Western Australia
The Liberal party managed to hold on to most of its seats in the west, despite predictions that frustration at the Barnett Liberal government could see as many as four seats fall to Labor. Labor’s Matt Keogh, who has been greeting commuters at Armadale train station and warning them of changes to Medicare for six months, performed as expected and picked up the new seat of Burt.
Still in play is Cowan, held by Liberal MP Luke Simpkins. Labor candidate Anne Aly was leading the two party preferred vote on Sunday morning by a slim 0.73% margin off the back of a 6% swing to Labor, but the conventional wisdom that postal votes favour conservative parties could see Simpkins regain ground. Government frontbenchers attacked Aly over her de-radicalisation program, which was actually sponsored by the Coalition government, in the last few weeks of the campaign, which was taken by Labor as a sign they were concerned about losing the culturally diverse electorate.
It wasn’t all bad news for the Liberals: Julie Bishop experienced a boost in her primary vote in “golden triangle” seat of Curtin and the Liberal party had positive swings in the outback seats of Durack and O’Connor.
Tasmania
A large swing against the Liberal party is a return to politics as normal in Tasmania.
The island state recorded a 9.4% swing against the Labor party in 2013, the largest in the country, off the back of anger at the state Labor government’s handling of the collapse of the forestry industry.
That anger saw three Liberal MPs, dubbed the three-amigos, take over the safe Labor seats of Braddon and Lyons and the marginal seat of Bass.
The re-setting of the Labor vote in Tasmania with a swing of almost 9% against the Coalition on Saturday, helped considerably by the campaign on Medicare, saw those three seats change again.
Liberal MP Andrew Nikolic lost Bass to Ross Hart, Lyons MP Eric Hutchinson lost to Brian Mitchell, and Brett Whiteley lost Braddon to Justine Keay. Franklin, held by Labor’s Julie Collins, and Denison, held by independent Andrew Wilkie, remained unchanged.
Tasmania has the oldest and sickest population in the country, one of the highest levels of welfare dependency, and one of the lowest levels of educational attainment. Labor’s campaign, focusing on health, education, and inequality, resonated with their concerns.
Victoria
There was very little change on the surface in Victoria, but a huge increase in the Greens primary vote in the inner-city seats of Higgins, Melbourne Ports, and Batman indicated those seats could turn Green at future elections.
As of Sunday morning Labor’s David Feeney was ahead in Batman and expected to retain the inner-north seat, despite a 9.16% swing to Greens candidate Alex Bhathal.
The Liberal Party’s Stephanie Perri was a whisker ahead in Chisholm, held by retiring Labor MP Anna Burke; Liberal MP Jason Wood is leading in La Trobe, and Liberal candidate Chis Crewther, who replaced retiring Liberal MP Bruce Billson, is just ahead in Dunkley. They were seats the Labor party had hoped to win; there’s a suggestion the Liberal Party’s campaign around the Country Fire Authority dispute neutralised a possible Labor swing.
The central Victorian seat of Murray, held by retiring MP Sharman Stone, did change hands, with former state MP and Fremantle Dockers football coach Damian Drum winning decisively over Liberal candidate Duncan McGauchie. Former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella’s bid to win back the border seat of Indi failed, with incumbent independent Cathy McGowan increasing her margin by 4%.
South Australia
The change in South Australia came from newcomer party the Nick Xenophon Team, with ex-Liberal staffer Rebekha Sharkie winning the seat of Mayo from her former boss, Liberal MP Jamie Briggs.
The Liberal Party is also behind in the seat of Hindmarsh, in Adelaide’s western suburbs, with Labor candidate Steve Georganas slightly ahead of incumbent Matt Williams.
The Nick Xenophon Team ran a good campaign in Grey, which Liberal MP Rowan Ramsey has held with a two party preferred margin of less than 2% on NXT candidate Andrea Broadfoot. NXT also beat Labor to be the second party in the seat of Baker, which was decisively returned to the Liberal Party.
Xenophon campaigned heavily on retaining the state’s manufacturing industry, which is struggling to recover from car manufacturer Holden downsizing local production.
New South Wales
Labor has gained the psychologically important bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, with former MP, Mike Kelly, claiming victory over Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy. The bellweather status of the seat is under threat after an electoral redistribution.
A statewide swing of 3.5% away from the Coalition, greater than the 3.2% swing nationally, also saw Labor pick up Macquarie, Mcarthur, Lindsay, and Barton.
Of those four the most historically significant is Barton, where Labor’s Linda Burney has become the first Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander woman elected to the House of Representatives.
There was speculation on Sunday that Malcolm Turnbull’s decidedly inner-city aesthetic had not played well in western Sydney, but the seats of Lindsay and Mcarthur were heavily targeted by Bill Shorten and Macquarie was the site of the first leaders debate, which Shorten won.
The Liberal Party is just ahead in the south coast seat of Gilmore, after a 3.6% swing towards Labor.
Queensland
The Liberal National party seat lost to Labor in Queensland was Longman, held by staunch Turnbull ally Wyatt Roy. Roy lost the seat to Labor’s Susan Lamb, a United Voice union campaigner.
Labor is also ahead in Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert and Forde, all held by the Liberal National Party, off the back of a 2.6% swing.
Herbert, centred around Townsville, had been a particular focus of Labor’s campaign and was the focus of debate around the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, which the Coalition argued was not as serious as scientists made out. Incumbent Ewen Jones experienced a 6.9% swing against him.
Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson is also close with a swing of almost 6% against the immigration minister, but he is expected to retain it.
LNP MP Luke Howarth has pulled ahead in Petrie, but the contest is yet to be decided.
But the biggest change in Queensland was the return of the One Nation party. Pauline Hanson easily secured enough votes to join the senate and it’s possible she could have enough support to fill a second or third quota.
Northern Territory
Labor’s Luke Gosling won the Darwin seat of Solomon from Country Liberals MP Natasha Griggs, a loss that has been put down to reaction against the chaotic Territory government.
Labor’s Warren Snowden strengthened his hold on the seat of Lingiari, giving Labor a clean sweep of Territory seats.
