Ahead of Cameroon's 12 October presidential election, the opposition remains divided, despite agreement on the need to unite behind a candidate to face off against President Paul Biya, who is seeking an eighth term. Meanwhile, the United Nations has sounded the alarm over whether tensions in the country will make free elections impossible.
The UN on Tuesday said that growing restrictions in Cameroon surrounding the upcoming election "raise fears" over whether voters will be able to freely choose their candidate.
"A safe and enabling human rights environment is essential for peaceful, inclusive and credible elections. It regrettably appears that this is not the case in Cameroon," said UN rights chief Volker Turk.
His Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said restrictions were being imposed on opposition activities, with several gatherings banned.
There have also been concerns regarding the exclusion of certain political figures from the race, as well as irregularities in voter registration, the OHCHR said in a statement.
'A crucial choice'
President Biya – who at 92 is the world's oldest head of state – announced in July that he would run again for an eighth term. If he is successful, he will be running Cameroon until he is 99.
He is currently running against at least 11 other candidates – with this division raising concern among the opposition that none will have a chance of winning.
Talks took place among opposition figures throughout August, and a collective of leading Cameroonian intellectuals last week published an op-ed calling on the opposition to unite, in order to achieve political change.
The collective – which includes lawyer Alice Kom, film director Jean-Pierre Bekolo and academics Stéphane Akoa and Baba Wame – is urging politicians to conduct "serious negotiations" and put aside their "personal ambitions" in favour of a "common strategy" and a single candidate, which members called a "crucial choice".
But some fear the opposition is still too divided to achieve a consensus at this stage.
According to Enrica Picco, Central Africa director for the International Crisis Group (ICG): "The parties did not seize the opportunity to offer a strong alternative, though this is not the first time they were told to identify a single candidate to challenge Biya."
Failed negotiations
Picco told RFI that even if his intention to run did not come as a surprise, "many Cameroonians, inside and outside the country, still hoped that President Biya would have listened to the many calls not only from opposition parties and civil society, but this time also from his own party and allies, to step down after 42 years in power".
She called the failure to unite behind a single candidate a weakness of the opposition movement, and added that discussions on this had also taken place last year, and the year before that, with no results.
"Negotiations never really ended up in anything concrete, the different opposition candidates are divided. They all think that they should lead the opposition and an agreement, at this point, is very unlikely to happen," Picco added.
According to lawyer Akere Muna, the only hope is to nominate Maurice Kamto – who came second to Biya in the 2018 presidential election, representing the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC).
This year, however, Kamto's candidacy was rejected by the electoral commission, Elecam, on the grounds that another individual, Dieudonné Yebga, had also applied to run under the banner of the same party – MANIDEM.
Both have now been excluded from the running, because parties are not allowed to submit two candidates under Cameroon's electoral code.
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Conflict zones
This lack of cohesion and the perception of a lack of real opposition could result in a low turnout, the ICG is warning – as could the instability in the country.
According to the organisation, rural areas and those in conflict zones could be particularly affected, with voters having to weigh up the risks involved in getting to polling stations.
"In urban areas," she added, "we can expect more or less the same participation as in 2018 [54 percent]. Parties are not calling for a full boycott of the election."
The conflict in northern Senegal has seen candidates and political leaders of all stripes flock to that part of the country ahead of the election.
Following visits from Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maïgari, former members of Biya's government and allies of the president, Finance Minister Louis-Paul Motaze recently paid a working visit on behalf of Biya.
Made up of three regions – Adamawa, the North and the Far North – the area represents more than a third of the national electorate.
"In the northwest and southwest, a conflict between Anglophone separatist groups and the government has been ongoing since 2017, and in the far north we still have a heavy jihadist presence – mostly targeting civilians with an increase in attacks and kidnappings in the past few months," Picco told RFI.
"We also have extreme weather events, like flooding that left thousands of people homeless, in the past couple of years," she added, explaining that in those regions it could prove extremely difficult for people who want to vote to even reach polling stations.
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'Electoral ceasefire'
"For the Anglophone region, what we recommend is for both the government and the separatists to make some [form of] political gesture. For the government: to release some Anglophone political prisoners, who have not been accused of violent crimes. And for the separatists: to allow people to be free to move to vote, and not target civilians," said Picco.
She added that the ICG had suggested "an electoral ceasefire".
These measures would protect civilians and state civil servants going to the Anglophone region for the vote.
"Those people are likely to be targeted from both sides – from separatists, who have already announced that they will not allow people to vote, but also from the Army, because they are likely to react to the separatist violence," Picco added.
In terms of the far north, she believes it's vital for Cameroon to reinforce border control ahead of the election, especially along the Nigerian border where the risks of jihadist attacks is extremely high, as is the likelihood of their attempting to disrupt the vote.
