What is happening inside North Korea? Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent Yujiro Okabe interviewed Koh Young-hwan, a former North Korean diplomat who defected to South Korea in 1991.
Okabe: How do you see the current situation inside North Korea?
Koh: North Korea has seen the staying power of its regimed weakened due to the spread of the new coronavirus. This is because the closure of its national border with China has dealt a severe blow to its economy.
Until the U.S.-North Korea summit talks in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February last year, there was a feeling of expectation among people in North Korea that their lives would improve with the lifting of economic sanctions that had been imposed on North Korea. But [as the talks broke down without any deal] the sanctions were not lifted. Not only that, rice rations for the families of senior officials of the Workers' Party of Korea, the government and the military who live in the central part of Pyongyang have not been distributed since the last distribution was made between February and March. Although the supply of rice to these officials themselves [if not their families] has been continuing, there is information saying that in order to do so, part of the "No. 2 Warehouse," which stockpiles food for times of war, has been released.
Opening the border with China could lead to the spread of the coronavirus within the country, but trade with China will not be possible if North Korea continues closing the border. Unrest is spreading among the people, as they fear the "March of Suffering" -- a period of food crisis that caused a huge number of famine deaths in the 1990s -- may occur again.
If a second wave of the global pandemic occurs and the closure of its border with China continues for a prolonged period, there is even the possibility of North Korea facing a regime crisis. Should internal discontent grow, the county will again take provocative actions.
Q: It is said that during the "March of Suffering," the distribution of food to senior officials supporting the regime was not disrupted.
A: Kim Jong Il, then leader of the Workers' Party of Korea, reportedly said back then, "It will be fine as long as I have Pyongyang people and the military," but at the present, the people in Pyongyang have been shaken. Making South Korea into an "enemy" this time was probably intended to serve a purpose in that regard. This means to say that North Korea aimed to redirect people's resentment at Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, toward South Korean President Moon Jae In.
Q: What is the current situation of the black markets trading food and daily necessities?
A: The prices of rice are stable, but it is just because the authorities are effectively controlling the prices. In reality, they are often traded at different prices. Such daily necessities as sugar, MSG, soybean oil, toilet paper and wheat flour are also running short. The amount of fertilizer supply to farms has dropped by one-third from last year, I heard.
Q: North Korea is increasing its provocations toward South Korea. Are there any objectives, other than diverting people's discontent?
A: In order to ease economic sanctions, North Korea wants to move U.S. President Donald Trump before the presidential election in November. By firing intercontinental ballistic missiles for that end, Pyongyang may lead the United States to deploy its aircraft carriers around the Korean Peninsula, possibly raising military tensions, as seen in 2017. But the North Korean military cannot afford to get ready for military action. Therefore, it may have attempted at attacking the United States indirectly by striking South Korea, its weakest opponent.
Q: What is the background for Kim Yo Jong, a sister of Kim Jong Un, coming to the forefront in the process of its provocative actions?
A: The intention is probably to train Kim Yo Jong, by pushing her to the front. Kim Jong Un seems to be in poor physical condition. It will take at least 10 years for his son, thought to be around 10 years old, to be able to succeed his father. Should something happen to him before then, Kim may probably be trying to entrust Kim Yo Jong with the tasks of "the reign behind the curtain," in which a woman -- like an empress dowager figure -- assuming the helm of state affairs in place of an emperor who is still young to do so.
Q: What are your grounds to think so?
A: There have recently been too many unnatural things seen in North Korea. When Kim Jong Un made his first public appearance on May 1 after a long absence, at a ceremony for the completion of a fertilizer plant, not only was his face swelling as if it were about to burst, but he also rode a cart when making an inspection tour of the plant. There was also a time when Kim Jong Il, then chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea and the father of Kim Jong Un, used a cart while rehabilitating from a stroke he suffered in 2008.
On the tiered platform set up during the ceremony, Kim Yo Jong was seated [alongside a vice chairman of the party and others] near Kim Jong Un. She probably sat near her brother so as to help him if he tottered on the platform, for instance.
Although it would ordinarily never happen, the state-run media of North Korea has been reporting that Kim Yo Jong is exercising general authority over the country's policy toward South Korea, and that she has given "instructions" to the party on the basis of the "authority" granted by Kim Jong Un.
Q: Some observers have said that Kim Jong Un, wary of being infected with the coronavirus, has been refraining from conducting his activities.
A: There is little, if any, possibility of Kim Jong Un getting infected with the virus. When I served an interpreter for Kim Il Sung for the first time, I went to a clinic in Namsan, Pyongyang, four days before [the summit talks], and underwent a health checkup for a whole day, including taking a blood sample. I was allowed to meet the supreme leader for the first time just two days later, when the findings of the health checkup were made. As medical technologies have advanced ever since, more thoroughgoing management should be in place.
The possibility of Kim's having some sort of [health] problems is high, but there is no decisive factor. In addition to diabetes and neurovascular diseases, which are said to be his chronic illnesses, there is a likelihood of his suffering from kidney diseases, as his face was swollen.
Q: Kim Jong Un has put on hold the military action plans against South Korea that were drawn up with the instructions of Kim Yo Jong.
A: It was probably to keep the authority of Kim Yo Jong from rising too much, even while fostering her. In the past, there was an example of Kim Jong Il having entrusted his sister Kim Kyong Hui with the task of being in charge of the light industries division of the party. But this time, Kim Yo Jong has been in charge of the country's overall policy toward South Korea, with her instructions extending across the whole party. People in North Korea could come to view Kim Yo Jong as a successor to Kim Jong Un. As the plans have been put on hold, rather than suspended, there may have also been an intention to wait and see how the United States and South Korea move in the future.
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