to the same vested interests - the big banks and big business.

The multinationals and the tax minimisers. The employers who rely upon exploitation and wages theft as a business model. They stand with those real estate agents sponsoring scare campaigns to defend their commissions.

Updated

Bill Shorten declares climate 'emergency'

There is a use of a very particular word in this part of the speech. And it is very deliberate.

Shorten:

And if you vote Labor we will deliver the change that the nation deserves from day 1 - the very first item of business at our very first

Cabinet meeting will be a new Commonwealth submission to the Fair Work Commission for a real wage increase for the working people of this country!

... The first laws that we will seek to pass will be the restoration of Sunday penalty rates for working people!

And we will pass tax cuts for 10 million working and middle-class people in this country.

We will convene Parliament to prioritise real action on climate change, expanding the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to help drive 50% renewable energy in our system.

I promise that we will send a message to the world, that when it comes to climate change Australia is back in the fight!

... It is not the Australian way to avoid and duck the hard fights. We will take this emergency seriously, and we will not just leave it to other countries or to the next generation.

We are up for real action on climate change now if we get elected on Saturday.

Shorten:

To the First Australians being excluded from the opportunities, denied the justice that the rest of us take for granted - vote for change!

To our fellow Australians, who live with profound and severe disability, and their loving, carers being failed and forgotten by the cuts to the National Disability Insurance Scheme - vote for change.

To the pensioners down on confidence, short on quality of life because they cannot afford to get their teeth fixed up, vote for change!

To the countless Australians who are sick of political infighting and instability and chaos in the government, vote for change.

And to Australians of all ages, from all walks of life, and every part of our nation, who are waiting for the politicians to finally wake up, to protect the environment, to act on climate change, vote for change.

Shorten:

Today we say to our fellow Australians who want to see their wages moving again and their penalty rates restored: vote for change.

To the people who want more hours of work but can’t find them to the people working two jobs with no safety net and no security: vote for change.

To the young people who cannot find an apprenticeship, to older Australians who cannot get a foot back in the job door because they have got too much grey in their hair: vote for change.

To the working mums who are tired of seeing the whole salary eaten up by the cost of childcare: vote for change.

To the small businesses enduring the frustration of a third-rate NBN: vote for change.

To our fellow Australians battling cancer, the ones we love in the fight of their lives paying thousands of dollars out of their own pockets for the scans and the tests because the system is not free: vote for change.

To the women fleeing family violence who cannot find a safe place for them or their children to say: vote for change.

To the nurses - to the nurses and the patients in the overcrowded underfunded emergency rooms: vote for change.

To the dairy farmers on the land getting up at 3:00am in the morning but being ripped off at the farmgate: vote for change.

Updated

Shorten continues:

When Gough’s voice rang through this grand hall in 1972, your public schools were suffering from neglect and underfunding. The price of healthcare was beyond the reach of people in need and the economy was not working for working people.

Now, think about Australia today - kids missing out in classrooms all around the nation.

People going broke, paying for their cancer treatment, pensioners who cannot afford to see a dentist, working parents are battling the rising cost of child care, workers are battling stagnant wages and growing job insecurity.

The three challenges then remain fundamental now, but there is a new challenge that the previous generation could not have imagined. I speak of the delay and denial on climate change.

... Climate change is threatening our environment, our economy and our children’s future. The problems facing our nation are real and they are growing. But we are not despondent.

We do not preach despair, we know Australia can solve these problems and, friends, we can start on May 18.

Updated

Back to the speech.

Shorten:

Once again, we put it to the men and women of Australia from this hall.

Our nation must choose - the habits and fears of the past or the demands and opportunities of the future.

The habits and fears of the past or the opportunities and the demands of the future.

This was where Australians chose the future. Universal healthcare ...

We chose universal healthcare for every Australian – launched here; access to university to working class kids was created here.

Equality for women championed a new sense of Australian identity, drawn from every culture in the world and home to the world’s oldest living culture. Articulated here.

It was here that new connections, new infrastructure, new respect for Western Sydney and the suburbs of Australia started right here.

And now we gather here with our country on a threshold of a new decade facing again the choice between the past and the future. The nation’s door to the future stands ajar and we ask the men and women of Australia to vote for change on May 18. We ask you to vote for new ideas, new equality of opportunity.

... We ask that women and men of Australia to vote for new purpose and new energy and a new decade and we ask you to vote for the new vision - the new stability, the new determination of a new Labor Government.

... Never before has your decision and your vote been more important. Never has the case for change been more clear or more urgent. Because justas Blacktown tells us the story of the change that Australia voted for back then, it is also speaks why our country should vote for change now.

Updated

Despite the $1.5bn efficiency dividend announced today, the Coalition is still claiming this is a smaller cut than what Labor is offering.

From the Coalition costings:

“A re-elected Liberal and Nationals Government will reduce departmental funding to government agencies by $600 million less than proposed by Labor under their previously announced policy costings.Labor has revealed during this election campaign that they will reduce departmental funding to government agencies by more than $2.1 billion, which in the 2019-20 financial year is equivalent to an Efficiency Dividend of 2.5 per cent.”

What are they referring to? As best I can make out they are referring to Labor’s proposal to cut from $2.6bn through a “reduction in [Australian Public Service] expenditure on contractors, consultants and travel”.

More from the Coalition:

“Labor has sought to politically frame their 2.5 per cent Efficiency Dividend imposed on Departments as something else. But Labor’s measure is clearly a $2.1 billion net reduction in overall departmental funding to Government agencies...

A re-elected Liberal and Nationals Government will maintain the Efficiency Dividend at its current level of

2 per cent for a further two years, before stepping it down to 1.5 per cent in 2021-22 and returning to the base rate of 1 per cent from 2022-23.

Through this policy, the Morrison Government will reduce total departmental expenses over the 2019-20 forward estimates period from $288.6 billion to $287.1 billion, whereas Labor would reduce departmental expenses further to $286.5 billion.”

Updated

There are a group of Labor volunteers, including a very small child who can barely be seen over his “vote for change, vote Labor” sign, standing behind him.

Anyone who watches Veep might know why I am giggling.

Updated

Bill Shorten address

Bill Shorten has begun his final speech of this election:

Women and men of Australia ... 47 years ago when an earlier Labor generation filled this marvellous hall with their hope and their passion, the door was ajar for our nation and Australians had to choose – would we hide from change? Would we turn our backs to the world?

Would we shrink to our familiar habits and submit to our old fears? Or would we cross the threshold and push open the door? Would we broaden the sweep of our national ambition?

Would we reach for something bigger and bolder, or more of the same? Would we step forward into a more confident, more modern, more self-reliant future? This was the choice then and this is the choice this week and this year and now.

Updated

Sarah Hanson-Young has been talking about this for years - but it must really, really be biting in South Australia, because Matt Canavan and Melissa Price have just committed to a review, if the Morrison government wins on Saturday (Labor had already committed to a review):

A re-elected Liberal National government will commission an independent audit of NOPSEMA’s current consideration of exploration in the Great Australian Bight.

The Liberal National Government recognises that the Great Australian Bight and the surrounding region are important to local communities, and the fishing and tourism industries. The region is known for its unique environment and deserves strong protection.

Australia has one of the safest regimes for offshore oil and gas in the world. There are very strict safety and environmental standards and the industry is overseen by Australia’s independent regulator NOPSEMA (National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority).

The Liberal National Government recognises community concerns around drilling in the Great Australian Bight and community groups are seeking further assurance of environmental protection.

The Liberal National Government will commission an independent audit, to be conducted by the Chief Scientist, to provide this additional level of assurance to the community

The independent audit will be jointly commissioned by the Minister for Resources and the Minister for the Environment. The Chief Scientist will be asked to work with NOPSEMA to assure all environmental considerations are thoroughly considered as part of the assessment process and decision making of the independent regulator. The audit will be conducted in tandem with the assessment process.

The National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) is Australia’s independent regulator for health and safety, well integrity and environmental management for offshore oil and gas activities in Commonwealth waters and in coastal waters where regulatory powers and functions have been conferred. NOPSEMA was established on 1 January 2012.

Exploratory drilling proposals will continue to be assessed by NOPSEMA, which has an independent assessment process underway under Australian law.

Who will be hit by the $1.5bn “efficiency dividend extension”? It seems like all the big departments, but there are some exemptions for agencies that police banks, the NDIS and cultural institutions.

From the Coalition’s costings:

The current temporary exemption granted to the Australian Signals Directorate and Office of National Intelligence would be made ongoing and further exemptions will apply in relation to this Efficiency Dividend extension, including for:

    • the National Disability Insurance Agency;
    • the Australian Securities and Investments Commission;
    • the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority;
    • National Collecting Institutions, including the Australian War Memorial, National Archives of Australia, National Gallery of Australia, National Library of Australia and National Museum of Australia; and
    • all agencies with an Average Staffing Level of below 200.

Updated

The questions in that costings press conference were mainly about why the Liberal party seems to be doing so badly in Victoria.

Question: If [seats fall in Victoria] do you think there should be a serious review of the Liberal party’s factionalism and infighting?

Josh Frydenberg: Look, we’re focusing on not just holding the seats that we currently hold in Victoria, but actually winning seats off the Labor party, and I point, for example, to Kate Ashmor in the seat of Macnamara and she’s fighting very hard to win that seat off the Labor party.

This election, as Mathias and I made clear, presents a very clear choice to the Australian people and to the people here in Victoria, of course, and that is a Coalition that’s committed to a stronger economy as a means of providing more jobs and guaranteeing the essential services that people expect, need and deserve, and a Labor party with $387 billion of higher taxes, that’s the bill that Australians can’t afford. You get up in the morning, he’s going to tax you more.

You go to work, he’s going to tax you more. You want to save, he’s going to tax you more. You want to invest in a property or a share portfolio, he’s going to tax you more. You want to put money into your superannuation, he’s going to tax you more. You become a retiree, he’s going to tax you more. Whichever way you look, Bill Shorten and Labor will tax you more.

Question: That’s not answering the question, though. If Victoria does look hard against the government … and there has been a lot of infighting and factionalism, certainly hasn’t helped you. Will there be a review ...

Frydenberg: With the greatest respect what I’m saying to you is we’re contesting an election this Saturday. You’re already looking beyond this Saturday. I’m looking to this Saturday, to the Morrison government being re-elected. We have a very strong plan for the people of Victoria and for the people of Australia and I have been buoyed by the response that I have had not just in my electorate, but that my colleagues have had across the state.

Mathias Cormann: And let me just - let me answer this: This election is not about us. This is not about Scott Morrison or Josh Frydenberg or Mathias Cormann or the Canberra bubble, this election is about the Australian people.

This election is about a choice between a team committed to building a stronger economy and Labor’s high-taxing agenda which will make our economy weaker. This is a choice between a team committed to give families around Australia the best possible opportunity to get ahead and the alternative which is chasing them with ever-higher taxes which would harm the economy and leave them worse off.

This is - this is about making sure that the Australian people have the government that they need to give them the best possible opportunity to get ahead.

Updated

Collingwood fans - we are everywhere. I mean, just because one hasn’t been found in the Mariana Trench, just means we haven’t gone deep enough yet.

Update on the Mark Bouris robocall, from Christopher Knaus:

Prominent businessman Mark Bouris has breached electoral laws by robo-calling voters to warn them against voting for Labor, the electoral watchdog said on Thursday.

Voters across the country received a voice message from Bouris, former host of The Apprentice, warning them not to vote Labor, because its negative gearing policy would cause house prices to plummet.

‘If Labor wins and they bring in negative gearing changes and the capital gains tax changes, house prices will fall, they’ll continue to fall at a very rapid rate,’ he warned. ‘And what’s worse our kids are going to have to pay more rent because investors are going to have to put the rent up to recoup the losses they would normally get as a tax deduction.’

The voicemail contained no authorisation, leaving voters unable to determine whether Bouris was speaking on someone else’s behalf.

The Australian Electoral Commission said the failure to include an authorisation represented a ‘technical breach of the authorisation requirements’. It said it would be contacting Bouris to remind him of his obligations.

Updated

Finance minister Mathias Cormann and treasurer Josh Frydenberg are holding a press conference to announce that the Coalition’s $1.4bn of spending has been offset by $1.5bn of savings.

What are the $1.5bn savings? It looks like the ENTIRE saving is one line item in the costings: the “efficiency dividend extension”.


So all the Coalition has revealed today is a giant, detailed list of spending commitments it has already made in the campaign, and then one line promising that cuts to the public service will pay for it all. No hidden nasties, just one very vague one.

Updated

See previous caveat et al

Josh Frydenberg and Mathias Cormann have put out this statement on the costings.

The Morrison government has maintained its commitment to responsible budget management during this election campaign and will continue to deliver a budget surplus this coming year and every year over the forward estimates and the medium term.

Additional spending on election commitments by the Coalition, beyond what was already factored into the 2019-20 budget, has been modest and has been more than offset by additional savings.

Since the Budget delivered on 2 April 2019, the Coalition has made $1.4 billion in new spending commitments over the forward estimates, building to $3.8 billion over the medium term.

This is more than offset by a reduction in departmental funding of $1.5 billion over the forward estimates, building to $5 billion over the medium term.

This means a re-elected Coalition Government will reduce departmental funding by $600 million less than Labor, who have announced a $2.1 billion cut to departmental funding.

That means that over the forward estimates departmental funding will reduce from $288.6 billion to $287.1 billion over the forward estimates, whereas under Labor it would reduce further to $286.5 billion.

Unlike Labor the Coalition will leave it to the judgement of departmental secretaries where those efficiencies are best found.

If departmental secretaries assess that these efficiencies can best be secured through reductions in expenditure on contractors, consultants and travel, because that makes sense from a value-for-money point of view, then of course that is what the Coalition would expect them to do.

Efficiency outcomes will be better and more sensible by letting departmental secretaries make those judgements based on value-for-money considerations.

The net effect of all our policy commitments announced since the Budget during the election campaign is a slight improvement to the budget surplus in each year of the current forward estimates period, without increasing taxes.

This leads to a slight overall increase in the cumulative surplus, now expected to be $45.1 billion over the next four years.

In contrast Labor has abandoned any pretence of budget responsibility.

Labor’s own costings reveal a massive $35 billion in additional spending on its promises over the forward estimates, and $112 billion over the medium term.

However, its spending goes well beyond this. Just one day after Labor released its costings, Bill Shorten promised a further $10 billion in spending.

Labor’s costings do not account for a series of expensive spending promises they have made costing more than $40 billion over the forward estimates and more than $240 billion over the next decade.

The Coalition has made a lot of progress in rebuilding our economy and repairing the Budget. There is more to do. This is not the time to turn back to Labor’s fiscal mismanagement. The Coalition has the right plan to build our economy and secure Australia’s future.

Updated

Josh Frydenberg is making the Coalition’s costings announcement. As we predicted it is a two flagger press conference. Mathias Cormann is there too.

Paul Karp is all up in that grill, so we’ll bring you something on that as soon as we can.

Updated

Yes, as has rightly been pointed out, INXS has also done a song called Burn for you.

But apparently Tina Arena has also done a burn for you.

Basically, Scott Morrison answered a question on whether Tony Abbott would be in his cabinet, with a song lyric by any number of Australian artists.

To call back to Morrison’s opening statement, he is just as happy not to answer questions inside the National Press Club as he is to not answer questions outside the National Press Club.

Updated

Zali Steggall, the independent taking on Tony Abbott in the Sydney seat of Warringah, has called for an increase in the rate of Newstart.

Steggall is considered a chance of knocking off the former prime minister despite his 11% margin and has been campaigning most strongly on the issue of climate change.

While she has taken more conservative positions on other economic issues, such as vowing to oppose Labor’s policy on franking credits, Steggall told Guardian Australia the current unemployment benefit was inadequate.

“I totally agree we need to do more to help the more vulnerable in our society, and I accept that Newstart is too low and is not something that can be lived on. It needed to be raised,” she said.

“I’m also focused on creating opportunities to assist people shifting off Newstart and into jobs.”


The Australian Council of Social Service, which advocates a $75 a week increase to the $277 a week payment, says Steggall joins fellow high-profile independent MPs and candidates including Helen Haines, Rob Oakeshott, Derryn Hinch, Rebekah Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie, Kerryn Phelps, Bob Katter, and Kevin Mack in backing an increase.

Their positions could prove vital if Labor, which appears poised to increase the payment following a review, is forced to govern in minority.

Guardian Australia previously reported that the entire lower house crossbench in the previously parliament backed an increase.

Updated

After Scott Morrison was asked – again – why he abstained from the parliamentary vote on same-sex marriage in 2017, it’s worth revisiting some opinions Morrison has previously expressed about same-sex marriage and adoption.

In 2011, after the New South Wales parliament legalised same-sex adoption, Morrison had this to say:

Since entering the parliament and before I have held a very clear, consistent and public view supporting the current definition of marriage as a voluntary union for life of a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others.

For me this is fundamentally about a child’s natural right to a mother and a father.

I believe that this right should be protected in all commonwealth laws, especially the Marriage Act.

I am extremely disappointed by the decision of the New South Wales parliament to legalise same-sex adoption.

However, I do not consider that this error should be compounded by the federal parliament.

Religions and cultures over centuries have held that family is ultimately based on the union of a man and a woman.

I do not believe that the tested wisdom of centuries has been overwhelmed by more contemporary arguments.

Marriage, as I have said, is a union between a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others for life.”

Updated

And another key point – the transfer happened last November, according to the article – which is when Scott Morrison was prime minister:

Last November, without any public announcement, the pair packed up their things at an immigration detention centre in rural Virginia and prepared for a trip that must have been almost impossible for them to fathom. After over 15 years in US custody, Leonidas Bimenyimana and Gregoire Nyaminani were headed for new lives in Australia.

Updated

What we do know, is that Malcolm Turnbull, in the leaked transcript of his conversation with Donald Trump about this refugee swap deal, is that Australia did offer to take anyone the US wanted – swapping “a not very attractive guy to help you out then to take a Noble peace prize winner that comes by boat”.

Trump: Does anybody know who these people are? Who are they? Where do they come from? Are they going to become the Boston bomber in five years? Or two years? Who are these people?

Turnbull: Let me explain. We know exactly who they are. They have been on Nauru or Manus for over three years and the only reason we cannot let them into Australia is because of our commitment to not allow people to come by boat. Otherwise we would have let them in. If they had arrived by airplane and with a tourist visa then they would be here.

Trump: Malcom [sic], but they are arrived on a boat?

Turnbull: Correct, we have stopped the boats.

Trump: Give them to the United States. We are like a dumping ground for the rest of the world. I have been here for a period of time, I just want this to stop. I look so foolish doing this. It [sic] know it is good for you but it is bad for me. It is horrible for me. This is what I am trying to stop. I do not want to have more San Bernardinos or World Trade Centres. I could name 30 others, but I do not have enough time.

Turnbull: These guys are not in that league. They are economic refugees.

Trump: OK, good. Can Australia give me a guarantee that if we have any problems – you know that is what they said about the Boston bombers. They said they were wonderful young men.

Turnbull: They were Russians. They were not from any of these countries.

Trump: They were from wherever they were.

Turnbull: Please, if we can agree to stick to the deal, you have complete discretion in terms of a security assessment. The numbers are not 2,000 but 1,250 to start. Basically, we are taking people from the previous administration that they were very keen on getting out of the United States. We will take more. We will take anyone that you want us to take. The only people that we do not take are people who come by boat. So we would rather take a not-very-attractive guy that help you out then to take a Nobel peace prize winner that comes by boat. That is the point.

Updated

There are still a lot of questions about the Politico Europe story, which Scott Morrison avoided answering.

Scott Morrison finishes with a John Farnham lyric. Tina Arena must be crushed.

Question: Tony Abbott has said that he is willing to lead the Liberal party again if he survives this election. If you end up in opposition, would you be willing to step aside for his return and if you win, would you promote him to your frontbench?

Morrison:

You know what?

This election isn’t about individuals, it’s not about my future, it’s not about any other politicians’ future.

It’s not about the personality game which is I know fascinates people in Canberra.

It’s about the Australians.

I was talking about before. It’s about their future, about the choices I want them to have, it’s about the home I want young people to be able to buy.

I can’t tell you how energised I have been by standing in the near completed kitchens of first homebuyers around this country, whether in country towns or suburbs out of Melbourne or Sydney or anywhere else, the look on their faces over what they have been able to achieve is priceless.

People ask me, “How have you been so energised in this campaign?”

You meet that many Australians in that short period of time, you can’t help but be energetic because of the way they inspire you everyday.

And that’s what lights me up.

You know, I used to say to people when I would try and get them to get involved in politics, I used to use this process where I try to talk them out of it.

I thought if I can talk you out of running out of office, you shouldn’t run because if you do this as your calling, as your vocation in life, you need to understand one thing really important and that’s that people are the reason you do job.

If you don’t get on with people, if they’re not what motivates you inside, find another job.

Do something else. I’m sure the skills and things that can be applied well in many other disciplines.

You want to serve this country as its leader, you want to sell policy directions for the next decade, then in your heart you must burn with the passion for the Australian people like no one else.

That’s what must motivate you to serve, not power, not ambition, not numbers, not the nonsense of Canberra and the games that are played in the bubble.

It must be those Australians that I have had the privilege of being with for everyday I have served in this parliament and particularly to serve in the privilege of prime minister, they will light me up and infuse me every single day and if Australians give me that opportunity on Saturday, they can be absolutely assured that I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires.

That is what’s at the top of my agenda. I’m for you, I’m asking you to vote for me.

Updated

Question: We found out this morning that more than 450,000 young Australians aged 19 will be voting for the first time in this federal election. Could you consider going back to when you were 19 and the advice you sought about how do I vote in this damn federal election and what’s your message to those 19-year-old Australian young men and women? They are aspirational. You’re saying now it’s time. Can you tell them at home – and right around Australia – how it is their time?

Scott Morrison: Well, look, thanks for the question. I will tell you the advice my dad will give me – he still gives me advice. I still get plenty of advice from my dad. When I was coming out of university and looking to go into work. The first thing was to take out private health insurance. Good advice.

Taking responsibility for yourself and others. Wasn’t too much longer after I go to university that I got married. You all know our story from there. But the advice I would give to young people is this.

I remember when I came out of university and I went into the recession that we apparently had to have, according to Paul Keating and Labor. I remember 1 million people out of work. I remember people I knew who couldn’t get jobs, people who studied hard, worked hard, in their lives and they were out of work.

Prior to that, around about that time, parents of friends and others paying 17% interest rates. Small businesses going out of business. That was the last recession we had in this country. I lived through it as a working Australian, as I expect many people in this room did.

More than half the people voting on Saturday will never live through a recession during their working life. I never want them to. I never want them to.

And the way you do that is by ensuring you keep the economy strong. We must take action on climate change.

We must take action to ensure that all of those who need the support of the national disability insurance scheme get it. We must take action to combat youth suicide in this country, and I set aside more than half a billion dollars to deal with that.

Taking action on renewables, we will ensure all these things and we will continue to do these things. But you can’t do it if I of them if you can’t manage money.

Countries that don’t have a strong economy, they are not taking action on climate change. They are not. They can’t!

They don’t have a Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme which means a 13-year-old boy can get access to a drug for cystic fibrosis that costs $40.30, not $250,000. Countries that don’t manage money well can’t do that. They don’t have pension.

They don’t have Newstart, any of these schemes.

If you don’t have a strong economy, then none of these things can happen in the same way they do here in Australia. We can never take this for granted.

The hard work that has done – by previous generations, to give to us, the younger generations coming through.

I talked about that on Sunday as a promise to Australians. Of Australia.

And we all are custodians of that promise.

But no one is trusted more with that promise than the prime minister you elect and you will have the opportunity to do that on Saturday. So, I would say to them as you look out over the next decade of your life – the economy you live in will determine whether you can buy a house. It will determine what job you can have and whether the company you want to work for will be there or the company you’re going to start will take off. It will determine so many of your choices.

And I want you to live in an economy where you can have those choices and where together, as a country and as a society, we take action on the things that are also very important to us as Australians. But you must be able to do it from a position of a strong economy.

If you don’t have that, basically you don’t have the ticket to ride when it comes on all the other issues that are so important and I know and motivate young people. As they should. I love the passion of young people.

It needs to be supported and assisted. I think by the wisdom of safe and secure financial management, which enables all of them to realise their aspirations.

You know, in 2007 when Kevin Rudd was elected, he said he would be a fiscal conservative. He said he would do a lot of things.

He didn’t represent himself to the country in the way that he then went and ran the country.

And when government changed in 2007 it has taken us now more than a decade to get back to where John Howard left us in 2007, whether it’s the budget, whether it’s the employment as a share of the economy, on so many of these issues. It’s taken us more than a decade to get back.

Vote Labor once, you will pay for it for a decade. And what we want to do with our plans is continue that strong growth, which enables us to take action on the issues that really matter.

(Three letters. G. F. C)

Updated

Former deputy secretary of the immigration department:

Question: When the government used its position to seek appointment of a special purpose liquidator to look at the collapse of Queensland Nickel and also Clive Palmer’s actions personally, Michaelia Cash said a that the government would use every power as its disposal to hold responsible company officers to account. Roll forward to today. Clive Palmer is now a vote that you potentially will have to court in the Senate. How does the government intend to manage the conflict between pursuing Palmer in the courts, and courting his vote in the Senate?

And has Mr Palmer sought leniency at all in discussions about preferences, and if he does, over the course of the next government, will the answer always be no?

Scott Morrison: Yes, it will be no.

And the answer is no in relation to the other matters that you raised. And we will continue to pursue that measure through the courts. With full vigour. And are confidence in our ability to pursue that, as we absolutely should.

Updated

Question: Can I return to Andrew Probyn’s question about these Rwandans? Your government did make a deal over Labor’s medevac laws, it would allow suspected murderers to come into the country. This was a terrible thing. I’m still unclear from your answer earlier: can you give an assurance here today – a guarantee – that no suspected murderers have been allowed in under your government’s watch?

Scott Morrison: What I said – I will repeat my answer – I can assure you that the full security and character test assessments were undertaken by our security agencies in relation to all persons who have entered Australia.

Updated

Question: Once upon a time as treasurer – not that long ago – you were looking at options for negative gearing. So much so some of your cabinet colleagues that say on occasion the prime minister had to complain about the fact that he regarded you as front-running the debate in the media before it had been agreed. So, my question is: did you ever take a proposal for negative gearing reforms to budget subcommittees, the expenditure review committee? Did you return to the issue after the 2016 election and order more economic modelling on the proposal for consideration? And if you did, isn’t it hypocritical to run the spare scam feign you have on negative gearing during the election?

Morrison: The answer to the question was in the 17-18 budget.

Where we made changes to negative gearing that related to what were – allowable deductions for expenses related to investment properties.

We actually looked at a range of things and ensuring there was integrity in the system and we actually took them forward. I put them in the budget after an election.

So, through that period of time, when you form budgets, you look at a whole range of issues. You look at a whole range of issues, and they are set out in the budget. The answer is in the budgets I handed down.

And we have no further plans. No plans. We will not be making changes to negative gearing in the future. Absolute not.

Just like I won’t be making any changes to take away or erode in any way, shape or form people’s private health insurance rebate. Labor will not make that commitment to you at this election.

We were here in this very room at the debate, where I challenged the Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten, to rule out any changes to the private health insurance rebate.

He couldn’t. He wouldn’t.

I think that should be cause for concern.

As a treasurer, you can be absolutely confident that as I formed a budget, will look at many, many, many options, and particularly at a time, back in 2016 and 17 where bringing the budget back into balance and meeting the 2021 surplus commitment was a serious task.

But we made decisions and those decisions are set out in the budget, and that’s why I think Australians can have confidence. My record when it comes to these issues are in the budgets that delivered.

And the results that those budgets delivered, particularly the last two where our budget was able to accede the outcome set out at the beginning of year by $10 approximately in each year’s case -– $10bn in each year’s case, which is how we have been able to achieve a budget surplus. If you want to know what I think? Read my budget.

Updated

Question: Bill Shorten has committed to a reviewing Newstart if elected. You have previously said before that if you were going to look at increasing any welfare payments you would first look at the aged pension. I wonder if elected would you consider reviewing the aged pension to see if it is possible to increase that?

Scott Morrison: You’re right to say that’s how I responded to an answer if that’s indeed what was on the government’s agenda.

What I think is very cruel about what Labor has said about Newstart is they are seeking to lead people on to think there will be an increase in Newstart. But they haven’t budgeted for that.

They have made no provision for that in what they have set out in their costings before the election. See, I don’t lead people on. I don’t let them think I’m going to do something that I’m not going to do. If I’m going to do something, I’m upfront with them about it and tell them. I certainly do that before an election.

And I think what Labor has done in trying to let people think there is going to be an increase in Newstart, if that’s their intention, fine.

Say so, and tell us how you’re going to pay for it.

But you don’t get to do it without telling people how you pay for it, and if you’re not going to do it, you shouldn’t be playing with people’s lives by suggesting you might. I think it’s been a dishonest position that the Labor party has put at this election about Newstart.

People know our position.

It goes up twice a year with the cost of living.

Our approach to assisting people on Newstart has been principally in our success in getting people off Newstart and actually getting them into a job in record numbers and particularly young people.

But I also note people on Newstart – 99% are also in receipt of other support payments, whether that be rental assistance or other support payments that they are eligible for.

You can’t have a safe security net in this country – a social security safety net, I should say, unless you have a stronger economy.

This is the bit that really has always troubled metropolitan about Labor’s big-spending, big-taxing agenda – the experiment they make with the economy in doing it pretty much always, if not always, results in higher spending without achieving the objectives, massive cost blowouts, because they are not good at spending money well, and then all that ends up doing is ensuring that they have less resources at the end of the day to do the absolute required things you have to do as a government.

That’s why they stopped listing medicines on the PBS – because they ran out of money. That’s why they started delaying and cancelling hundreds of defence projects and allowed our defence spending to fall to 1.56%.

When Labor get in in this country, when that happens in this country, we’ve seen it all before, their appetite for spending outweighs their competence in terms of how they spend money, and what that means, the things people rely on, as we’ve seen in the Northern Territory, they were making the same promises up there in the Northern Territory election and look where they are now.

Having to go back on all of them and have severe cuts up there in the Northern Territory. Why? Because, once again, Labor have shown they don’t know how to manage money.

So, I’m not going to make those sort of promises to people before an election. And if you’re in receipt of Newstart at the moment, what I will say is I will do everything I can to get you off Newstart and get you into a job, we have a record for being able to achieve that.

I won’t make you a promise that says your Newstart is going up which isn’t a costed policy.

I think it’s a cruel hoax for the Labor party to play with people who are on very fixed and limited incomes.

Updated

'National security is always the centre of character checks,' says Morrison on suspected murderer refugee case

Question: A remarkable story has broken in the United States that points to a massacre that happened in Uganda that kills two Brits, two Kiwis, four Americans.

Now, some of people believed to be responsible for that massacre were brought to America where they were in jail for many, many years. The story notes and it’s been confirmed by the ABC – that two of the Rwandans were brought to Australia in November last year as part of the people swap that Malcolm Turnbull arranged with Barack Obama.

How is it that a Coalition that puts border security, national security, people’s security, should bring two suspected murderers to Australia? Where are they? And isn’t this utterly scandalous?

Scott Morrison: Well, I would simply say this – every single person that comes to Australia, under any such arrangements are the subject of both character and security assessments by Australian security agencies and our immigration authorities.

Now, I don’t intend to make a commentary on allegations that have been made in open source information.

But simply to assure Australians that they are the processes that we undertake and these are the same security agencies that have thwarted 15 terrorist attacks.

These are the same security agencies and related agencies, that I work with 5.5 years ago to put an end to the border chaos that we inherited from the Labor party.

These are the same people who each and every day, in many cases, put themselves at risk in certain situations to protect Australia’s national security and their safety. So, matters of national security aren’t things that I have ever canvassed in specifics in open forums such as this.

Allegations, I know, have been made out there in the public forum. But what I can assure Australians of is this: our government will always ensure that those character and national security considerations are undertaken for anyone who seeks to enter this country.

Updated

Question: Prime minister, you have said that you would lead your party from the middle, from the centre. Climate change has divided the Liberal party for 10 years and there are lots of people who would like to see the government do more than meet its 26 to 28% emissions reduction targets. I would like to ask you how would you reposition the government and unit the Liberals as a party that can lead from the centre on climate change? What more can you do on this front to end the climate wars?

Scott Morrison: Meet our targets. Meet our commitments. Say what we’re going to do and then do it. Take real action on climate change, which is what we’re doing. Not walk away from those commitments, not pretend we shouldn’t make them – we should make them – and we have made them.

And we’ve set them out soon after coming into government. We’ve kept the same commitment of a 26 to 28% reduction.

That has been the same policy of this government since it was first articulated and has been carried through by our government. And we will meet the 2020 targets.

That wasn’t going to happen when we came to government. What we inherited from Labor was a deficit of over 700 million tonnes.

Now we’re going to beat it by more than 360 million tonnes.

And that has been made possible, as I said before, the great work that particularly Greg Hunt did and has been followed through by the minister means we will meet that target.

See, Australians don’t want us to choose between having a job and taking action on climate change. And we’re facilitating that choice. We’re ensuring that Australia meets its global commitments in a responsible way that doesn’t disadvantage Australia to other countries that we compete with, that ensures we do our bit as we should, our commitments are not terribly dissimilar to many countries of similar size and scale.

Our commitments will ensure that by 2030 we will have halved our emissions per cap that in this country and reduced our emissions intensity by two-thirds. I don’t call those light commitments. I call them real commitments.

We’re going to achieve them. We have set out a plan – which I did in early February this year. $3.5bn plan through the Climate Solutions Fund, all the measures, set it out as to what we will be achieving. We won’t force companies in central Queensland or over in Western Australia in the resources industry, in the cement industry, or in the livestock industry or in the mining industry or the gas industry, to go and just send money overseas for some program – who knows what it does when that investment – which could be as much as $35bn would be better spent here on Australian jobs, innovation and technology and all of these things. I think that’s a good plan.

You know, under our government in 2017 we hit a record for renewable investments in this country. It was the third highest per capita in the world – $11bn – and it was the seventh highest overall in the world. And we’ve got $25bn in those investments coming in between 2018 and 2020.

There are 2.1 million households more with panels on their roof than there was when we came to government, around 980,000 then. We are taking action on climate change.

We will continue to take action on climate change and I have demonstrated by staying focused on the commitments we make and delivering the policies that deliver on those commitments, harking back to what I said in my remarks – real, achievable, delivered, reliable – that’s what I’ll do. That’s what governing from the centre looks like.

Updated

With all the usual caveats that single seat polls are difficult

Question: You were part of a Cabinet that made a virtue of giving the Australian people the right to decide whether same-sex marriage became law via a plebiscite. Yet when it went to the vote for that will of the people to be enacted, you couldn’t bring yourself to stay in the chamber, you left the chamber. The only other minister that did that was Barnaby Joyce. I’m wondering why you chose to do that?

Scott Morrison:

First, same-sex marriage is not an issue at this election. It is, thankfully resolved two years ago.

I was part of the government that ensured it was resolved.

And to follow a process that ensured that it would resolved.

I would certainly remind you that the previous Labor government didn’t do that. Those who said they were for the change actually voted against it in the chamber. Labor members in the Senate and the House - indeed the Prime Minister - Labor Prime Minister at the time - voted against that change.

What we did is ensured that when this change was made that it was done in a way that all Australians understood that this was the will of the Australian people and I think that was the best way for that change to be made. And I wasn’t going to stand in the way of that change.

If that, indeed, was the will of the Australian people. And I didn’t. I was true to my word on that. I will always be true to my word on these things. I will always will consistent.

I’m pleased it was resolved. I’m pleased it is no longer an issue that separates Australians. I’m pleased that now everyone can plan for their own future with confidence when it comes to these issues.

I’m glad it’s resolved. I’m glad, as a country, we have been able to move on and I was very pleased to be part of a Cabinet that worked out how to achieve that, to deal with a very controversial issue, but we did it ultimately in a way that brought Australians together, and that all Australians can now have that decision and move forward.

Question: How much longer will the workers have to wait?

Morrison: This continues to improve each month. At I said, over the last 12 months, we have gone. 1.9 to 2.3. I tell you what won’t get wages moving – employing for lawyers is what seems to be Bill’s plan to increase people’s wages.

I don’t think anyone in this country wants to get a wage rise on the back of someone else they work with getting the sack.

And you know who will feel that pressure? Where you have these things forced by regulation – women, people working casuals, young people, looking for those extra hours, people wanting to do an overtime shift – that’s what goes.

That’s what goes. I don’t want the false economy wage increase. I want the real wage increase that comes from businesses doing better, our economy expanding, and Australians having confidence in the future.

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Question: On wages, the Coalition has been saying that the best way to raise wages is to grow the economy and the demand for Labor will eventually force payrises. Yeah. We have seen today an uptick in the unemployment rate from 5% to 5. 2%, albeit with an increase in the participation rate. At what level does the rate have to get to before your formula actually kicks in?

Scott Morrison: We have seen, as you may know – this occurred during my time as Treasurer – the index rose from 1.9 to 2.3.

We have seen the tightening in the labour market, achieve that.

It is something the Reserve Bank governor has referred to.

He’s forecast that trend will continue. I also have that view.

But I tell you what will slow wages growth into the future. $387 of higher taxes on the economy.

What will slow it is a union move. And particularly the militant part of that union movement slowing down work on building sites and putting up the price of everything you build in this country.

I will tell you what will slow it, a housing tax that will erode consumer confidence in the economy and lead to what is already a challenge when it comes to consumer spending becoming a much more serious issue.

As I know you know – because we have had these discussions in press conferences and other places before – the two things that were most impacting on Australia’s AAA credit rating were they wanted to confidence that the budget would be brought back into surplus on a timetable, that the government had set out.

When I became Treasurer, that was the major question raised. I said – it was is the press conference – I said a surplus would be delivered in 21-2021, I should say. 2021. Then it was our task, for Mathias and I to go about making sure we achieved that year on year. We convinced them.

We are going to achieve it one year ahead of schedule.

That job was done.

And the AAA rating was made stronger because of that. But the other thing was ratings agencies’ concerns about a hard landing in the housing market. As you know, house prices were rising in Sydney and Melbourne at double digit rates – and they were concerned about a housing market crash in this country.

Now, right across – whether those looking into Australia or those riding on the Australian economy here – the good news is we’ve had a soft landing in the housing market of Australia.

Affirmed by the ratings agencies, another reason while we were able to achieve the AAA rating.

The risk of Labor’s housing tax is with the market softened, to further undermine values, does run the risk of a concrete landing in the housing market that would further erode – I should say would erode consumer confidence and lead to a slowing in the growth of the economy.

That’s why it’s just such a bad idea.

They have made the case for it in times past when housing prices were growing at double digit rates.

That is not happening now. The justification for why they put this forward in the past is not there.

The only justification that was ever really there for Labor’s housing tax is they want more of your money so they can spend it. That is the rationale for everything they are doing on tax.

So, I would say - you want wages to go up?

Vote Liberal and National this Saturday because that way you will have a stronger economy.

That way you won’t have the crushing impact of housing taxes and other taxes that will slow the economy, and mean that the business you work for will not be doing as well as it’s otherwise would under a Liberal and National government.

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Question: You were in WA and a retiree asked you reversing changes from franking credits. He said he felt like you gave them that commitment. Given you have a tax plan 7-8 years in the future, will you reverse changes Labor plans to bring in about franking credits at the first opportunity, if given that opportunity?

Scott Morrison: I don’t agree with the presumption of your question. I will tell you why.

I’m asking people to vote Liberals and Nationals on Saturday to prevent Labor’s retiree tax being introduced. And that’s the election we’re at.

And I’m interested in the election we’re going to this Saturday, and ensuring – ensuring – that Labor’s retiree tax will not thieve the money of hard-working retirees, will not reach into their pockets and take thousands of dollars away from them. The only way to stop Labor’s retiree tax is to vote Liberal and National this Saturday.

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Question: My question is on some tactics. We have seen Malcolm Turnbull’s son, Alex Turnbull, fund robocalls to voters in Victoria, saying at this election don’t vote Liberal. Two questions: what is your response to Alex Turnbull on his message to voters? And with Malcolm Turnbull, do you think he’s helped or hindered your campaign at this election?

Scott Morrison: Well, neither of those issues are things I intended to be distracted by.

What I’m focused on – and you raise the issue of those robocalls – they are going into the electorate of Flinders where Greg Hunt has served as that member for many years. He’s served his community well and tirelessly.

This is the health minister which we read– I think it’s the economic intelligence unit today which has said that Australia is the best prepared to deal with cancer in the world today.

Greg Hunt’s the health minister.

That’s something to vote for in Flinders. Greg Hunt is the health minister that has led us, particularly in these recent years to achieve 2,000 medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and so when I sit down with Luke Emery and his mum, Donna, and they now have access or I met Vince who has access to another drug, a lung cancer drug, or I sit down and speak to those with spinal muscular atrophy, which – Jen’s given me good advice in my time, and as she shared it at an event a few weeks ago, when she said – she knew through kid whose suffered, they were coming to Canberra – I was treasurer – she said you make sure you get the briefing. I was immediately convinced. I spoke to Greg Hunt about it. Greg said, “Let’s do this. Let’s do this.”

So, to those electors in Flinders, you have a decent compassionate, hard-working member of parliament that has served his community from that day he was first elected to this, and an environment minister that ensured we will be meeting our Kyoto 2020 targets, when we inherited a deficit, someone who’s taken action on climate change, someone who has taken action to ensure the health services that Australians rely on are delivered and delivered beyond their expectations.

So, my commendation for those receiving those calls is to hang up, reflect and vote for Greg Hunt in Flinders, because he’s someone who [you] can rely on.

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Scott Morrison concludes with:

So, I’m asking Australians – I’m asking Australians to vote Liberal and Nationals this Saturday, to elect me and not Bill Shorten as your prime minister.

So, I can continue to get on with the job while you get on with your job.

And you can trust me to do that.

You can trust me to diligently and every day get on with the task and the job that I’ve outlined at this election campaign and that me and my team are hungry and eager to get on with.

It’s been eight months since I have been in this job. It has been an incredible privilege and pleasure.

But I can tell you – I’m just getting started.

The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me.

I’m asking Australians to let me get on with the job of realising your future.

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Morrison: Now is the time to stop Labor’s higher taxings this Saturday, by voting Liberal National.

Now is the time to stop Labor’s reckless spending. Now is the time to build our economy together and secure your future business voting Liberals and Nationals this Saturday.

Now is the time – now is the time – to ensure that as we go into the next decade we build the economy you want to live in.

Because it is real.

It determines what job you have. It determines your own future, the choices that you have, and I want the economy for Australia that enables Australians’ aspirations to be realised.

From buying your first home to saving for your retirement to working hard every day, they are honest, decent aspirations of quiet Australians that I want to back in, Labor wants to tax them more.

That is fundamentally what is going on in this election.

That is why this election is such an important choice about where we are going further and where we’re going into the future as a country.

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Morrison:

Now is not the time to put a Labor party that has never demonstrated their ability to manage money in charge of a $2tn economy, which is what it will be next year.

The biggest head nod is when I have got when I have said to people – particularly among retirees – I said, “have you ever noticed that people who can’t manage money always end up spending more of it?”

When they have spent it all, they always end up coming after yours. And they all agree.

That’s what a Labor government would look like. Labor have not demonstrated they can manage money.

They are proposing the biggest spending of a government that we have ever seen in this country.

If only their capacity to spend money was as good as their capacity to want to spend money.

Their ability to actually spend on programs effectively means what you have heard is just the starting price. We know how much bigger that price gets. It goes up and up. Pink Batts – we all remember it – school halls, cash for clunckers, the you can’t afford will just keep rising, and riding and riding.

Because Labor have never proven an to manage money. If you can’t manage money you can’t run the country.

Now is not the time to turn back.

Now is not the time to say to those Australians who have worked so hard to get us where we are today, to have grown through these difficult and hard times, now is not the time to say to those who are saved up and bought their first home that apparently negative equity is OK, as Chris Bowen has said today. It is OK for the value of your house to fall as a result of the government’s policy.

Not a problem.

No, it is. It actually is a big one, I think. Worked hard, saved it for it. Australians have worked hard to get where they are.

Now is not the time to say to them they have to turn back on what they have been able to achieve and put at risk what they have already built up, and it’s certainly not the time to say to them that your opportunities in the future should also be delayed or deferred because a Labor government has a whole bunch of ideas that they want to spend your money on.

Now is not the time.

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Morrison: Now is not the time to hit a million Australians who their sin, according to Chris Bowen and Bill Shorten, is they have gone and invested in an Australian company and planned for their future and they have set themselves up for retirement. Now is not the time for a housing tax that will undermine the value of your home or put up your rent, and those are the two things that will happen as a result of Labor’s housing tax changes.

Rents will be higher than they would otherwise be and your home value, two-thirds of Australians either live in a house that they own outright or they are paying a mortgage on.

Every single one of them impacted by Labor’s housing tax. Now is not the time to see the biggest asset that you have ever invested in with the hard sweat of your own work and effort in your life to be undermined because of a Labor party that just simply wants to tax everybody more.

Now is not the time to abolish the Australian Building and Construction Commission and basically see the ACTU and Sally McManus effectively be the silent shareholder and silent board member [on] every board of every private and public company in the country.

Now is not the time for that, to bring lawlessness back to our building and construction industry, particularly when we are proceeding with the biggest investment in infrastructure programs around the country of some $100bn.

Now is not the time for that.

Now is not the time for invasive new laws that Labor would seek to do, telling farmers what they can and can’t do on their land and holding them back.

Now is the time to support those farmers. Now is the time to pass the drought fund bill, which Labor refused to pass when we were last in power.

Now is the time to recognise that they need us to stand with them, as I have done, as Michael McCormack has done, and as we have done together as a Coalition government, giving people hope in the most difficult of circumstances.

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Morrison: Our economy under unnecessary pressure when we’re facing the challenges that we’re facing.

Over the last 5.5 years or government has had to deal with one of the most significant impacts on our economy that we’ve seen as a nation, and one of the biggest tests to our AAA credit rating and, indeed, our economic growth and the record levels of growth we have seen now over in our 28th year.

And that was the fall-off in mining investment after the mining investment been that took $80 billion out of our economy. We grew through it.

Because we were backing in small and family businesses and Australians to get on with what they were doing each and every day, putting investments in place through the instant asset way-off, making sure that they knew when they put in they would be able to take out and then put in again.

So, now is not the time with trade tensions between China and the United States, now is not the time when there is uncertainty in the security environment, now is certainly not the time to do things that will weaken our economy, and a key part of that is now is not the time to impose $387 billion of a higher tax burden on our economy, weighing it down, holding it down, holding it back, impacting on every single Australian, every single one of the 25 million and more Australians there are here today around the country. 1 million Australians specifically impacted by the retiree tax which will withdraw the company tax already paid and extended as a credit to every single shareholder in this country, but not some, according to the Labor Party. They will be denied.

Everyone else can get it. The same credit that flows through to every single shareholder in this country, but not for some.

Not for a million Australians for whom Bill Shorten will deny that too and will take it like Rosalie - no refund for her.

No credit for her. She invested in that company, like every other shareholder, but no credit for her. That’s her private health insurance.

It’s people’s money to go and say their grandkids, others to pay their electricity bill. This is their money.

They’ve paid taxings all their lives. Now is not the time to go and hit Rosalie.

Scott Morrison:

I believe now is the time to guarantee the funding for essential services – hospitals, schools and roads – as we have been doing.

Hospitals up 60%, public schools 60%, Medicare at record lists, a strong track record of delivering on the essential services, building the East West Link, building the fast rail from Melbourne to Geelong, building the Melbourne Airport Link, realised one of the biggest projects of infrastructure this country has seen, the Sydney – western Sydney international airport and the rail and road infrastructure that supports it and makes it a reality.

Realising the inter-connector between Tasmania and the mainland in Victoria with the link and advancing the battery of the nation and the Snowy 2.0 – all of this is what you achieve in guaranteeing essentials that Australians rely on. It’s time to do all of that.

And that’s what we are going to do. And it’s time also to keep Australians safe and our borders secure as our government always has and Liberals and Nationals can always be trusted to achieve.

Updated

I know he is riffing off Bill Shorten’s deliberate call back to Gough Whitlam’s “It’s time” speech, but this is the second time that Scott Morrison has borrowed from a Labor prime minister for a set piece campaign speech.

The “promise of Australia” was first said by Bob Hawke in a speech in the late 80s, and that first popped up in Morrison’s favourite slogan list in the Scott Morrison campaign launch on Sunday.

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Morrison continues:

It’s time to continue tot deliver the tax relief that Australians deserve.

Not just the tax relief that we have already legislated, but the tax relief that we will legislate if elected this Saturday, and we recall the Parliament and we pass those laws to provide further tax relief for families and small and family businesses into the future.

Tax relief that enables Australians - you know, tax can sometimes be a pretty dry topic.

It’s not one has is often talked about in the pubs and clubs of Australia.

Except when it comes time to pay it and if someone is asking you to pay more, that’s for sure.

But let me tell you why tax is such an important issue to define the difference between the alternatives at this election.

If you think that Australians are really the answer to the questions being posed to our country at the moment, then you ensure they keep more of what they earn, if you think that.

If you don’t, you think the government should have more of what they earn. Because you think that the government is the answer to the problem, not the Australians themselves.

See, for me, taxation is a key litmus test of what you really think about the capacity and ability of the Australian people.

And if Australians have the opportunity to have the choice about where they are investing their hard-won money, in their families, futures, and their plans, if you really believe that, you’ll let them keep more of it. If you don’t, you’ll take more of it off them.

And that’s the difference between Bill Shorten and I at this election. I am saying - I want all Australians to keep more of what they earn. Not just some. I want all Australians to keep more of what they earn.

Because I believe that they are the answer to a stronger economy in this country. And I believe that if you give them that go, then they will have a go, and they’ll get a go, and Australia will be stronger as a result.

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Morrison (the aspiration count is getting up there):

See, there will be a bit of talk today about It’s Time.

Let me tell you what it’s time for.

Let me tell you what it is really time for today. It is time to create 1.25 million new jobs.

That’s what our economic plan outlines.

Time to see 250,000 more small and family businesses created in this country.

Creating prosperity and opportunities for people right across our country.

It’s time to see 250,000 young people go and get a job over the next five years and get that job because of the economy they are living in and the choices they will have and the support of government whether it is support for 80,000 new apprentices to get that training.

Or to ensure that the businesses they will go and work for will be there and they will thriving.

Not just in our big cities, but right across the country, whether it’s out there in Wangaratta, where I was yesterday, or up in Gladstone, or over in Perth or Kununurra, or down in the suburbs of Adelaide or, indeed, with J Rod, just out of Launceston.

Quite a character. I hope you get the chance to meet him. I enjoyed meeting him. He’s a great guy.

So, creating 1.25 million jobs is what it’s time for.

That is what our economic plan has been delivering, and what it will continue to deliver. 1.3 million jobs already created. I won’t go through all the statistics today, because you’ve heard them - the 100,000 jobs for young people that were created in just one year.

That’s what it’s time for.

It’s time for a stronger economy to continue.

It’s also time to maintain and achieve the budget surpluses and may down debt from a government who knows how to do that job.

The budget comes back to surplus for the first time next year for the first time in 12 years. Not by accident, by chance, but by a government that knows how the keep expenditure under control - and its taxes - to support a stronger economy and to ensure that Australians are taken off welfare and put into work.

That’s what’s balances the budget. Not higher taxes. What’s balancing the budget is the hard work of Australians, each and every day, being supported and enabled and facilitated by a government that understands that it’s a stronger economy that makes Australia stronger.

Not government taking all of your money and pretending to have all the answers.

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Scott Morrison continues:

And so, as we go into this election, I think Australians are not looking for big-spending, big-taxing programs directed up as vision.

That’s no vision.

What they are looking for is something that’s real, something that’s credible, something that’s achievable, and being achieved, something they know they can afford, not the Bill they can’t afford, something that they know they can rely on, and someone they know they can really trust.

At this election, my proposal is actually quite straightforward. I have been making it each and every day.

I believe that Australians are the answer to meeting the challenges that we face as a nation.

I believe Australians are the answer to securing our future prosperity and the opportunities that are there in front of us. I believe they are.

Our government believes that Australians are the source of a stronger economy and a stronger society and a safer nation.

We choose - our government, your aspirations. We choose the life, the job, the future you see for yourself in your town, in your home, in your suburb, in your family. We don’t see our government as the centre of your world. We see you as the centre of our world as a government.

Putting your aspirations and what you want to achieve at the top of our list.

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Morrison:

I believe that this election is not so much at all about Australians deciding which side they are going to be on -Liberal, Labor and the many other myriad choices there are. It’s got nothing to do with that.

They are trying to work out which one of these are on my side.

That’s the question they are asking.

It’s not about joining the blue team or the red team. It’s about asking which of those teams is actually for me? And focused on me? And what I want for my family and what I’m trying to achieve? “Do they think I’m the answer or do they think they are?” I believe that’s what Australians do as we go across this election.

So, I see my job in this campaign as prime minister, leading a Liberal and National government, is not to convince Australians to join my side, but to demonstrate to them, each and everyday I have the privilege to serve, that our government and our policies are firmly on theirs. I believe Australians have also become far more discerning, even more discerning in making these choices.

And far more realistic too when forming judgements about who really is on their side.

They quickly see through, I think, today tired old claims that if the government could just spend more of your money, they could solve all of your problems.

They’ve seen that before. And they’ve seen where it ends. And they know they end up paying for it and paying for it, and paying for it.

Updated

The camera just went to the crowd, where Zed Seselja was having an unfortunately timed vague-out, and momentarily looked confused over which event he had turned up at.

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Morrison:

Over the course of this campaign, and well before and over my entire political and public life - and indeed before that - I’ve had the great privilege of meeting with Australians, right around the country, and listening carefully to them.

Those who have just bought their home or saving for it, small business owners and the smile on their face as they tell me about the young apprentice who’s just about to complete that 4.5-year apprenticeship, and how they have helped change that young person’s life.

Another family who has started a family business, one that’s been running it for 30 years and is passing it on to their next generation, in farms hit by floods or farms hit by drought, and just carefully listening to them.

Australians who are retiring from a lifetime of hard work, having paid taxes, and are now looking forward to pursuing their retirement together with their loved ones. You know, I think Australia is made stronger by Australians.

It’s Australians that are the source of our strength. It is them pursuing their own aspirations that makes our country strong.

The lives they wish to lead, the families they form, that homes that they make, the businesses they start and run, the savings they put aside, the communities they build, the legacy they lead - that is what makes Australia stronger, more resilient, safer, more secure.

Australians being Australians.

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Morrison continues, with an appearance of the “quiet Australian”:

Australians, I think, take their elections very seriously. And always have. But you know, it doesn’t mean they spend all their waking moments thinking about politics. That’s reserved for Canberra, I think.

They don’t think about this all the time. But that doesn’t mean they take this decision less seriously than anyone else.

They don’t think about it all the time because frankly they have better things to do with their lives and they expect those who come and form governments - and leaders who they elect - to get on and do the job, to get about it.

And they will go back to what they get about - their daily lives. Raise their families, run their businesses, go to work, save to buy a home, buy a home, study to secure a better future for themselves, save for their retirement so they can be independent and have choices, care for perhaps a disabled child or an elderly parent, or, indeed, your partner over the course of your entire life and it is now your job - your loving job - to be providing care to your partner in your closing years.

To enjoy life by spending it with friends and family, to volunteer at local sports clubs or at the local surf life saving club or the Rural Fire Service or the emergency services, being part of the community - these are honest decent, humble aspirations of Australians going about their lives.

That’s what they are focused on. That’s what matters to them.

They have no time for shouty debates in politics.

They have no time for Twitter trolling, sit-in protests or any of this other form of political activity.

They are too busy doing the things that matter most to them and frankly build our country and make it stronger every single day.

They are Australians going quietly about their lives, planning and steadfastly pursuing their own goals for their own futures.

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Morrison:

This will be a close election. That is not something, I think, anyone was writing two months ago, six months ago, eight months ago.

Or even longer. But it is a close election.

And it will be a close election and that is certainly, I think, the consensus that has emerged, particularly in recent days.

A fact now realised – and what that means to Australians watching this today is you will decide.

Every single vote that is cast on this this Saturday, will – this weekend, this Saturday – decide who will lead our country for the next three years, who will form government, and it will determine not just the three years that are in front of us but I believe the next decade that Australia will live in, the next decade of the economy that Australians will live in, and the choices that they will have.

So every Australian, as you are making up your minds in the last few days - as so many more will and as they will even as they walk towards the ballot box on Saturday, they will be making up their minds.

Don’t let anyone tell you that this election is run and done. Don’t let anyone tell you that your vote doesn’t count because it will. Every single vote will count. You are empowered with this great and important choice.

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Scott Morrison's National Press Club address

Scott Morrison begins his press club address with a swipe at Bill Shorten for not taking up his own press club invitation:

Can I begin by acknowledging the Ngunnawal people, elders, past, present and emerging. Can I acknowledge serving men and women in our defence forces, or veterans in the room, and say to you thank you for your service.

I’m very pleased to be here today.

This is an important tradition and part of our electoral process here in Australia that, the leaders of both parties – major parties – going into an election present themselves before the National Press Club.

It’s part of the process. It’s part of what Australians, I think, expect for our leaders to come and submit themselves to our dear friends in the media here in Canberra before the election.

It’s about accountability.

It’s about submitting yourself to scrutiny.

It’s about showing respect for the electoral process and the decision that Australians will make, importantly, this weekend. Election campaigns are not coronation tours, as some seem to think.

There is an event happening in Sydney where I understand that is much more the tone of that event.

Very much focused on a self-congratulatory process in a party hoopla-style event. That isn’t what’s happening here today.

What’s happening here today is part of the discipline of our electoral process in this country. Fronting up to take the questions, which I’m pleased to do.

I understand – my advice is that it’s been a long time since the leader of the opposition has not presented themselves here for such an address. You have to go back to John Hewson in 1993.

Anyway. That said, I’m pleased to be here, and happy to have the opportunity to share with Australians and to be subject to the questions of the media today.

Updated

While we are talking robocalls, the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age’s Shane Wright wrote about one the Liberals put out:

Thousands of robocalls by Yellow Brick Road founder Mark Bouris urging voters to reject Labor at Saturday’s election have fallen foul of election laws amid accusations he told ‘lies’ about Bill Shorten’s negative gearing proposals.

Mr Bouris, a strong critic of Labor’s plans to restrict negative gearing to new properties, featured in a robocall to voters on Wednesday evening in which he warned house prices would fall under the policy.

‘What we don’t need after this Saturday’s election is a government that brings further pressure on to property prices in Australia by eliminating negative gearing and changing the capital gains tax regime for property,’ he said.

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Everything old is new again - Anthony Albanese has printed out 50 “hot Albo” corflutes.

Given we have seen a completely new grammar rule created this campaign – “we have brought the budget back into surplus next year”, why not run your campaign on how you looked back in the day?

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Totally normal election campaign:

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Things are going really well in the NSW Coalition

Updated

ACTU secretary Sally McManus has defended its how-to-vote cards by arguing that “only the ALP can win in the lower house seats where we are campaigning”.

In Melbourne’s inner-east there are a number of contests where Labor and the Greens are in the running to take Liberal seats, including Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong and Higgins, being vacated by Kelly O’Dwyer. In Macnamara, Labor is looking to hold the seat against a Greens challenge.

The Change the Rules how-to-vote cards recommend #1 Labor, #2 Greens in those seats:


These are authorised by Luke Hilikari of Victoria Trades Hall Council, not the ACTU.

As I reported in a feature on union campaigning, the ACTU is targeting 16 seats, with Queensland making up the lion’s share (Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Petrie, Leichhardt and Herbert).

But then, after bullish state election results, the VTHC added a slew of blue-ribbon targets to the Change the Rules campaign: Kooyong (Liberal held by 12.8%), Higgins (10.1%), Flinders (7%) and even Menzies (7.8%) and Deakin (6.4%), alongside the more low-hanging fruit of Chisholm (2.9%) and La Trobe (3.2%).

Updated

That employment data is important, given the RBA statement, earlier this month, that it needs to see employment growth in order to keep starving off a rate cut.

This ain’t that.

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Australia's unemployment climbs to 5.2%

The latest jobs figures are out. Here is what the ABS had to say about the last month. Trend unemployment remained steady at 5.1%. Seasonally adjusted though was worse than expected, ticking up 0.1% to 5.2%. From the ABS release:

Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady in April 2019 at 5.1 per cent, from a revised March 2019 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The unemployment rate remained at 5.1 per cent for a second month, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same time last year.”

Employment and hours

In April 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 21,000 persons. Full-time employment increased by 15,000 persons and part-time employment increased by 6,000 persons.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 311,000 persons (2.5 per cent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

“The rise in employment over the past year was supported by an increase of around 260,000 full-time and 50,000 part-time employed persons,” Mr Hockman said.

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.3 per cent in April 2019 and by 2.8 per cent over the past year. This was above the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.7 per cent.

Underemployment and underutilisation

The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 per cent in April 2019 and decreased by 0.2 percentage points over the year. The monthly trend underutilisation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 13.4 per cent, and decreased by 0.6 percentage points over the year.

States and territories trend unemployment rate

The trend unemployment rate remained steady in New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia. It decreased by 0.1 percentage points in the Northern Territory and by less than 0.1 percentage points in Queensland. It increased by 0.2 percentage points in the Australian Capital Territory, by 0.1 percentage points in Tasmania and by less than 0.1 percentage points in Victoria.

Over the year, the unemployment rate fell in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, and increased in South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

Seasonally adjusted data

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 per cent in April 2019, from a revised March 2019 figure (5.1 per cent). The participation rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 65.8 per cent. The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 28,000.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by around 300,000 people entering and leaving employment in the month.

Updated

Scott Morrison will be delivering his press club address at 12.30pm.

Bill Shorten will be giving his speech sometime after 1pm.

And I think we can expect costings sometime later this afternoon. You may remember Shorten gave his press conference well in advance of Chris Bowen handing down Labor’s costings last week.

It’ll be the same deal with the Coalition.

Updated

This remains one of the stupidest arguments we have heard this election.

I don’t care what you think of the Greens, but there is no way they are more dangerous than a party that has been running white supremacy bullshit which is so bad printers have refused to print their policy cards:

Updated

Bill Shorten had a very quick chat with the cameras during a morning street walk in Sydney this morning, about what everyone can expect from his final speech later today:

There is a mood for change right across Australia. The government has run out of ideas. It’s rapidly running out of time. People want real action on climate. They want to see the pensioners get the dental care they so richly deserve.

They want [cuts] to schools and hospitals reversed. They want to end the chaos in Canberra. There is a mood for change and we believe that Labor offers the best chance for stability and real action on the issues which affect working and middle-class people.

Updated

With the caveat that the men in the Politico Europe report have not been convicted, the story is interesting because of the rhetoric the government, including David Coleman and Peter Dutton, let loose with following the passing of the medevac bill. They spoke of people being charged, but not convicted, of serious crimes as being able to come to Australia under the bill and how terrible that would be.

The government has also turned down the New Zealand offer to accept asylum seekers from Manus Island and Nauru because of the freedom of movement between Australia and New Zealand. That puts these comments from one of the victims of the Rwanda attack in context. As Politico Europe reports:

Several relatives of those killed, called for this story, also reacted with shock and outrage to the relocation. “You’re joking,” said Jean Strathern of New Zealand, whose 26-year-old old daughter Michelle was among those who died in the massacre. “You’re not kidding me, are you? We are absolutely blown away, absolutely. Wow. It makes shivers run down your spine. They’re only two, three hours away on a plane … We’re a bit too close for comfort.

The report does also go into some of the doubts around the case:

Not all the foreigners at the park that violent day two decades ago share the outrage that the two men were settled in Australia. From the beginning of the prosecution, at least one American who was on hand during the attack had doubts that — out of the 150 fighters who attacked the park — the FBI managed to find the three who specifically killed the Americans.

‘I was deeply suspicious that they had actually confessed legitimately,’ said Elizabeth Garland, then a 29-year-old doctoral student living at the park campground and studying the impact of tourism on the community, and who survived by hiding out in her tent.

Many in the Obama administration came to share those doubts about whether the men played any role in the murders, another former official said, fuelling the drive to find the men a home outside Rwanda.

Updated

The Macquarie poll has dropped, with Galaxy putting Labor ahead at 53% to 47%, which would show Labor holding the seat quite comfortably.

Updated

Over at The Conversation, Martin O’Brien, a lecturer in economics at the University of Wollongong, has looked at whether or not cutting penalty rates has led to more work and concluded that no, it has not:

The retail and hospitality sectors depend upon discretionary household spending. It is likely the expected employment stimulus has been affected by a lack of demand and spending in these sectors. Less spare cash after paying important bills means less spending on extra goodies like restaurant meals, holidays, recreational goods – all the things that retail and hospitality rely on.

It doesn’t matter how much you try and reduce business costs via penalty rate cuts, if people aren’t spending money then employers are not going to put extra people on for Sundays and public holidays.

In fact, decreasing the Sunday and public holiday pay for a decent chunk of the labour force may be adding to this lack of consumer demand and confidence.

Updated

The interview also touched on the “Labor will bring in death taxes” (this has not been in its policy at all) campaign which is running large on social media:

Question: I want to take you back to a point that you made at the start of our conversation, which is about the scare campaigns and the fake news that’s been around during this campaign. The scare campaign around so-called death duties by the Labor party, which as we know is a false one and has very interesting origins actually.

Plibersek: Yep

Question: How damaging has that been and have you managed to counter it?

Plibersek: Look, Virginia, I’m so glad that you know that this is just a big, fat lie. I think it’s very instructive that mainstream media are not at all running this as a story, but on the internet, there is just so much crazy stuff going on. It’s disturbing that some Liberal and National MPs have picked up this scare campaign, the death duties, pretending that it’s Labor policy. We’ve got - I’m off to Gilmore today – down to Nowra. I believe Warren Mundine down there has been saying that if you renovate your home, you’re going to have to put in an electric vehicle charging station. There’s some crazy stuff out there. All we can do is present our positive vision for change: real action on climate change, better investment in health and education, the same or bigger tax cuts for 10 million working Australians, and hope that the scare campaigns are recognised for what they are. It’s a very important reminder that we have to have a strong and independent media in Australia as well to call out these lies.

Updated

Tanya Plibersek was on ABC Breakfast this morning, where she was asked about comments Chris Bowen made to Triple J the night before:

Question: I wanted to ask you about a comment made by the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, which is getting some play on ABC websites this morning. It was a comment he made actually to Triple J’s Hack about it being OK for homeowners, and younger homeowners in particular, to slip into negative territory, negative equity, when it comes to the equity they have in their homes. Do you agree with that and is that a good message to be sending out when Labor is trying to present itself as the party that has strong economic credentials and can look after the housing market, even when you’re proposing major changes to it?

Plibersek: Look, I’m sorry, I didn’t hear the comment, but what I’d say is this: We have, for six years been saying that we want first home buyers to be able to afford a property of their own. We have got a plan to build 250,000 additional affordable rental properties. We’ve got a plan to build new homelessness support services, $88 million for emergency accommodation. We have a plan for housing. The only thing the Liberals have is a scare campaign and, you know, on the one hand you got Scott Morrison saying he wants to help first home buyers. He knows, when he was treasurer he said that there were excesses in negative gearing, that helping people buy their 10th or, you know, 30th investment property is not as important as making sure that first home buyers have a level playing field. Our negative gearing policy won’t have …

Question: Tanya Plibersek, if I can – apologies for me jumping in, but I do want to direct you to the substance of that comment itself, and notwithstanding the fact you didn’t hear a quote, as a principle do you agree it’s an OK thing for young homeowners, for the value that they have in their home, for that to slip into negative equity, is that a good thing, do you agree?

Plibersek: It’s obviously not desirable and I don’t think anybody would say it’s a good thing. I don’t think anybody would say it’s a good thing. I can’t comment on …

Question: Chris Bowen says it was an OK thing.

Plibersek: Well, I think if you hold on to your property and it recovers in value, that’s a different proposition but obviously it’s not a good thing for anyone to owe more than their property is worth, and you would seek to avoid that. And I think it’s, you know, if you – if this comes from Scott Morrison’s plan to help people have 5% deposits on their properties, we see this as a modest measure around the edges of home ownership and housing affordability. What we really need to do to help first home buyers into the housing market is stop subsidising people buying their 10th or 20th investment property to compete with first home buyers at every auction that they’re attending.

Updated

It’s also Coalition costings day – where Josh Frydenberg will lay out everything that was not in the budget.

It’s coming pretty late in the piece.

Updated

Galaxy is dripping out marginal seat polls today.

Here is what we have seen so far:

Just in light of that Politco Europe report

I mean ... is this a core promise?

Is there meant to be a downside to this?

Updated

Yesterday some grassroots Greens members were upset at the Australian Council of Trade Unions Change the Rules campaign on how-to-vote cards, which put Katter’s Australian party and the DLP ahead of the Greens in some lower house contests.

ACTU secretary Sally McManus has defended the how-to-votes by arguing only Labor can win those seats, and in the Senate the ACTU is backing the Greens or Labor.

McManus told Guardian Australia:

The objective of the Change the Rules campaign is changing the laws for working people. This means electing people in the lower house who support these changes as well as changing the Senate.

There are different issues in different electorates that local people give a higher priority and we are encouraging people to vote for the parties who support change on those local issues.

Only the ALP can win in the lower house seats where we are campaigning.

Where we are handing out HTVs for the Senate we are encouraging people to vote ALP or The Greens as they are the two parties who are most committed to change on our issues.”

Updated

Meanwhile in Palmer land

Australia took two suspected murderers as part of refugee swap with US – report

This story is huge, given all the rhetoric from the government over the medevac bill.

From Politico Europe:

In a deal struck in 2016 by Australia and the US under former leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama, Washington publicly agreed to take in up to 1,250 refugees, predominantly from Iran, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, who were being held in Australian-run offshore island camps in Papua New Guinea and Nauru. The deal was done after Australia, also publicly, agreed to resettle Central American refugees from camps in Costa Rica.

But in a secret arrangement, Australia also agreed to take in at least two of three Rwandans who were brought to the US to face trial — and potentially the federal death penalty — on charges of involvement in the brutal murder of eight tourists, including two Americans and two New Zealanders, who were on a gorilla-watching visit to the Ugandan rainforest in 1999. While the three Rwandans, who were members of Hutu rebel group Army for the Liberation of Rwanda (ALIR), confessed to the murders, the American case fell apart after a judge ruled the men were tortured in their home country. That left the trio stuck in limbo, lacking the legal status to remain in the U.S., but fighting not to be returned home over concerns of persecution.

Enter Australia.

The country partly relieved America’s headache by resettling two of the men, Leonidas Bimenyimana and Gregoire Nyaminani, in Australia last November. The third, Francois Karake, told POLITICO he too met with an Australian embassy official, but he remains in the US, potentially because of an altercation that injured a guard at an immigration detention center in September 2015.

Attorneys for the three men did not respond to repeated questions about the transfer, while U.S. and Australian officials declined to comment. However, several people close to the Rwandans confirmed to POLITICO that Australia accepted Bimenyimana and Nyaminani as “humanitarian” migrants — essentially refugees — at America’s request.

Updated

I don’t know how many of you watch Game of Thrones, but Scott Morrison telling a stallholder “the Coalition always pays its bills” has me thinking of all things Westeros.

Morrison says his favourite character is Jon Snow. But watchers would know it is a Lannister who always pays his debts.

Updated

Sarah Hanson-Young has announced that, if she is returned to the Senate, one of her first moves will be to introduce legislation to stop drilling in the Great Australian Bight. From her statement:

Equinor’s shareholders have voted overnight against a push for the Norwegian oil giant to withdraw from the Bight.

‘Equinor has not listened to the impassioned plea to get Big Oil out of the Bight, but the Greens have. I will stand up for South Australia, our jobs in tourism and fishing and our beautiful beaches and fight drilling in the Bight in the Parliament,’ Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said.

‘South Australians’ vote has never been more powerful. For the sake of our Bight, our environment and acting on climate change, it has never been more important.

‘We cannot open up new fossil fuels basins in this era of climate change. We cannot allow the risk of oil choking our beaches and marine life.

‘The Greens stand proudly shoulder to shoulder with the hundreds of thousands of South Australians who want this drilling stopped. If returned to the Senate on Saturday, I will continue to fight for you in SA, and in the Parliament, to keep our Bight pristine.’

Updated

The big news out of Scott Morrison’s market walk in western Sydney this morning? AAP reports:

Scott Morrison may have made the most divisive remark of the five-week federal election campaign.

‘I love coriander.’

The prime minister was in the midst of a last-minute dash to Sydney’s Flemington Markets west of the city ahead of the election on Saturday.

The Liberals are trying to hold onto the seat of Reid following the retirement of former minister Craig Laundy.

Mr Morrison picked up an armful of herbs – including coriander, which some diners find disgusting – before declining an offer to take them for free.

‘The Coalition always pays its bills,’ he joked.

The prime minister has marketed himself as a man of many caps.

But the offer of a pineapple hat from one market worker was a brim too far.

‘I’m sorry to disappoint.’

The self-confessed curry lover also snaffled a fistful of chillies.

‘I ran out of these on Sunday night.’

Updated

Speaking of political discourse, Pauline Hanson was on Today this morning, having a go at the hosts for asking her questions. And you know, as Scott Morrison has told us, if you have a go, you get a go.

Question: The latest Newspoll shows support for One Nation collapsing to just 4%, on par now with Clive Palmer’s party. I suppose in light of all the things you have faced, all the scandals that’s been going on, can you blame people for having their doubts about One Nation and considering Clive over you?

Hanson:

Deb, in the last election, we were at 1.3%. In 2016. The polls are indicating 4%. The essential poll has got us at 6.6%. I’ve actually gone up since the last election, unlike your show, Deb. Since you have taken over you have gone down in your viewer ship.

... Should we bring Karl back, you know? You have a go at me about this all the time, about the polls, going down in the polls. The people have their say. You know, you don’t say, you know, the NSW election, we actually won two seats in the upper house. The polls had us at 1 or 2% prior to the election.

We pulled 7%. I feel you constantly have a go at myself and One Nation. Let the people have their say on Saturday and we will see. We will see how many seats if One Nation picks up seats.

Anyways, Hanson is just a politician, standing in front of a voting public, asking it to love her:

I have a beer with a lot of Aussies and we have a chat. I enjoy that and I love that. It has been down to earth. It is nice to know people want to have a beer with me because I’m one of the guys out there – I’m an Aussie who feels so disheartened with what is happening to my country and I want a voice. That’s all people want – honesty and integrity from members of the parliament to the best of their ability.

If you are going to vote One Nation, thank you very much and I’ll work by butt off to try and do the best for you.

Updated

Both leaders are in Sydney, doing early morning campaigning, before their last speeches for this campaign.

But the whole election has boiled down to these messages:

Change. Don’t change.

That’s it. And while that might be the choice every election, it’s a little strange to see the campaigns being so blatant about it, but that is what the speeches will be about.

Bill Shorten will say it’s time to change, from the place Gough Whitlam made one of the most famous Labor speeches of all time. Scott Morrison has looked at his own watch and thinks it is a little early and there is at least three more years before it’s time, and that’s what he’ll be telling you from the lectern of the National Press Club.

Political discourse is great.

Updated

“We have an order, we have a process, it’s part of an agreement … you have to abide by the agreement. If you don’t abide by a key tenet of the agreement, then of course the question [is] what is the strength of that agreement,” Barnaby Joyce tells Fran Kelly.

This all seems very, very helpful, just two days out from an election.

Meanwhile, how many times have you seen Scott Morrison in Warringah?

Updated

Barnaby Joyce, who has spent the election campaign deliberately not ruling out a tilt to return to the Nationals leadership, helpfully went on ABC RN this morning to talk about the Liberal/Nationals NSW Senate ticket war.

One can only assume that Michael McCormack, a NSW National MP and leader of the Nationals was not available. Or there has been a decision that it’s better not to have McCormack speak. Even if the alternative is the man who did his level best to burn the whole party down not so long ago.

Joyce says he has no problems with Jim Molan, who has launched a below-the-line Senate ticket campaign, which could pip Nationals would-be senator Perin Davey, who has the number three spot.

If they wanted their number four candidate to be their number one candidate, they should have gone to their Senate preselections and voted for them number one. To get three in these days is incredibly difficult and it needs total concentration and discipline to get that across the line.

If there is a campaign where they say we want number one, number two and we are going to campaign to have your number four beat your number three, Perin Davey, your result will be ashes in your mouth, because you’ll get neither.

I mean if Barnaby Joyce is having a go at you about discipline, you know you’ve messed up.

Updated

With 48 hours to go, you are about to get a bunch of editorials from major media outlets on who deserves your vote.

Guardian Australia has editorialised on the election. But it’s not on who you should vote for. It’s about the issues which should be driving your vote:

With just 12 years to limit the global climate catastrophe, citizens here and around the world are demanding governments stand up to vested interests and act. The UK parliament has declared a climate emergency, the idea of a Green New Deal is gaining traction in the US and beyond, and students around the world are engaging in spontaneous activism to force change.

But in Australia the Coalition appears deaf to the rising clamour from the electorate. After tearing itself apart and dumping a prime minister to avoid implementing a functional climate plan, it clings to an obviously deficient emissions reduction target and has been forced back to Tony Abbott’s discredited climate policy because the hard right will countenance nothing else. That’s a policy that has seen Australia’s greenhouse emissions continue to rise for the past five years and that would put no constraint on continuing increases in the future.

The idea that a major party should seriously propose we waste money for little result for another three years, when we have no more years to waste, is a shocking abrogation of responsibility. Scott Morrison’s dismissive response to a UN report finding that the world is sleepwalking towards an extinction crisis, and his parliamentary stunt of fondling a lump of coal, underline the contempt with which he seems to treat the electorate’s legitimate and rising concerns.

If you care to read the whole piece, you’ll find it here:

Updated

Meanwhile, it has been a very early start for Scott Morrison, who headed to Flemington markets in Sydney at the crack of dawn, to talk about the aspirations of small business owners (I assume).

The man of many caps passed on donning the pineapple cap.

That’s a bunch of votes gone in Queensland right there.

A stall holder hands his pineapple hat to Prime Minister Scott Morrison
A stall holder hands his pineapple hat to Scott Morrison. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Updated

Meanwhile, this has quite a few people giggling this morning – and not just from the side of politics you would think

Have a go to get a go seems to have disappeared.

But we are on the verge of an aspirational-palooza with Scott Morrison about to deliver his National Press Club address.

The final Guardian Essential poll before Saturday’s election is out today, and the survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the same as last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is 38.5% (up from 38% a week ago) and Labor’s is 36.2% (up from 34%).

Both major parties recorded an improvement in primary votes within the margin of error as the campaign enters its final days – the Greens are on a primary vote of 9.1% (down from 12% a week ago), One Nation on 6.6% (down from 7%) and others/independents are on 9.6% (up from 9%).

Scott Morrison remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, but he has dropped three points in a week, slipping back to where he was just after the leadership spill last August. Morrison is preferred by 39% of the Guardian Essential survey to 32% for Shorten.

You can read the whole story here:

Scott Morrison is visiting the Sydney Markets in Flemington in the electorate of Reid this morning. We will refrain from any comparisons to any former prime ministers and raw onions.

Morrison eats a chestnut at a fruit and vegetable stall at the Sydney Markets.
Morrison eats a chestnut at a fruit and vegetable stall at the Sydney Markets. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images
Don’t do it, mate.
Don’t do it. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Making a mint.
Whiff of that. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images

Updated

Just one more of these updates to go

On the flipside, I knew One Nation could be weird, but I didn’t realise it had changed the pledge of allegiance. Maybe it happened when Pauline Hanson became president for life.

Updated

I missed this yesterday, but there are some very interesting searches in there.

And yes, I know that a lot of these searches are not what you think the media has been talking about. But it shows that a lot of people are paying attention to policy and that warms my jaded dark heart.

Updated

There may be a new record in pre-polling, but that also means that the final vote count may be delayed. Which, unless there is a strong push one way or the other, could mean that we won’t know the result of the election on Saturday night.

But one of the big betting sites has announced it has already paid out $1.3m to punters who voted on a Labor victory, ahead of a single vote being counted. The site reported seven out of 10 voters put their money with the opposition.

Updated

Good morning

We have entered the final stretch and the end is in sight.

Despite a new record of pre-polling voters having been set, with more than 3 million people already heading to voting booths, there are still a bucketload of undecided voters out there and the next 48 hours is all about them.

And so, the leaders will be making their final pitches, directly to them. Scott Morrison is heading to Canberra for the traditional leaders’ address to the National Press Club. Bill Shorten declined his Press Club invitation, and instead will speak at Blacktown, where Gough Whitlam delivered the “It’s Time” speech.

Morrison will be arguing that it’s too risky to make a change. Shorten will be all about it’s too risky not to make a change.

And both have to make sure their message resonates.

This election campaign has been very strange to observe, because there is no national “mood” – it is all coming down to individual seats and communities and those issues are very, very different.

Victoria looks like it hasn’t finished giving the Coalition a walloping. Turns out you can’t go all hard-right in a state with progressive voters and not lose a few electorates along the way. Queensland too, is a strange one. Speaking to both sides, no one has any idea what is going on. Maybe Herbert falls to the Liberals, but then maybe Flynn and Petrie go to Labor. Bonner and Leichhardt are looking very close. Dickson seems to be changing daily. Brisbane can go where the government does, but Dawson looks safe. Capricornia too. But I can’t give you much of an idea, despite the almost hourly messages flying around, because the on-ground campaigns have been roller-coasters.

But that ride continues for another 48 hours, so I hope you’re ready.

Once again, there is not enough coffee in the world, but we can do this.

Let’s get into it.

Updated

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