In a shocking blockbuster of a trade, the Packers dealt fantasy superstar Davante Adams to the Raiders for two 2022 selections (a first- and second-rounder). Adams also gets a five-year contract in Las Vegas that’s worth more than $140 million.
There’s a lot to break down here, so let’s start with the Raiders.
Obviously, Adams is going to see his fantasy value take a hit. He averaged more than 21 fantasy points per game in three of his last four seasons, during which time he had found the end zone a combined 47 times. Adams has also scored more than 329 fantasy points three different times during in single seasons in that time (2018-21).
If you’re wondering, no Raiders wideout has scored more than 269.4 fantasy points in a single season since 2000. I know it means nothing for Adams in the here and now, but it’s still a troublesome trend if you think Adams’ value doesn’t decline.
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Also, as much as I like Derek Carr, he is a downgrade (like most quarterbacks) from Aaron Rodgers. The good news is the two do have a past rapport from their time together in college at Fresno State. The bad news is that the Las Vegas offense also has Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to absorb targets in the pass attack.
Those two players combined to average 16 targets per game last season. That total is very likely to decline with Adams in the mix, so both Waller and Renfrow become a bit less attractive in fantasy drafts. Waller will remain a No. 1 tight end, but I’d drop him down a few spots at the position. Renfrow, who was the WR10 last season, falls down into the No. 3 fantasy wideout conversation as his target share is destined to decline.
Carr, who has never been an elite fantasy quarterback, is the biggest winner.
The former Bulldog has the best weapons he’s ever had in the NFL (by a mile), and an offensive-minded coach in Josh McDaniels who’ll be calling the shots every week. Carr, who was the QB14 last season, could easily push his way into the top 10 next season.
In Green Bay, well, it’s not good.
Reports suggest Rodgers knew Adams was on his way out when he agreed to his new contract, so there were no shenanigans going on behind the scenes. The issue is that without Adams, the reigning league MVP will be throwing the football to the likes of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers, based on the current roster.
Of course, Green Bay will be looking at free-agent wideouts and rookie receivers in the upcoming 2022 NFL draft, especially with its new draft capital. So before we bury Rodgers in fantasy football, let’s be realistic. The Packers are going to bring in some weapons (Odell Beckham Jr., Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry and Cole Beasley come to mind as free agent wide receiver options), so Rodgers will likely remain a No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season … just not a top-five option at the position.
I’d also be aware that whomever the Packers do bring in, whether it’s veterans, rookies or a combination of the two, the eventual top wideout in the Land of Cheese could become a fantasy star with a future Hall of Famer throwing him the football.
Stay tuned, folks.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
