The private sector remains concerned about farm activity next year, fearing that lower agricultural and agro-industrial shipments will slow the country's exports to 5% growth for a total of US$268 billion (8.8 trillion baht).
Sanan Angubolkul, vice-chairman of the Board of Trade, who on Tuesday participated in a joint meeting between the International Trade Promotion Department and the private sector to evaluate export prospects, said sugar and rubber are particular areas of concern.
"The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking's forecast that has tipped the country's exports to expand 5-7% next year was made on the export sector base," Mr Sanan said. "This is different from the government's evaluation at the recent joint meeting of Thai trade centres worldwide, which forecast on the area base.
"We, the private sector, expect some items, such as sugar, jewellery and gold, and rubber, are likely to see gloomy prospects based on their poor performance in the first 10 months of this year."
Sugar exports fell 4% for the 10-month period, with those of jewellery and gold shrinking 10% and rubber falling 23% from the same period last year.
The private sector forecasts exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products to grow just 3% next year to $38.7 billion, with those of industrial products to rise 6% to $216 billion. Goods with promising export prospects are automobiles, electronics, finished oil and food.
This year, the shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products were projected to grow 7% to $37.46 billion, while those of industrial goods are expected to grow 9% to $204.80 billion.
According to Mr Sanan, next year's key risk factors include higher oil prices, volatile foreign exchange rates and the trade war.
The private sector also urged the next government to rev up expanding free-trade area agreements with important trade partners to increase Thailand's export competitiveness and come up with a clearer stance on whether to participate in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Commerce Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong said recently that Thailand would not join the CPTPP during this government's term.
He said Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, the government's point man on the economy, cited a lack of preparation time before the trade pact takes effect on Dec 30.
There are many steps and Thailand is unlikely to complete them in time, Mr Sontirat said.
Banjongjitt Angsusingh, director-general of the ministry's International Trade Promotion Department, reiterated on Tuesday that the Commerce Ministry remains resolute in its 8% growth forecast for this year and next.
She said the growth will be driven by the Asean market (+8.3%), China and Hong Kong (+12%), South Asia (+8%), Russia and CIS (+10%), East Asia including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea (+7%), the EU (+3%), North America (6.1%), the Middle East (+3%), Latin America (+6%) and Australia (6%).
Ms Banjongjitt said the department will focus on key Asian regions, including China, India, South Asia and Hong Kong.
Thailand will promote more potential export products such as pet food, herbs and cosmetics and will explore both online and offline markets, she said.
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