Fare evasion could be costing Transport for London (TfL) up to £21million more than officially reported, it has emerged.
Officials have revealed that they incorporate a 10 per cent reduction on the estimated value of the amount lost to evaders due to the “limitations of available data”.
TfL say they lose £190million annually to those who choose not to pay for their journeys on the network – a rate of around 3.5 per cent. Transport chiefs say they hope to bring the rate down to 1.5 per cent by the end of 2031.
However, they have now admitted that the amount lost could be as high as £211million per year – far higher than the £168million in estimated extra revenue raised from fare rises on buses and Tubes earlier this year.
The admission, made for the first time in a disclosure to the Tube Alerter website and shared with the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS), is due to officials not wanting to “overstate the estimated level of revenue loss”.
This means that the publicly stated figure of £190million “represents an evidence-based assessment that takes these limitations into account.”
TfL say the adjustment is made due to staff deriving their estimates from intelligence-led activity at some locations where fare evasion is more likely to occur, and therefore “may not be fully representative of the network as a whole”.
“The estimated value of fare evasion incorporates a 10 per cent reduction to reflect the medium confidence level associated with the overall assumptions,” an internal TfL review concluded.
“This recognises the limitations of the available data and the absence of a system that automatically matches passenger journeys with payments made.”
Newer style technology, such as modern gateline infrastructure which is currently being tested in New York, will be able to more accurately track those passing through the barriers without paying, TfL predicts.
The internal confidence assessment and supporting assumptions have never been published separately, officials confirmed, as they said publication of such “detailed information…could compromise TfL’s ability to prevent, detect and respond to fare evasion, ultimately impacting the protection of public revenue”.
Thomas Turrell, the transport spokesman for the City Hall Conservatives, told the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS): “Sadiq Khan has lost control of fare evasion.
“Instead of showing leadership and gripping the issue, he has trapped TfL in a doom loop where underestimating data leads them to not take the issue seriously, causing more underestimation.
“It is wrong, it must stop, and Londoners’ confidence must be restored that the Mayor is serious about tackling this crime that fare-paying commuters are expected to pick up the £200m bill for.”
Festus Akinbusoye, a former Police and Crime Commissioner who sits on Westminster City Council, added: “This is unfair for millions of Londoners who work hard and play by the rules.
“Instead of tackling fare evasion – which has doubled on the London Underground – TfL and the Mayor have been too busy fudging statistics to downplay the problem.”
A TfL spokesperson said: “Robust analysis of fare evasion on London’s transport network is a vital tool in tackling it, and the estimated total cost of fare evasion is just one of many figures we produce to measure the scale of the issue.
“All figures produced are estimates that are calculated according to TfL’s best interpretation of the data, in line with industry standards.
“The estimated cost of £190m represents an evidence-based assessment that takes limitations of the data used into account.”
