Renfrewshire could become a virus mega hotspot by Christmas, it is feared.
Data has been crunched by London’s Imperial College and if the wave continues the County will be swamped with cases.
Using scientific analysis, boffins say Renfrewshire and neighbouring East Renfrewshire both have a 95 per cent probability of having more than 500 cases per 100,000 population by December 25.
Only West Lothian has a higher probability at 98 per cent.
The scenario could play havoc in the region during the holidays.
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Imperial’s covid calculator predicts every Scottish council area except the islands will become a hotspot, with more than 100 cases per 100,000 population.
But Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire are joint second in the table of possible “super-hotspot” areas.
They are followed by South Lanarkshire on 94 per cent, with Glasgow way down the list on 74 per cent.
The college uses data on reported cases, weekly deaths and mathematics modelling.
An Imperial College spokesman said: “The model is based on a self-renewal equation which uses time-varying reproduction number Rt to calculate the infections.
“However, due to a lot of uncertainty around reported cases in early part of epidemics, we use reported deaths to back-calculate the infections as a latent variable.
“Then the model utilises these latent infections together with probabilistic lags related to SARS-CoV-2 to calibrate against the reported deaths and the reported cases since the beginning of June 2020.
“This latest prediction assume no change in current interventions such as lockdowns and school closures.”
Full table on probability of super-hotspot status at Christmas
Aberdeen City - 38%
Aberdeenshire – 31%
Angus – 5%
Argyll and Bute – 24%
Clackmannanshire – 35%
Na h-Eileanan Siar – 7%
Dumfries and Galloway – 11%
Dundee City – 15%
East Ayrshire – 83%
East Dunbartonshire – 81%
East Lothian – 64%
East Renfrewshire – 95%
Edinburgh City – 76%
Falkirk – 78%
Fife – 54%
Glasgow City – 74%
Highland – 23%
Inverclyde – 51%
Midlothian – 84%
Moray – 54%
North Ayrshire – 95%
North Lanarkshire – 87%
Orkney – 0%
Perth and Kinross – 58%
Renfrewshire – 95%
Scottish Borders – 7%
Shetland Islands – 0%
South Ayrshire – 68%
South Lanarkshire – 94%
Stirling – 65%
West Dunbartonshire – 86%
West Lothian – 98%
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