“I always thought of him as a chaser,” Willie Mullins said of Faugheen (3.20) immediately after the horse won the Neptune at the last Cheltenham Festival. But at some point over the summer, the Irish champion trainer changed his mind and, much though it goes against my instincts to be backing a chasing prospect in a Champion Hurdle, there is little room for doubt that he has the necessary talent.
Unbeaten in eight career starts, winning by daylight each time, Faugheen got his third Grade One success in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton when last seen. Trailing by eight lengths was Purple Bay, who had just won the Elite Hurdle, while the third, Blue Heron, stuffed 17 lengths on that occasion, landed the Kingwell next time.
Faugheen’s jumping is a potential source of disaster, especially if he repeats the two errors he made on his only previous Cheltenham start. But he was a novice at the time and is still entitled to be improving on that score.
This is his greatest test to date and it is possible that he will respond disappointingly to a battle but there has been no sign of any such weakness to date. He is the right favourite.
Kitten Rock makes each-way appeal at a massive 33-1. This five-year-old has a most progressive profile and will be given every chance by the canny Noel Fehily, who pinched a Champion Hurdle three years ago.
Jezki may well step up on his form in Ireland this winter but one begins to suspect that the first-time hood made a significant contribution to his success in last year’s race. If it is no longer helping him as much, things could go wrong here for such a keen sort in a race that may lack a strong early pace.
The New One is feared most of those that ran in last year’s race and it will be interesting to see how close he can get if granted a clear run this time. No winner would be more popular than Hurricane Fly but I shall not be betting that he can achieve at the age of 11 what he could not do at 10.
1.30 Douvan is a gorgeous animal but this is much more of a speed test than anything he has so far encountered. Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge has oozed class in his three runs since arriving from France and his breeding suggests a drier surface should actually produce an improved performance. He comes from a yard that has won this twice and has fielded the runner-up for the last four years.
2.05 Thrill-seeking gamblers will be delighted to back Un De Sceaux at 8-11, his eyeballs-out style of attack offering simultaneously the promise of an easy win and the possibility of disaster if he should misjudge the next fence. He is an exceptional horse whose only failure was a fall when well clear. Perhaps that will happen again on his first visit to Cheltenham but I tend to think he will cope well. Vibrato Valtat is another classy beast and a scorching pace might elicit a career-high from him.
2.40 The Druids Nephew ran a huge race here in November, when beaten only by Sam Winner, now a Gold Cup candidate. They pulled 25 lengths clear of a dozen rivals and another bold bid can be expected from a horse who seems to have improved since joining Neil Mulholland last summer.
4.00 Odds-on about Annie Power is hard to take, in light of an injury-enforced absence stretching to 300 days. Her stablemate Glens Melody came close to shocking Quevega in this race last year and looked better than ever at Warwick last time, so 5-1 seems fair.
4.40 From the stable that won this last year and in 2008, Sego Success appeals most. He has improved significantly for each start over fences and hinted at bottomless stamina at Warwick last time. Willie Mullins’s Perfect Gentleman looks over-priced at 14-1.
5.15 The eye is drawn to that string of ‘1’s next to Leap Dearg but the Irish horse has been fired up the handicap and may have no secrets left to disclose. The suspicion is that Keltus has much more to offer, having finally shown some promise over fences last time, when the ground may have been softer than ideal. He was a slightly unlucky fourth in a handicap hurdle at the last Festival.
